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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
GBP: A slow rise through the session from the opening around the 1.3340 area to test lightly to the 1.3400 level before resting quietly just below the level through to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 1.3500 level with likely weak stops on a move through the 1.3530 area with limited congestion through the 1.3550 level and increasing into the 1.3600 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.3300 level with some stronger bids likely into the level and continuing through to the 1.3250 area and increasing into the 1.3200 level with strong stops likely through the level.
JPY: Making the low on the opening of Tokyo the market dipped through the 109.30 level before recovering to just above the 109.35 level and then although the market touched the 109.45 areas before holding quietly just below the 109.40 areas to the grey hours, Topside strong offers around 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only to the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
AUD: A very limited range through the session opening a little higher than Fridays close to dip back through to the 0.6870 level to fill the gap, the move through into the Tokyo session saw the highs attempted again before again slipping back and holding quietly around the 0.6870 level to the grey hours, Topside offers likely to be around the 0.6950 area with limited weakness through 0.6960 before stronger offers start to appear on any move through to the 0.6980-0.7020 levels, possible stops through the level and the market then limited to the 0.7050 area and congestion then increasing on any attempt to push to the 0.7080-0.7100 levels, downside bids limited through to the 69 cents level with weak stops likely to be increasing on any dip through the 0.6880 area and the downside then opening up again through to the 0.6750 levels.
EUR: A little higher on the opening the market drifted around the 1.1125 levels before slowly rising through to above the 1.1135 level through to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 1.1200 with option plays likely through to the 1.1220 area and possible weak stops through level and opening up further gains however, congestion is likely to increase into the 1.1250 areas but finally testing into the stronger congestion from earlier in the year with offers likely to increase into the 1.1275-1.1300 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level with bids likely on any dips too the 1.1080 before stronger stops appear and the market again opening to weaker congestion on a test through to the 1.1000 level where stronger bids are likely to appear.

Overnight News
CNY:
Home price growth in China slows to least in almost two years
PBoC tells property speculators that homes are for living in – BBG
CNY/USD:
China will determine success of trade Politico
US and China reach phase one deal easing trade tensions – BBG
AUD:
Add wildfires to the burdens weighing down Australia’s economy BBG
Australia sees A$6.1b surplus in 2020-21 vs. 11b from April
Australia sees underlying cash balance of A$5b in 2019-20
Australia sees 2.25% GDP growth in 2019-20 vs. 2.75% in April
Australia sees 2.5% wage growth in 2019-20 vs. 2.75% in April
RBA Won’t get MYEFO fiscal present – AFR
NZD:
NZ Economists now see 2019-20 GDP Growth 2.2% NZEIR BBG
NZ service industries grew at slower pace in November BBG
EUR:
German industry slump set to cast shadow on economy through 2020 BBG
CHF:
SNB Can cut rates if absolutely necessary Jordan
USD:
Trump impeachment advances as historic vote sends case to house BBG

Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD Performance Services index (NOV) A 53.3 | P 55.3
AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (DEC P) C 49.4 | P 49.7
AUD CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (DEC P) C 49.4 | P 49.9
AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (DEC P) C 49.5 | P 49.7
GBP Rightmove House Prices YoY (DEC) A 0.8% | P 0.3%
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (DEC P) A 48.8 | P 48.9
CNY New Home prices MoM (NOV) A 0.3% | P 0.5%
CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY (NOV) A 5.2% | C 5.2% | P 5.2%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (NOV) A 6.2% | C 5.0% | P 4.7%
CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (NOV) A 5.6% | C 5.5% | P 5.6%
CNY Property Investment YTD YoY (NOV) A 10.2% | P 10.3%
CNY Retail Sales YoY (NOV) A 8.0% | C 7.6% | P 7.2%
CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (NOV) A 8.0% | C 8.0% | P 8.1%
CNY Surveyed Jobless Rate (NOV) A 5.1% | P 5.1%
JPY Teritary Industry index MoM (OCT) A | C -3.6% | P 1.89%
0830 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (DEC P) C 52.0 | 51.7
0830 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composita PMI (DEC P) C 49.9 | P 49.4
0830 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (DEC P) C 44.6 | P 44.1
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (DEC P) C 50.7 | P 50.6
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (DEC P) C 47.3 | P 46.9
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (DEC P) C 52.0 | P 51.9
0930 GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (DEC P) C 49.2 | P 48.9
0930 GBP Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (DEC P) C 49.5 | P 49.3
0930 GBP Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (DEC P) C 49.5 | P 49.3
0930 GBP Office for Budget Responsibility publishes new forecasts
1400 CAD Existing Home sales MoM (NOV) P 0.0%
1445 USD Markit US Composite PMI (DEC P) P 52.0
1445 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (DEC P) C 52.6 | P 52.6
1445 USD Markit US Services PMI (DEC P) C 52 | P 51.6
1500 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (DEC) C 70 | P 70
1700 GBP BoE Publishes Financial Stability Report Stress Tests
2000 NZD Westpac Consumer Confidence (4Q) P 103.1
2100 USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows (OCT) P 49.5b

Harry Hindsight

GBP: The opening saw the market gapping higher on a strong exit poll number and the market testing from the 1.3420 level through to just above the 1.3500 areas to make the highs of the day, a reasonably quiet range through the Asian session with the market starting to drift lower on the move into the grey hours, with the count ongoing the Conservatives increased its hold over the election and finally the market saw 80 seats majority and opposition MP’s reduced, the market slipped through into the NYK session drifting through to the 1.3300 levels and holding around the 1.3340 levels to the close.
JPY: Higher from the opening as GBP moved quickly higher and so therefore dragged along the GBPJPY as stops were triggered along the way to the 109.55 area before dipping quickly back to make the lows just below the 109.20 level, bouncing back to the highs and then eventually moving into the Tokyo session again moving into the highs ad continuing with a steady rise through the day in quiet trading pushing through to the NYK session to test above the 109.70 level, early NYK sold the market back to the 109.30 level and there was a period of choppy trading snapping back towards the 109.60 level then dropping back again to the lows before slowly rising to the close just above the 109.35 level.
AUD: Gap on the opening saw the market easing through the 0.6930 level to push through to just below the 0.6940 area and Tokyo selling from the opening to test the 0.6910 area and define the early range through move through to the London session holding around the 0.6920 areas before dipping from the NYK session and dipping on the first move through the 0.6880 areas bouncing then running for a second time to hold into the 0.6865 areas to the close.
EUR: Euro rallied on the opening dragged by the movement in GBP testing towards the 1.1200 level before drifting and then holding through the Tokyo session around the 1.1175 areas, the move lower eventually appeared on the move into the NYK session, then slipping through to the 1.1115 level for a long run to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (NOV) A 51.4 | P 52.6
GBP UK General Election Polls Close
JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (4Q) A 6.8% | C 6.0% | P 6.6%
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (4Q) A 0 | C 4 | P 2
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (4Q) A 0 | C 3 | P 5
JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (4Q) A 20 | C 16 | P 21
JPY Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook (4Q) A 1 | C 3 | P 1
JPY Industrial Production YoY (OCT F) A -7.7% | P -7.4%
EUR France Sovereign Debt to be rated by Fitch
GBP BoE/TNS Inflation next 12mths (NOV) A3.1% | P 3.3%
USD Retail Sales Advance MoM (NOV) A 0.2% | C 0.4% | P 0.3%
USD Export Price Index YoY (NOV) A -1.3% | P -2.2%
USD Retail Sales Control Group (NOV) A 0.1% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (NOV) A 0.2% | C 0.4% | P 0.1%
USD Business Inventories A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.0%
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (DEC 13) A 799 | P 799

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