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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: A quiet session with decent volume through the day with the market rising just short of the 1.2930 level for the move into the Tokyo session and holding steadily through to midsession before starting a steady slide towards the 1.2900 level the level held and slowly started to move back towards the 1.2915 area just below the opening levels for the grey hours, Downside bids remain around the 1.2900 level with congestion through to the 1.2850 area and increasing around the level before lessening until close to the 1.2800 level and likely to be stronger, a dip below will likely see some stops appearing and the market open to the 1.2760 area where stronger bids are expected. Topside offers light through to the 1.3000 level and possibly with increased offers forming through to the 1.3050 level with limited stops likely for the time being.
• JPY: A slower session for the Oz however, that is nothing different to yesterdays Asian session, opening around the 111.35 area the market drifted through to the Tokyo session testing the 111.15 area, Tokyo came in slowly buying for the market to slowly push through to the 111.50 area and then holding quietly around the 111.40 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 111.80-112.00 with possible strong stops on a push through the 112.20 area with option plays likely to be around the levels, however, a push through the level is likely to see congestion building through increasing on any push towards the 113.00 level.
• AUD: A slow rise through to the release of the employment numbers to move off the 0.6675 areas and testing through to the 0.6685 area before dropping back quickly on the headline 5.3% unemployment number and 0.1% change however, given the circumstances it should have been more transparent for most, the Oz dipped steadily through to the 0.6650 pausing for a short period as the market soaked up the pressure before giving way and running through to the 0.6630’s in a slow move before bouncing back to the 0.6650 area for the move into the grey hours, Downside is likely to be hit and miss with congestion likely through the 0.6620-0.6580 area before weak stops appear and possible congestive bids then reappearing related to the 2008/2009 levels and the sentimental levels the key support areas. Topside offers light through to the 67 cents area with weak stops likely on a push through the 0.6720 area and possible short squeeze through to the 0.6750 and with enough impetus to the 0.6780 areas before offers appear in size.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.0805 areas the market moved through into the Tokyo session unchanged before quickly testing the 1.0815 level and dipping slowly into early morning before dropping quickly through to the 1.0795 areas and eventually finding light support into the 1.0790 area to hold through to the grey hours, Downside bids still remain into the 1.0780 level however, much of the congestion is now cleared and a move through the level is likely to see weak stops opening a test through to the 1.0760-40 areas and likely further congestion and possibly increasing into the 1.0720-00-1.0680 level before stronger stops start to appear and opening a larger move lower.

Overnight News
CNY:
Charts show China’s Economy remains completely paralysed – Zero Hedge
EUR/GBP:
EU delays its UK negotiating position over Macron’s demands – BBG
AUD:
Australia unemployment jumps as fires hit tourism, faming – DJ
Australia launches national inquiry into bushfires
EUR:
EU leaders to clash over money as Brexit blows hole in budget

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD Employment Change (JAN) A 13.5k | C 10.0k | P 28.9k
AUD Unemployment Rate (JAN) A 5.3% | 5.2% | P 5.1%
AUD Full Time Employment Change (JAN) A 46.2k | P -0.3k
CNY 1-year Loan Prime Rate (FEB) A 4.05% | C 4.05% | P 4.15%
CNY 5-year Loan Prime Rate (FEB) A 4.75% | C 4.75% | P 4.80%
0700 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence C 9.8 | P 9.9
0730 CHF Industrial Output w.d.a. YoY (4Q) P 8.0%
0930 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel YoY (JAN) C 0.5% | P 0.7%
1230 EUR Publication of account of ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting (JAN)
1330 USD Continuing Claims (FEB 8) C 1717k | P 1698k
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 15) C 210k | P 205k
1330 USD Philadelphia Fed Business outlook (FEB) C 11 | P 17
1500 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (FEB A) C -8.2 | P -8.1
1500 USD Leading Index (JAN) C 0.4% | P -0.3%
1600 USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 14) P 7459k
2200 AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (FEB P) P 50.2
2200 AUD CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (FEB P) P 49.6
2200 AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (FEB P) P 50.6
2330 JPY National CPI YoY (JAN) C 0.7% | P 0.8%
2330 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY (JAN) C 0.8% | P 0.7%
2330 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (JAN) C 0.8% | P 0.9%

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A quiet session through Asia with the Cable holding tightly around the 1.3000 level through into the grey hours, a slight dip through the 1.2990 areas with the early London traders buying off those lows for a weak rally through to the 1.3015 area, dropping back in early London to extend the lows testing the 1.2975 areas bouncing as CPI numbers hit a little stronger and running to extend the high for the day above the 1.3020 level before swiftly returning to the low, the move through to the NYK session saw the market holding the 1.2975-1.3000 areas NYK are strong sellers from just after the opening and the market steadily pushed through to take out the 1.2950 level after a brief pause to push eventually through to the 1.2910 level before finding support sufficient to turn the market however, the rally was limited and held through into the 1.2925 area for the close.
• JPY: USDJPY saw a steady rise through the day, pushing initially through the 110.00 level into the midsession in Tokyo and holding just above the level for the move into London where buying restarted trading in one direction only to push through the 110.50 level for the move into the NYK session where the baton was picked up and the move through the 111.00 level with only a slight quicker pace on the break to the 111.30 level and pausing for the end of London before continuing through to the final hour testing above the 111.50 level peaking around the 111.60 area and then a dip back to the 111.25 level leaving the final 30 mins or so for the market to regain the 111.30’s.
• AUD: Holding for the most of the day in a fairly narrow range the market opened around the 0.6685 areas, the move through to the Tokyo session saw a slight rise through to the 0.6695 areas saw the opening in Tokyo drifting back through the opening levels to hold the opening levels, the market rallied a little further into the midsession testing through the 67 cents level and then trading narrowly around the 0.6695 areas for the move into the grey hours, London made the highs for the day pushing just above the 0.6705 areas before drifting through into the Tokyo falling back to the opening levels, the move to the close in London saw the market testing through the 0.6680 area saw the market test steadily into the 0.6665 area before holding on a long run to the close around the 0.6670 levels.
• EUR: A reasonably choppy session for the day with limited movement to some extent, opening around the 1.0790 area the market saw steady buying pushing the market through the 1.0800 level into the Tokyo morning session before drifting back for the move into the grey hours testing lightly through the opening levels, a quiet rise through to the early morning in London saw the market again testing through the 1.0805 area before dropping quickly on the move into early Tokyo testing through to the 1.0785 area bouncing on the failure the market hit the NYK opening with the market again testing towards the 1.0780 level and another failure to slowly rise through the balance of the session testing through to finish the day just off the 1.0811 area highs.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD Westpac Leading Index MoM (JAN) A 0.05% | P 0.1%
JPY Machine Orders YoY (DEC) A -3.5% | C -1.3% | P 5.3%
JPY Trade Balance (JAN) A -1312.6b | C -1684.8b | P -152.5b
AUD Wage Price Index YoY (4Q) A 2.2% | C 2.2% | P 2.2%
GBP CPI YoY (JAN) A 1.8% | C 1.6% | P 1.3%
GBP Core CPI YoY (JAN) A 1.6% | C 1.5% | P 1.4%
GBP CPIH YoY (JAN) A 1.8% | C 1.7% | P 1.4%
GBP CPI MoM (JAN) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | P 0.0%
GBP House Price Index YoY (DEC) A 2.2% | C 2.4% | P 2.2% | R 1.7%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 14) A -6.4% | P 1.1%
CAD CPI YoY (JAN) A 2.4% | C 2.3% | P 2.2%
CAD CPI n.s.a. MoM (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.0%
USD Building Permits MoM (JAN) A 9.2% | C 2.1% | P -3.9% | R -3.7%
USD Housing Starts MoM (JAN) A -3.6% | C -12.0% | P 16.9% | R 17.7%
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (JAN 29)

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