Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.555 | EURUSD 1.10643 | AUDUSD 0.6822 | NZDUSD 0.65522 | USDCAD 1.32387 | USDCHF 0.98799 | GBPUSD 1.31416 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10709 | 1.10626

USDJPY                108.662 | 108.558

GBPUSD              1.31553 | 1.31361

USDCHF               0.98819 | 0.98765

AUDUSD             0.68371 | 0.6819

USDCAD              1.32448 | 1.32294

NZDUSD              0.65681 | 0.65401

EURCHF               1.09348 | 1.09278

EURGBP              0.84210 | 0.8415

EURJPY                 120.274 | 120.123

For Today

• GBP: Opening a little lower and pushing lightly through into the upper 1.3130;’s before slowly recovering on a very quiet session to test above the 1.3150 level and holding quietly In a narrow range to the grey hours, topside offers into the sentimental levels and likely to continue slowing gains for the moment however, each push through the figure will see weak stops and the market struggling once beyond the 50-60 level and into the next big figure until 1.3400 comes into view and stronger offers, downside bids light through to the 1.3100 level with late comers possibly moving up into the area, a push through will see weak stops appearing on a move through the 1.3050 area and better bids then reappearing into the 1.3020-00 area before stronger stops start to appear.
• JPY: Pushing off the opening lows the market tested steadily through the Tokyo opening to push lightly above the 108.65 area and then remained in touch with the level through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 109.00 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.20 areas with weakness through to strong offers around 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only to the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
• AUD: Light trading with a little dip from the opening to test lightly through the 0.6820 area before holding around the 0.6825 through to the Tokyo session, rising from the level after a couple of hours to test through towards the 0.6840 area the market failed to push on in light trading before dipping on the move to the grey hours testing back into the low 0.6820’s for the grey hours, Topside congestion limited around the 0.6850 area then increasing on any test through to the 0.6880-0.6900 areas with strong offers likely to be mixed with light stops and only once the market pushes through the 0.6830 area will the stops count and force the market into the usually congested areas around the 0.6850 and stronger offers thereafter. Downside bids light through to the 0.6750 area with some strong congestion through the area and increasing as the market pushes for the 0.6720-0.6700 levels with any weak stops likely to be buried below the 0.6680 level however, a push through to the 0.6670-60 area is likely to see strong stops appearing from the break out crowd and the market vulnerable to a deeper move.
• EUR: A slow move through the early part of the session holding around the 1.1065 level and slowly rising in the Tokyo session to push just through the 1.1070 areas before drifting a little of the highs to move into the grey hours, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

Overnight News

AUD:

RBA’s Lowe: GDP Surprise was weakness in consumption growth

Lowe: GDP outcome was broadly in line with expectations

Lowe: Many people have high debt so takes longer on spending

CNY:

China tells government offices to remove all foreign computer equipment Guardian

Chinese inflation hits eight year high as pork prices double

USD:

Democrats expected to unveil two articles of impeachment

HKD:

Hong Kong police say bombs left in school grounds defused

USD/CNY:

Trump wants movement from China to avoid Dec 15 tariffs, US Agri secretary

Deal unlikely this week as US distracted by USMCA – SCMP

USD/KRW:

US-N. Korea on collision course as New Year deadline looms

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       NAB Business Confidence (NOV) A 0 | P 2

CNY        CPI YoY (NOV) A 4.5% | C 4.3% | P 3.8%

CNY        PPI YoY (NOV) A -1.4% | C -1.5% | P -1.6%

CNY        New Yuan Loans CNY (NOV) C 1200.0b | P 661.3b

CNY        Aggregate Financing CNY (NOV) C 1470.0b | P 618.9b

0600       JPY         Machine Tool Orders YoY (NOV P) P -37.4%

0930       GBP       Monthly GDP MoM (OCT) C 0.1% | P -0.1%

0930       GBP       Construction Output YoY (OCT) C -0.1% | P 0.5%

0930       GBP       Industrial Production YoY (OCT) C -1.2% | P -1.4%

0930       GBP       Manufacturing Production YoY (OCT) C -1.4% | P -1.8%

0930       GBP       Monthly GDP (3M/3M) (OCT) C 0.0% | P 0.3%

0930       GBP       Trade Balance (OCT) C -2700m | P -3360m

0930       GBP       Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn (OCT) C -3500m | P -4032m

0930       GBP       Visible Trade Balance (OCT) C -11700m | P -12541m

1000       EUR        Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (DEC) P -1

1000       EUR        German ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC) C 0 | P -2.1%

1000       EUR        German ZEW Survey Current Situation C -22.1 | P -24.7

1550       USD       IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva Speaks in Washington

2330       AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence (DEC) P 4.5%

Harry Hindsight

 

• GBP: Rising from the opening levels 1.3135 area to test steadily through to the 1.3150 level into the early part of the Tokyo session before dipping and holding quietly through to the grey hours around the 1.3145 level, A quick move higher to test the 1.3180 level before slowly ebbing back to the 1.3160 level and ranging around the level through to the NYK session, NYK were steady sellers testing through to the 1.3140 level and then ranging around the 1.3150 level through to the close.
• JPY: Opening a little higher the market tested through the 108.65 levels before dipping on the Tokyo opening to the 108.55 holding the level through to the grey hours before drifting off from the level as some strong GBPJPY selling moved through the market, the market held the 108.45 level through to NYK posing the lows just below the level, NYK buying was steady through the session and a little bit better than the general market volume wise, taking the USDJPY through to late in the session to push lightly through the early highs to test into the high 108.68 area before drifting through to the 108.60 level and dipping on the close.
• AUD: A very tight day for the Oz with the market opening a little lower around the 0.6835 area and after an early attempt to fill the small gap saw the market dropping a little into the Tokyo opening to base tightly along the 0.6830 level before rising back to the 0.6840 level the move into the London session saw the market dropping through to the low 0.6820 areas and holding around the 0.6825 level through to NYK where the market recovered to the 0.6830 level, final hour saw the market dropping back from the 0.6830 area to test the lows again on a very slow day.
• EUR: Limited movement saw the Euro slowly dipping too the 1.1055 level before moving through the grey hours rising slowly and continuing into the London session to test through to the 1.1065 level peaking just below the 1.1070 area and holding deep into the session before testing through towards the 1.1080 areas to hold deep into the NYK session and with London closed the market slipped back to the lows steadily only managing a recovery through to the 1.1055 areas.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

CNY        Trade Balance (NOV) A $38.73b | C $44.50b | P 42.54b

CNY        Trade Balance CNY A 274.21b | C 300.30b | P 301.28b

JPY         Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY (NOV) A 2.3% | P 2.2%

JPY         Bank Lending incl. Trusts YoY (NOV) A 2.1% | P 2.0%

JPY         GDP Annualized s.a. QoQ A 1.8% | C 0.6% | P 0.2%

JPY         Trade Balance BOP Basis (OCT) A 254.0b | C 138.8b | P 1.1b

JPY         Bankruptcies YoY (NOV) A 1.39% | P 6.84%

JPY         ECO Watchers Survey Current (NOV) A 39.4 | C 39.7 | P 36.7

JPY         ECO Watchers Survey Outlook s.a. (NOV) A 45.7 | C 44.6 | P 43.7

CHF        Unemployment Rate (NOV) A 2.3% | C 2.3% | P 2.2%

EUR        German Trade Balance A 21.5b | C 19.3b | P 21.1b

MXN      CPI (YoY) (NOV) A 2.97% | C 3.01% | P 3.02%

CAD       Housing starts A 201.3k | C 215.0k | P 202.0k

CAD       Building Permits MoM (OCT) A -1.5% | C 2.8%B | P -6.5%

AUD       RBA’s Lowe gives speech in Sydney

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