Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.136 | EURUSD 1.11043 | AUDUSD 0.68657 | NZDUSD 0.66521 | USDCAD 1.30388 | USDCHF 0.97388 | GBPUSD 1.30952 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11193 | 1.11061
USDJPY 109.278 | 109.021
GBPUSD 1.31172 | 1.30947
USDCHF 0.97430 | 0.9734
AUDUSD 0.68801 | 0.6864
USDCAD 1.30390 | 1.30267
NZDUSD 0.66568 | 0.66451
EURCHF 1.08298 | 1.08138
EURGBP 0.84824 | 0.84753
EURJPY 121.502 | 121.065
For Today
- GBP: A quiet session with a slow push from the opening back through the 1.3100 level and testing slowly through to the 1.3115 level and then ranging around the 1.3110 area through to the grey hours, Downside bids into congestion to the 1.3050 level and stronger bids into 1.3000 with the market then opening to a deeper move. Topside offers light through to the 1.3200 level with some limited offers through to the 1.3220 area with possible light stops on a move through, with stronger offers likely to increase on a test through to the 1.3300 level with stops above.
- JPY: A very quiet session for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 109.10 area and then drifting a little to hold the 109.00 level before rising to test the 109.25 level and hold quietly through to the grey hours around that level, Downside stops likely on a move through the 107.80 area and the market then open to the 107.50 level with some congestion and an old trendline suggesting some support and better bids congested below through to the 107.00 level, Topside offers stronger through to the 109.50 area with congestion holding the market however, beyond that the market again thickens on a push through to the 110.00 level with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening a larger move.
- AUD: A very limited Oz with the market initially slipping a little through the 0.6865 level in early trading before the Tokyo session saw the market pushing through to the 0.6875 area and slowly forcing its way to the 0.6880 level in limited trading, the market then held the 0.6875-70 areas for the most part through into the grey hours, Topside offers from the 0.7000 area through to 0.7020 where strong offers are likely to appear and while that topside should see weak stops the offers are likely to absorb any buying and continue through to the 0.7060 areas, downside bids now cleared through to the stronger 0.6850 areas and congestive bids likely to support the market for the short term through to the 0.6800 level before weakness again starts to appear on a dip through the 0.6780 areas.
- EUR: Very quiet opening around the 1.1150 level and then pushing quickly to just short of the 1.1170 level on the opening in Tokyo before drifting back to range around the 1.1155 level to the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.
Overnight News
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD Trade Balance A 5800m | C 4100m | P 4075m
CNY CPI YoY (DEC) A 4.5% | C 4.7% | P 4.5%
CNY PPI YoY (DEC) A -0.5% | C -0.4% | P -1.4%
0625 CHF Preliminary data on SNB Annual result
0700 EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a./w.d.a. YoY (NOV) C -3.6% | P -5.3%
0700 EUR German Trade Balance (NOV) C 21b | P 21.5b
0930 GBP BoE Governor Carney Speaks in London
1000 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (NOV) C 7.5% | P 7.5%
1200 MXN CPI YoY (DEC) C 2.76% | P 2.97%
1315 CAD Housing starts C 211.9k | P 201.3k
1330 CAD Building Permits MoM (NOV) C 1.0% | P -1.5%
1330 USD Continuing Claims (DEC 28) C 1719k | P 1728k
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 4) C 221k | P 222k
2130 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index P 53.7
2330 JPY Overall Household Spending YoY (NOV) C -2.0% | P -5.1%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Drifting from the opening to test into the Tokyo session barely holding the 1.3100 level before starting a slow climb through the opening highs around the 1.3125 level to test to the 1.3135 area, the move through the grey hours saw the market drifting a little to hold the opening level, grey hours buying saw the market pushing into the 1.3150 level with London adding a little weight to test the 1.3170 level for the high of the day, disappointing productivity numbers saw the market quickly drop back and Johnson’s first day back see’s EU rhetoric beginning to build even if a strong Conservative Government should hold the better hand, the quick drop saw the market touch through the 1.3100 level before bouncing a little back through the opening level and starting a slower move to set the lows just above the 1.3080 level, the move into NYK saw early buyers pushing back to the early Asian range however, once the London session left the market the Cable held quietly around the 1.3100 level to the close.
- JPY: It would seem a well known plan to launch Missiles at US forces at two airbases in Iraq was safe haven flows sending the USDJPY quickly from the opening 108.50 level through to the 107.85 area before Tokyo moved into the picture with some light buying before a second run to test to the 107.65 area to make the lows for the day, no significant damage and no retaliation on the day saw the market running steadily back to the 108.45 area and a slow run to the grey hours around the 108.40 with early London pressing the 108.50 level in quiet trading, as the market moved through to the NYK session the market rose through into the 108.75 area before holding through deep into the session and only really rallying once the London session had ended to push through the 109.00 level, the run to the close saw the market peaking around the 109.20 areas before drifting a little for the close.
- AUD: Choppy but limited action for the Oz with the market contained by the 0.6850 area on the downside and forming a solid base on early selling, the market recovered through the early part of Tokyo as the USDJPY recovered its nose dive and the Oz managed to lightly push above the 0.6880 areas but unable to test the 0.6890 level with any conviction, the run through to the London session saw the market holding around the 0.6870 areas before early London pressed higher again testing a little through the 0.6890 area to make the high of the day, the move through the balance of London saw the market drifting with limited recoveries from 10 pip sudden drops before again finally testing the 0.6850 level, a quick rise back to the 0.6875 level on the London close saw the market test to the 0.6880 area again before drifting to the close.
- EUR: Holding its own through the Asia the market dipped from the opening highs just short of 1.1200 and then slipped lower through to the 1.1190 area and held the range through to the grey hours, were early London sold slowly through to the opening testing the 1.1180 area, the market then ranged around the level through the first few hours before quickly testing the 1.1170 areas after poor German numbers, the market then ranged quietly through into the NYK session before starting a slow steady slide through to the lows around the 1.1135 area recovering only slightly for a long run to the close.
USD/IRR:
Trump take the off ramp after piece of Iranian theatre – CNN
Top US general: Iranian missile attack in Iraq appears to have been intended to kill personnel
Too early to tell if Iran is done after attack on Iraq bases
DefSec: Iran launched 16 short range ballistic missiles from at least three locations
DefSec: at least 11 missiles impacted Al Asad airbase at least one impacted in Erbil
DefSec: Nothing major damaged, targets hit included tents, parking lot, a helicopter was damaged
Iran threat seen as weakened by Trumps immigration – BBG
Explosion heard at Baghdad’s green zone Sumaria – Sky
A missile landed 100 metres from US embassy in Baghdad
US officials knew Iranian missiles were coming hours in advance – WPT
AUD:
Australia’s fires put farmers in double jeopardy – WSJ
Bushfires increase odds of a RBA rate cut in Feb – Moody’s
GBP/EUR:
And you thought Brexit was tough, with EU and UK unlikely to draw up a comprehensive trade deal in a year – NYT
Johnson’s aim of full 2020 Brexit deal impossible – EU says – BBG
USD/CNY:
Pres. Trump says China could buy up to $50b in US farm products – TWT
Asia-Pacific:
Moody’s outlook for Sovereigns in 2020 is negative
NZD:
NZ traffic gauges show economic slowdown finding a floor – ANZ
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (DEC) A 38.9 | P 40
JPY Labour Cash Earnings YoY (NOV) A -0.2% | C -0.2% | P 0.5%
JPY Real Cash Earnings YoY (NOV) A -0.9% | C -0.8% | P 0.1%
AUD Building approvals YoY (NOV) A -3.8% | C -11.7% | P -22.9%
JPY Consumer Confidence Index (DEC) A | C 39.5 | P 38.7
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. YoY (NOV) A -6.5% | C -4.7% | P -5.5% | R -5.6%
GBP Unit Labour Costs YoY (3Q) A 3.6% | P 3.6%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JAN 3) A 13.5% | P -5.3%
USD ADP Employment Change (DEC) A 202k | C 160k | P 67k | 124k
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (JAN 3) A 1164k | -3185k | P -11463k
USD Consumer Credit (NOV) A 12.513b | C 15.8b | P 18.908b | R 18976b
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.