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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
GBP: The Cable lifted off the opening levels pushing to the 1.2360 level and holding quietly deep into the session before pushing through to the 1.2380 areas and ranging just below the level to the grey hour, Downside congestion remains through the 1.2350 level and is likely to increase into the 1.2300 level before some weak stops competing with further congestion on a break through the level and bids likely to increase on any move towards the 1.2200-50 areas. Topside offers likely to be weak through to the 1.2400 level with limited congestion on any move through the level building steadily stronger the further through the 1.24 handle the market moves with strong offers particularly around the 1.2500 level.
JPY: A slow drift from the opening around the 107.75 areas moving through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 107.60 level before basing there and ranging around the 107.65 areas through to the grey hour, Topside offers building around the 107.80 area however, they are likely to be a little weak and a push through to the 108 handle and stronger offers likely to be strong through to the 108.50 areas. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with strong bids in the area and weak stops likely to be through the 106.80 areas with stronger bids through the 106.60 level and congestion continuing through to the 106.00 level.
AUD: Fairly quiet for the Oz with the market opening just above the 0.6750 level and struggling to the 0.6760 area in early Tokyo before dipping back to test through the opening level and then holding for several hours before a slow push through to the 0.6765 areas for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with some offers then holding through to the 68 cents level again and stronger offers through to the 0.6820 level with possible weak stops just above the level opening only a small space before running into likely congestive offers. Downside bids light through to the 0.6740 level and stronger bids in the area with bids likely to increase on any test to the 0.6720-00 level with weak stops limited through the 0.6680 level possibly covered by stronger congestion through to the 0.6650 areas.
EUR: A slow steady rise from the opening lows around the 1.0945 areas and pushing slowly to hold around the 1.0965 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be weak on any move through to the 1.1000 areas with congestion around the 1.1020 level and weak stops just beyond the level and opening the market through to the 1.1040-60 areas where congestion is likely, stronger offers then appear on any push through the 1.1080-1.1100 levels. Downside bids through the yesterdays lows and then increasing as the market moves towards the 1.0920-00 areas, with stops likely on any dip through the 1.0880 areas and opening a longer-term downside move.

Overnight News
NZD:
RBNZ Governor says confident that rates will remain low for a number of years RTRS
NZ Worker survey shows caution about job prospects – Westpac
CNY:
China taaps its private sector to boost its Military, raising alarms WSJ
China’s top three home builders face $80B debt crunch BBG
Fear of debt slows China’s response to latest economic troubles BBG
China condemns US congressional committees’ approval of bill on Hong Kong – Xinhua
USD/CNY:
US imposes sanctions on certain China Co’s, over Iranian oil BBG
EUR:
ECB’s Lautenshlaeger resigns from Executive board in shock move BBG
GBP:
UK’s Johnson comes out fighting and demands a Brexit election – BBG

Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
0700 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) C 9.6 | P 9.7
0735 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda speech
0900 EUR ECB Publishes Economic bulletin
1200 MXN Economic Activity IGAE (YoY) (JUL) C 0.3% | P -0.9%
1330 USD Advance Goods Trade Balance (AUG) -$73.4b | P -72.3b
1330 USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized QoQ (2Q T) C 2.0% | P 2.0%
1330 USD Continuing claims (SEP14) C 1666k | P 1661k
1330 USD Core PCE (QoQ) (2Q T) C 1.7% | P 1.7%
1330 USD Gross Domestic Product Price index (2Q T) C 2.4% | P 2.4%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP21) C 211k | P 208k
1330 USD Personal Consumption (2Q T) C 4.7% | P 4.7%
1330 USD Wholesale Inventories MoM (AUG P) C 0.2% | P 0.2%
1430 EUR ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Frankfurt
1445 GBP BoE Governor Carney Speaks in Frankfurt
1500 USD Pending Home Sales YoY (AUG) P 1.7%

Harry Hindsight

GBP: A steady drift over the day saw a rampant USD across the board, opening around the 1.2500 level the market held just below the level before moving through into the Tokyo session and the drift started with the market slipping through to the London session holding around the 1.2470 level, early London saw the market spike a little higher through to the 1.2485 areas before dropping off through to the 1.2440 area before pausing and then basing through the early morning session around the 1.2430 area, the move into the NYK session saw the market testing steadily through the 1.2400 level with weak stops sending the market to the 1.2370 level and another brief pause the move through to the end of London saw further selling appear and this time the market settled on the 1.2350 level and then holding quietly through to the close.
JPY: USDJPY saw steady buying from the opening pushing through into the Tokyo session testing to the 107.20 level some minor selling for the fix saw the market pushed lower and a brief spike to the 107.00 level to make the lows, the market then renewed its slow move higher pushing through to the 107.40 areas and then held through early London holding around that level before early NYK moved in and a slow rise pausing around the 107.50 level and then renewing the move through to the end of London and testing the 107.85 level for the highs holding quietly through to the close around the 107.80 areas before drifting just a touch into the close.
AUD: Holding through into the Tokyo session and dipping into the Tokyo fix and continuing a steady drift through to the 0.6785 area before bouncing a little and pushing to make the high of the day just beyond the opening around the 68 cents level, falling back from the highs just as quickly testing through to the 0.6780 areas holding deep into the London session around the level before breaking lower as the market moved towards the NYK session falling steadily through to make the lows around the 0.6740 area before bouncing and holding around the 0.6750 area through to the close.
EUR: Opening on its highs around the 1.1020 area the market moved through into the Tokyo before starting a steady drift through to the 1.1000 level into the London session and then stronger selling appeared and the market broke through the 1.1000 level initially dipping through the 1.0980 areas before holding briefly before breaking again with weak stops triggering a move through the 1.0950 area and holding the 1.0940 level through to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD Trade Balance (AUG) A -1565M | C -1350M | P -685M
NZD Trade Balance 12Mth YTD (AUG) A -5484M | C -5400M | P -5463M
JPY BoJ Minutes of July Policy meeting
NZD RBNZ Official cash rate (SEP 25) A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG) A 42576 | C 43000 | P 43342
USD MBA Mortgage applications (SEP20) A -10.1% | P -0.1%
EUR CPB Releases World Trade Monitor
USD New Home Sales MoM (AUG) A 7.1% | C 3.3% | P -12.8%
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (SEP20) A 2412k | C -276k | P 1058k

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