Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.563 | EURUSD 1.1036 | AUDUSD 0.61374 | NZDUSD 0.59396 | USDCAD 1.40648 | USDCHF 0.96107 | GBPUSD 1.24166 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.10399 | 1.10059
USDJPY 107.930 | 107.251
GBPUSD 1.24470 | 1.23635
USDCHF 0.96240 | 0.96095
AUDUSD 0.61601 | 0.61127
NZDUSD 0.59728 | 0.59258
USDCAD 1.41175 | 1.40662
EURCHF 1.06057 | 1.0593
EURGBP 0.89078 | 0.88571
EURJPY 118.861 | 118.324
For Today
- GBP: Dipping from the opening around the 1.2430 area testing through to the 1.2400 into the Tokyo opening before recovering a little but unable to regain the opening the market moved into mid-Tokyo testing steadily through to the 1.2365 areas and ranging through to the grey hour in the 1.2385 area, Weak offers through the topside through to the 1.2500 level where congestion increases and likely to continue through the 1.2550 area even though there could be some light stops the congestion is likely to continue through to 1.2600 level before opening the topside and the market free to move higher over the coming days, downside bids light through to the 1.2300 level with limited sentimental bids until that level and strong congestion likely to appear before weakness reappears through to the 1.2100 level.
- JPY: Rising into the Tokyo opening the market initially tested to the 107.75 level before the opening saw strong sellers chasing the market through to the 107.25 level and a steady grind from the lows to push steadily through into midsession testing the 107.95 area before falling back and holding around the 107.80 level through to the grey hour, Downside bids likely into and 107.00 level however, a break here opens the chance of further downside losses with the likelihood of very little until the 105.00 area. Topside offers light through the 108.00 level and likely to see increasing resistance only as the market pushes for the 109.00 level.
- AUD: Dropping from early highs just above the 0.6150 level with RBA commentary sending the market through to the Tokyo opening testing the 0.6110 level, Tokyo were slow buyers in early trading and the market moved into midsession before starting a slow range around the 0.6125 areas through to the grey hour looking a little stronger, topside see’s limited congestion around the 0.6200 level and likely to continue in the same vein through to the 63 cents level where stronger offers possibly lie, downside bids light through to the 59 cents level with some congestion there before opening for another test to the 58 cent area and weak bids through to the 55 cents level.
- EUR: A very quiet session through to Midmorning in Tokyo before breaking out of a tight 20 pip range deep into the Tokyo session to test the 1.1005 area pausing for an hour or so on the lows before lowly push through to range around the 1.1025 level to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 1.0850-00 area where the possibility of strong congestion however a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1100 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1180-1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1220 level to open weakness through to the 1.1260 area.
Overnight News
USD/EM:
FED’s Repo rate may be expensive last resort for EM Central Banks – BBG
USD:
Covid-19 is going to do to businesses as it did to people – WPT
FED takes on role of world’s central bank by pumping out USD – BBG
OIL:
Saudis start to unleash oil wave despite US Pressure – BBG
NZD:
NZ almost doubles Bond program, eyes big April auctions – BBG
NZ to offer NZD 4b bonds in April auctions.
CNY:
Chinese cinemas told to close just a week after reopening – SMP
AUD:
RBA: Cash rate to remain at very low level for years
RBA: Bond purchases to increase RBA’s Balance sheet
RBA: Australia banks had strong funding no need to tap markets
NOK:
World’s biggest wealth fund dragged closer to dumping assets – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR) A 53.7 | P 44.3
JPY Loans and Discounts Corp YoY (FEB) A 2.36% | P 2.2%
JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex A 1.8% | C 2.5% | P 6.8%
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook A -11 | C -15 | P 0
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (1Q) A -8 | C -10 | P 0
JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (1Q) A 8 | C 3 | P 20
JPY Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook (1Q) A -19 | C -15 | P 1
AUD RBA Minutes of March 18 Policy Meeting (MAR)
CNY Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (MAR) A 50.1 | C 45.0 | P 40.3
0600 EUR German Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A | C 1.5% | P 1.8%
0730 CHF PMI Manufacturing (MAR) A | C 42.0 | 49.5
0900 EUR Eurozone Unemployment rate (FEB) A | C 7.4% | P 7.4%
1100 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 27) A | P -29.4%
1215 USD ADP Employment Change A | C -150k | P 183k
1330 CAD RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | P 51.8
1400 USD ISM Employment (MAR) A | P 46.9
1400 USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR) A | C 45.0 | P 50.1
1400 USD Construction spending MoM (FEB) A | C 0.5% | P 1.8%
1400 USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR) A | C 41.8 | 45.9
1430 USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 27) A | P 1623ki
1530 MXN Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (MAR) A | P 50
2350 JPY Monetary Base YoY (MAR) A | P 3.6%
2350 JPY Monetary Base End of Period (MAR) A | P 515.9t
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2415 level the market holds a little through to the Tokyo session holding the 1.2400 areas and then dipping on the opening to test through to the 1.2350 area bouncing a little before running for a second time and testing quickly through to the 1.2250 level bouncing with more conviction back to the 1.2325 area and then holding a slightly rising range through to the grey hour around the 1.2340-50 area, London sold through to test just below the 1.2300 level before starting a stronger and steadier rally through into the NYK session and then testing towards the 1.2475 level for the London close and dipping back to the 1.2365 areas before ranging above the 1.2400 to the close.
- JPY: Moving off the 107.90 area the market holds below the 108.00 level before heading into Tokyo and pushing quickly through to the 108.15 areas dipping a little in the first hour before running quickly higher again on strong USD to test the 108.75 areas before dipping back to the 108.50 and then a slow drift through to the grey hour and a weak start for London, before pushing just above the 108.50 level for the second time, the move through into the NYK session saw a slow grind higher again but this time the market struggled into the 108.70 level before starting a strong drop back triggering weak stops through the 108.00 level and quickly hitting the 107.50 level to find a base for the run to the close.
- AUD: A steady opening and push through to the Tokyo session before dipping a little to the 0.6150 level before pushing off the early lows for a run towards the 0.6200 level, the high was short lived and dropped quickly as the USD rallied dipping quickly through to the 0.6075 level bouncing quickly back to 0.6150 and then starting a slow grind through to the 62 cents level to peak just short of the 0.6215 the day’s highs the market started steady selling appearing through to test towards the lows again into midmorning in London before finding a base, NYK saw a limited recover with the market then dropping back from the 0.6150 level to the lows for the third time and struggling to recover the 0.6150 area. Into the close.
- EUR: Opening on its highs around the 1.1050 level and dipped a little on the move into the Tokyo session to hold around the 1.1025 areas the market struggled to recover before USD buying quickly demolished the Euro and the market pushed quickly into the 1.0980’s before bouncing however, while the market struggled around the 1.1030 level and the move through into the London session saw the Euro slowly sliding lower to touch just above the 1.0925 areas for the move into NYK and started a stuttering recovery through to the London close and the market back above the 1.1000 level and while the market continued to struggle much of the loses were recovered for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD NZ Government 8Month Financial Statements
NZD Building Permits MoM (FEB) A 4.7% | P -2.0%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence A -9 | C -15 | P -7
JPY Jobless Rate (FEB) A 2.4% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%
JPY Industrial Production YoY (FEB P) A -4.7% | C -4.9% | -2.3%
JPY Large Retailers Sales (FEB) A 0.2% | C -1.6% | P -1.4%
JPY Retail Trade YoY (FEB) A 1.7% | C -1.5% | P -0.4%
GBP Nationwide House Px n.s.a. YoY (MAR) A | C 2.1% | P 2.3%
NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (MAR) A -26.7 | C 7.3 | P 12
AUD Private Sector Credit YoY (FEB) A 2.6% | C 2.6% | P 2.5%
CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 52 | C 45.0 | P 35.7
CNY Composite PMI (MAR) A 53.0 | P 28.9
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 52.3 | C 42.0 | P 29.6
JPY Construction Orders YoY (FEB) A 0.7% | P -17.0%
JPY Housing Starts YoY (FEB) A 12.3% | C -14.7% | P -10.1%
GBP Current Account Balance (4Q) -5.6b | C -7.0b | P -19.9b
GBP Government Spending (4Q F) A 1.5% | C 2.1% | P 2.1%
GBP GDP YoY (4Q F) A 1.1% | C 1.1% | P 1.1%
CHF Retail Sales Real YoY (FEB) A 0.3% | P -0.1%
EUR German Unemployment Change (MAR) A 1k | C 25.0k | P -10.0k | R -8k
EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (MAR) A 5.0% | C 5.1% | P 5.0%
EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (MAR P) A 1.0% | C 1.1% | P 1.2%
EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY (MAR) A 0.7% | C 0.8% | P 1.2%
EUR Eurozone CPI MoM (MAR P) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.2%
CAD GDP YoY (JAN) A 1.8% | P 1.9%
CAD GDP MoM (JAN) A 0.1% | P 0.3%
USD S&P CoreLogiuc CS20-City MoM s.a. (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.43%
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 YoY (JAN) A 3.1% | C 3.29% | P 2.85%
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (MAR) A 47.8 | C 40.0 | P 49.0
USD Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) A 120.0 | C 112.0 | P 130.7 | R 132.6
USD Conf. Board Present situation (MAR) A 167.7 | P 165.1
Best Regards
Andy
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