Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.411 | EURUSD 1.10209 | AUDUSD 0.67862 | NZDUSD 0.63726 | USDCAD 1.32495 | USDCHF 0.98802 | GBPUSD 1.28818 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10298 | 1.10185
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.628 | 108.388
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28865 | 1.28774
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98913 | 0.98805
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67986 | 0.6784
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32512 | 1.32197
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.63931 | 0.63773
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09074 | 1.08876
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85619 | 0.8554
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.807 | 119.436
For Today
- GBP: A quiet session with the market holding around the 1.2880 level with meagre gains from the opening to test just beyond the 1.2885 level before slipping lightly through the opening level and holding in the area through to the grey hours, Downside limited bids through the 1.2800 area but likely to be stronger on any dip through to the 1.2780-70 areas and stronger from there likely to be around the 1.2750 area with possible mix of stops, a push through the downside is likely to see weaker congestion through to the 1.2700 level and possible stronger stops of a tip through the level, topside offers light through to the 1.2900 areas with some patches of offers around the level opens up a test through to the 1.2920 area with weak stops likely on a push through to the 1.2910 area however, from 1.2920 onwards the market is likely to find stronger congestion appearing and increasing through to the 1.2960-1.3000 level where stronger offers are likely to appear.
- JPY: Rising from the opening around the 108.40 for the move into the Tokyo session the market managed a slow push through to the 108.60 areas before holding quietly through to the grey hours in a long drawn out move, Downside bids into the 108.20 area before stronger bids are likely to appear on any push at the 108.00 area, some weak stops through the 107.80 level and a likely test through to the 107.50 areas with stronger bids along a trend line likely to slow the descent with stronger congestion through into the 107.00 level. Topside offers light through to the 108.50 areas, a move through the level could see some light weak stops on a move through however, any approach to the 109.00 level is likely to see stronger offers reappearing and continuing through to the 109.50 level with stronger offers into this month’s highs.
- AUD: Very quiet for the Oz with the market holding tightly around the opening 0.6787 area through into the Tokyo session where some light AUDJPY buying helped the Oz through to the just below the 68 cents level and holding around the 0.6795 area through to the grey hour on light volume, Downside bids light through the 0.6770 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
- EUR: Very quiet lift from the 1.1020 level to push quietly through to test towards the 1.1030 areas and holding around the 1.1025 for the run through to the grey hours, Downside congestion continues in the current area with the congestion likely to extend through to the 1.1000 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 109.50 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.
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Overnight News
NZD:
RBNZ’s Hawkesby say February cut would require changed outlook BBG
Orr: Forward guidance as to future policy is important
Orr: Monetary policy cannot directly resolve uncertainty
Orr: Unconventional policy is possible but not core forecast
Orr: Interest rates need to stay low for a long time
Orr: The door is open for a rate cut if needed
Orr: starting to see signs of pickup in activity
Orr: Lower exchange rate is adding stimulus
CNY:
Impossible to defend: China goes rogue with new weapon NZH (on Chinese AI enhance weapons)
USD/CNY:
US and Chinese negotiators are nearing a trade deal, but Pres. Trump is not ready to sign off WSJ
US and China struggle to finalise pase one trade deal – FT
USD/CNY/HKD:
If China puts troops in Hong Kong, Washington should end city’s trade SCMP
EUR:
Germany is not out of the economic woods yet, and nor is China – TEL
ECB’s Lagarde will echo Draghi’s stance but QE won’t help growth economists say RTRS
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (OCT) A 52.6 | P 48.4
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â New Home Prices MoM (OCT) P 0.53%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Bank of Canada’s Poloz gives Speech in San Francisco
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â IP YoY (SEP F) A 1.3% | P 1.1%
1000Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI YoY (OCT F) C 0.7% | P 0.7%
1000Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core YoY (OCT F) C 1.1% | P 1.1%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Advance MoM (OCT) C 0.2% | P -0.3%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Export Price Index YoY (OCT) P -1.6%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (OCT) C -0.1% | P -0.1%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Control Group (OCT) C 0.3% | P 0.0%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas C 0.3% | P 0.0%
1400Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales MoM (OCT) C 2.0% | P -0.6%
1415Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â IP MoM (OCT) C -0.4% | P -0.4%
1415Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing (SIC) Production C -0.4% | P -0.5%
1500Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories (SEP) C 0.1% | P 0.0%
1800Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Baker Hughes US Rig Count (NOV15) P 817
Harry Hindsight
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- GBP: A slow drift through the Asian session opening around the 1.2850 level and testing only slightly higher before heading into the Tokyo session and starting a slow drift lower through the session, the move into the grey hour saw the market testing through to the 1.2825 areas before moving into pre-London and steadily starting a recovery through to the 1.2840 areas while retail sales numbers looked a little soft it would seem the market took it in its stride and pushed through to the 1.2860 areas to hold quietly for a few hours, the market dipped again to the 1.2640 level and then ran through to deep into the NYK session before finding strong buyers appearing and a slow push through to the 1.2880 level and a long run through to the close unable to push through the 1.2890 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY opened quietly and hold around the 108.80 areas before moving into the Tokyo session dipping a little before pushing quietly through to the 108.85 areas to make the highs of the day, the run through to the London session saw the market holding around the 108.70 area for the most part with minor dips to the low 108.60’s however, not until London moved in did the market dip again this time basing around the 108.60 level deep through into the NYK session and only as London left the market did the USDJPY put in a stronger push through to the 108.25 level to make the low with limited recovery to the 108.40 areas.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6840 level the market held through to the Tokyo session, and the employment numbers added to the CNY data saw the market quickly gap to the 0.6810 area before finding some bids the weakness saw the market testing through the 68 cents level however, it struggled to move to far below and remained around the figure level deep into the London morning before eventually pushing through to the 0.6780 areas on the move through to the NYK session, NYK added its weight to make the lows with a light penetration of the 0.6770 area before starting a long steady climb to the 0.6790 level over the course of several hours to the close.
- EUR: A limited range for the Euro through most of the session opening around the 1.1000 area and struggling with the first attempt to push through the 1.1010 level the market drifted through the Tokyo session testing through the figure level and holding into the grey hours around the 1.0995 area before recovering and pushing through the 1.1010 areas in a limited rally into the opening in London only to fall back in early morning trading to test the 1.0990 level before returning to the figure, NYK were steady buyers once the got going and the market pushed through to the upper 1.1020’s to finish the day just off those highs.
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Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP annualized s.a. QoQ (3Q P) A 0.2% | C 0.9% | P 1.3% | R 1.8%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP s.a. QoQ (3Q P) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.3% | R 0.4%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Nominal GDP QoQ (3Q P) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation (NOV) A 4.0% | P 3.6%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance (OCT) A -5.0% | C -3.0% | P -3.0%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment change (OCT) A -19k | C 15k | P 12.5k
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate (OCT) A 5.3% | C 5.2% | P 5.2%
CNY Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY (OCT) A 5.2% | C 5.4% | P 5.4%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YoY (OCT) A 4.7% | C 5.4% | P 5.8%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YTD YoY (OCT) A 5.6% | C 5.6% | P 5.6%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Property Investment YTD YoY (OCT) A 10.3% | P 10.5%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales YoY (OCT) A 7.2% | C 7.8% | P 7.8%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales YTD YoY (OCT) A 8.1% | C 8.1% | P 8.2%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Surveyed Jobless Rate (OCT) A 5.1% | P 5.2%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index MoM (SEP) A | C 1.1% | P 0.4%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP n.s.a. YoY (3Q P) A 1.0% | C 0.8% | P 0.0%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP w.d.a. YoY (3Q P) A 0.5% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP s.a. QoQ (3Q P) A 0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY (OCT) A 2.7% | C 3.4% | P 3.0%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB’s Guindos speaks in London
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP s.a. YoY (3Q P) A 1.2% | C 1.1% | P 1.1%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment YoY (3Q P) A 1.0% | P 1.2%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Product s.a. QoQ (3Q P) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index YoY (SEP) A -0.1% | C -0.2% | P -0.3%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Continuing Claims (NOV 2) A 1683k | C 1685k | P 1689k
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 9) A 225k | C 215k | P 211k
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Powell appears before house budget committee
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 8) A 2219k | C 1440k | P 7929k
MXNÂ Â Â Â Â Overnight Rate (NOV 14) A 7.50% | C 7.50% | P 7.75%
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