Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.298 | EURUSD 1.13985 | AUDUSD 0.69629 | NZDUSD 0.66184 | USDCAD 1.31806 | USDCHF 0.97205 | GBPUSD 1.27401 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.14120 | 1.13956

USDJPY                 107.410 | 106.786

GBPUSD               1.27537 | 1.27255

USDCHF               0.97232 | 0.96945

AUDUSD              0.69724 | 0.69545

USDCAD               1.32032 | 1.31719

NZDUSD               0.66531 | 0.66172

EURCHF                1.10853 | 1.10633

EURGBP               0.89528 | 0.89437

EURJPY                 122.461 | 121.855

For Today

  • GBP: A slow rise from the lows just below the 1.2735 level to push gradually through to deep into the Tokyo session testing lightly above the 1.2750 areas before settling in to range around the level through to the grey hour, likely strong congestion above the 1.2760 level with possibly weak stops on a test through the 1.2780 areas and a quick push through the sentimental levels and momentum building to a stronger test through to the 1.2900 level and limited congestion in the area likely to slow the rise however, very little technical wise to stop further movement higher other than Brexit news. Downside bids light through the recently broken 1.2700 level and weak stops limited through there with better bids then appearing through to the 1.2650 level however, any dip towards the 1.2620 level could see momentum taking the market back onto the 1.25 handle for further tests of the recent lows.
  • JPY: Opening around the 107.30 level the early market saw the USDJPY moving through into early Tokyo pushing to the 107.40 level however, the selling then appeared and continued through the session pushing the market firmly through to the 107.00 level with minimal stops on the push through to test the 106.90 levels for the move into the grey hour, Congestion likely through the downside with weak stops on a break through the 106.80 areas and support are likely to start appearing on any push through to the 106.20-00 areas and the congestion then increasing on any attempt to break through to the 105.80 levels. Topside offers light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops likely on a break above the 108.30 areas and opening a move through to the 108.80-109.00 level where better offers are likely to appear.
  • AUD: A quiet rise from the opening around the 0.6965 level to test through into the low 0.6970 areas before dipping quickly through to the 0.6955 areas and the range complete for Asia, the market ranged through to the grey hour settling on the 0.6955-60 areas for the quiet session, , Topside offers from the current levels are a little thin but increase as the market pushes towards the 0.6980 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7050 and then some stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: A steady push through the 1.1400 level topping just above the 1.1410 for the move into the grey hour, with steady volume going through and all dependent on the Fed’s next move however, the question in the market is what will the ECB do about the shrinking economy? Congestive offers still remain to the topside with possible weak stops above the 1.1420 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1440-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1480-1.1500 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance to the 1.1550 level and the market moving into the ranges from last summer, downside bids light back through to the 1.1350 area with some possible stronger congestion in the area however, through there leaves very little until the approach of the 1.1320-00 area where some older bids could still be holding.

 

Overnight News

USD:

Trump comfortable with outcome from pivotal Xi talks Official HAA

Trump looks to maintain his engagement in meeting with China’s Xi at G20 – RTRs

Trump Xi meeting likely to be on 2nd day but details still to be confirmed RTRs

Fed’s Kaplan says he’s concerned rate cut may fuel Imbalances BBG

Trump pressured by congress to stay tough on Huawei in Xi summit – BBG

SGD/USD/CNY:

Trade war risks splitting world economy for decades SGD PM Nikkei

GBP:

UK parliament ready to back no deal Brexit, Johnson argues BBG

IRR:

Iran says talks with US impossible; US says it wants talks HAA

ForMin spokesman Mousavi latest US sanctions means closing channel of diplomacy forever HAA

CNY:

The dark alley in China’s credit market suddenly getting rough – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Trade Balance 12mth YTD (MAY) A 5.492b | C 5.53b | P 5.459b

NZD       Trade Balance (MAY) A 264M | C 200m | P 433m

NZD       Exports (MAY) A 5.81b | C 5.61b | P 5.55b

NZD       Imports (MAY) A 5.54b | C 5.40b | P 5.11b

JPY         BOJ Minutes of April Policy Meeting (APR)

JPY         Corporate Service Price (YoY) (MAY) A 0.8% | C 1.0% | P 0.9% | R 1.0%

07:05                     AUD RBA’s Bullock Gives Speech in Berlin

10:00                     GBP CBI Reported Sales (JUN) C -3 | P -27

10:00                     GBP CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales (JUN) C -8 | P -20

12:30                     CAD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (APR) C 0.3% | P 1.4%

12:45                     USD Fed’s Williams Makes Opening Remarks at Finance Forum

13:00                     USD House Price Index (MoM) (APR) C 0.2% | P 0.1%

14:00                     USD Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (JUN) C 2 | P 5

14:00                     USD Revisions: Retail Sales

14:00                     USD New Home Sales (MAY) C 685k | P 673k

14:00                     USD New Home Sales (MoM) (MAY) C 1.8% | P -6.9%

16:00                     USD Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Housing

17:00                     USD Powell Discusses Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

19:30                     USD Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Ottawa

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady rise through the Asian session with the market dipping from the opening to the 1.2735 level then spending a few hours pushing through to the 1.2755 level deep into the Tokyo session , the market held through to the opening in London with a strong run to the 1.2785 areas before finding sufficient offers to turn the market lower and the market falling back the 1.2750 areas and then into weak stops on a trip to the 1.2725 level where the market bounced back to the opening level and another slow rise this time only to the 1.2760 levels and holding through into the NYK session dipping and then retesting that level for a second time, NYK however, had other ideas and the market quickly found itself under pressure on a sustained test through to the 1.2710 areas trading there through to the London close before starting a slow rise up towards the opening levels for the close almost flat on the day.
  • JPY: A very slow rise on a limited range for the day with the USDJPY pushing from the opening levels through into Tokyo to the 107.40 areas from the 107.30 area, the market slowly continued through to the grey hour pushing towards the 107.50 level but with very little conviction before moving into London and reversing the move through to the NYK session and posting the lows around the 107.25 area, NYK saw some faster movement and extended the highs through the 107.50 level however, as with the previous rally it was soon back to the 107.25 area and the range then started to squeeze tighter through to the close settling imperceptibly lower than the open.
  • AUD: A slightly higher opening saw the market trading around the 0.6935 level through into the Tokyo session, the market quickly rallied through to the 0.6950 area with AUDJPY seemingly the focus in early trading, the market stalled around the level for several hours before moving through to the 0.6960 level and again trading quietly through the Tokyo lunch and into the London session, early London were slow sellers back through the 0.6950 level and the market eventually settled down to a tight range around the level deep into NYK and only once the London session left for the day did we see the Oz pushing for the 0.6970 level and the highs for the day just short of that level and finishing the day holding its gains.
  • EUR: A slow but steady rise throughout the day with the Asian session opening around the 1.1370 level and pushing into the Tokyo session testing above the 1.1380 levels with plenty of offerings to be scrubbed out, the market ranged through Asia increasing the highs in miniscule amounts and moving into the London session testing the 1.1390 level, even through London and into the NYK session the market continued to grind away at the topside pushing to just short of the 1.1400 level for the move into the NYK period, a slight set back with limited selling seeing the market dip to the 1.1380 level before starting the move to the 1.1400 level again testing lightly through and as with the other session slowly increasing the highs as it went along through to the 1.1405 area before settling back for the close just below the level.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Leading Index CI (APR F) A 95.9| P 95.5

JPY         Coincident Index (APR F) A 102.1 | P 101.9

EUR        German IFO Business Climate (JUN) A 97.4 | C 97.5 | P 97.9

EUR        German IFO Expectations (JUN) A 94.2 | C 94.6 | P 95.3

EUR        German IFO Current Assessment (JUN) A 100.8 | C 100.3 | P 100.6

USD        Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUN) C -1.0 | P -5.3

 

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.