Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.172 | EURUSD 1.11361 | AUDUSD 0.6897 | NZDUSD 0.66324 | USDCAD 1.30421 | USDCHF 0.96496 | GBPUSD 1.30774 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11423 | 1.11309
USDJPY 110.290 | 110.151
GBPUSD 1.30804 | 1.30654
USDCHF 0.96570 | 0.96431
AUDUSD 0.68997 | 0.68837
USDCAD 1.30509 | 1.30411
NZDUSD 0.66490 | 0.66279
EURCHF 1.07483 | 1.07444
EURGBP 0.85240 | 0.85132
EURJPY 122.839 | 122.659
For Today
- GBP: Holding quietly from the opening just short of the 1.3080 level the market made a couple of brief forays through the level but never anything convincing and the move into mid-Tokyo saw the market drop back quickly to the 1.3065 level to make the low before returning to the opening levels to hold above the 1.3070 level to the grey hours, Downside bids congested around the 1.2950 level and requires a forceful push to clear only to run into possibly stronger bids into the 1.2900 areas, weak stops likely to appear on any break through the level with plenty of congestion likely at each sentimental level through to the 1.2765 area where any break out if there is to be one awaits. Topside offers still remain through the 1.3090-1.3100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the level and opening a quick return to at least the 1.3150 area before stronger offers start to appear on any attempt to push the 1.3200 area, and break here will likely see stronger stops appearing and the market then likely to increase into the 1.3300 level.
- JPY: Rising from the 110.16 level into the Tokyo opening to test towards the 110.25 level before dipping into the official opening to hold the opening levels, Tokyo took it too its highs into the fix running through to just short of the 110.30 level before again slipping back to the opening once over saw the market ranging around the 110.20 to the grey hours, Topside congestion through the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 111.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 112.00 level, downside bids light through to the 109.00 areas with congestion likely to appear once through the 108.80 level and weak stops with the congestion likely to increase on any push through the 108.50 areas through to 108.00.
- AUD: Slipping a little from the 69 cents level the market held in a tight range through into the Tokyo session where quick selling saw the market dip through to the 0.6885 area recovering and resetting to the opening levels once the market had hit the 0.6905 areas, Topside offers into the 0.6920 area with possible weak stops through the level before congestion appears around the 0.6940-60 areas and increasing offers once the level is cleared through to the 0.6980-0.7000 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6850 with some congestion around the level and then continuing through to the 0.6800 level with stronger bids start to appear, weak stops through the 0.6780 areas however, the congestion then increases on any dip through to the 0.6750 levels.
- EUR: A quiet run through the early part of the session pushing a little through the 1.1140 level to create the high before slipping lower as Insider stories ran an item suggesting that Trump is going to impose 25% tariffs on European cars, this after Hogan’s earlier optimistic view, the market slowly slipped back into the 1.1130’s for the run to the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.
Overnight News
EUR/USD:
EU’s Hogan says Bloc want to deepen economic ties to US
Hogan: Speaks after 3 days of meetings with US officials
Hogan: He had very good talks with Lighthizer
Hogan: EU shares US Concerns about Chinese trade distortions
Hogan: EU Prefers negotiated deal with US on aircraft aid
Hogan: Washington state tax benefit for Boeing is unresolved
Hogan: US-E still talking about digital services tax
Hogan: Agriculture still sticking point in tariffs cut goal
Hogan: Any US tariffs on cars didn’t come up in his talks (see below for answer)
Hogan: Good news for Germany that car duties weren’t discussed
USD/EUR:
Trump to impose 25% European car tariffs over Iran policy – insider stories
JPY:
Japan bought most foreign bonds since Sep 2018 last week – MoF
Weaker Yen means Japan’s big bond buyers shy from foreign debt – BBG
CNY:
SARS like virus claims second life as pneumonia outbreak widens – BBG
USD:
Trump to nominate Shelton, Waller for Fed board – BFW
NZD:
NZ Manufacturing contracted in Dec, PMI shows – BBG
GBP:
Brexit relationship: EU reveals clues ahead of talks with UK – BBC
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD Government 5-month Financial Statements
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (NOV) A $22.9b | P %32.5b
NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 49.3 | P 51.4
CNY GDP YoY (4Q) A 6.0% | C 6.0% | P 6.0%
CNY GDP YTD YoY (4Q) A 6.1% | C 6.2% | P 6.2%
CNY GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q) A 1.5% | C 1.4% | P 1.5%
CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY (DEC) A 5.4% | C 5.2% | P 5.2%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (DEC) A 6.9% | C 5.9% | P 6.2%
CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (DEC) A 5.7% | C 5.6% | P 5.6%
CNY Property Investment YTD YoY (DEC) A 9.9% | P 10.2%
CNY Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A 8.0% | C 7.9% | P 8.0%
CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (DEC) A 8.0% | C 8.0% | P 8.0%
CNY Surveyed Jobless Rate (DEC) A 5.2% | P 5.1%
JPY Tertiary Industry Index MoM (NOV) A 1.3% | C 1.0% | P -4.6% | R -5.2%
0930 GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY (DEC) C 3.0% | P 0.8%
1000 EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (DEC) C 1.3% | P 1.0%
1000 EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (DEC F) C 1.3% | P 1.3%
1330 USD Building Permits MoM (DEC) C -1.5% | P 1.4%
1330 USD Housing Starts MoM (DEC) C 1.1% | P 3.2%
1415 USD Industrial Production MoM (DEC) C -0.1% | P 1.1%
1415 USD Manufacturing Production (DEC) C 0.1% | P 1.1%
1500 USD U. of Mich. Sentiment (JAN P) C 99 | P 99.3
1800 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (JAN 17) P 781
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet run higher from the opening moving from the 1.3040 level through to just below 1.3060 before dipping back to fill the gap and then holding quietly basing on the 1.3040 level through to midsession before running through to the 1.3050 level before drifting back into the grey hours and dipping through to the 1.3030 level into the London opening, the market bounced off the lows and pushed through to the 1.3060 levels again and ranged around the level deep into the session with NYK taking the market lightly through the 1.3070 level before slipping back and slowly pushing through towards the lows again, the move through to the London close saw the market racing higher pushing this time through to the 1.3080 level to make the high of the day drifting a little but holding through to the close just below the highs.
- JPY: A slow day for the USDJPY with the market opening quietly on its lows around the 109.85 area and catching a quick move through towards the 110.00 level on GBP/JPY buying before settling back and slowly rising through to the London session holding below the 110.00 level, London managed to penetrate the figure level before holding quietly through into the NYK opening, the market then started a strong rise pushing steadily through to the 110.15 levels and ranging around the area through to the close just off its highs.
- AUD: A quiet opening saw a quick rise into the Tokyo session as the USDJPY moved testing towards the 0.6920 level before slipping slowly back to hold around the opening 0.6905 areas to move towards the London session and some steady buying through into the NYK session and testing lightly above the 0.6930, after a short period in the NYK session the market dropped quickly back as the USD recovered a little, testing the 69 cents level once through the market slowly pushed through to the 0.6890 level before running out of steam and struggling to the close just short of the 69 cents levels.
- EUR: Asia was quiet with the market opening around the 1.1150 level and basing along the level through into the grey hours before dipping a little through before London moved in and testing through the 1.1160 level for the first time and ranging through into the NYK session holding the level, NYK opened with a little push and the highs was set just above the 1.1170 area and the bulk of the US numbers helped the USD start a recovery with the Euro dropping in waves back to test the 1.1130 level and a quiet range to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPY Machine Orders YoY (NOV) A 18% | C -5.4% | P -6.1%
GBP RICS House Price Balance (DEC) A -2.0% | C -8.0% | P -11.0%
AUD Home Loans Value MoM (NOV) A 1.8% | C 1.4% | P 2.1%
AUD Investor Loan Value MoM (NOV) A 2.2% | C 1.0% | P 1.5%
CNY New Home Prices MoM (DEC) A 0.35% | P 0.30%
EUR German CPI YoY (DEC F) A 1.5% | C 1.5% | P 1.5%
EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (DEC F) A 1.5% | C 1.5% | P 1.5%
GBP BoE Bank Liabilities/Credit Conditions Survey
EUR Accounts of ECB’s Dec Meeting
USD Retail Sales Advance MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%
USD Continuing Claims (JAN4) A 1767k | P 1803k | R 1804k
USD Export Price Index YoY (DEC) A 0.7% | P -1.3%
USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (DEC) A 0.2% | C 0.1% | P 0.2%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 11) A 204k | C 220k | P 214k
USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (JAN) A 17.0 | C 3.6 | P 0.3 | R 2.4
USD Retail Sales Control Group (DEC) A 0.5% | C 0.3% | P 0.1% | R -0.1%
USD Retail Sales ex-Auto and Gas (DEC) a 0.5% | C 0.4% | P 0.0% | R -0.2%
USD Business Inventories (NOV) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P 0.2% | R 0.1%
USD NAHB Housing Market Index (JAN) A 75 | C 74 | P 76
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