Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.164 | EURUSD 1.09644 | AUDUSD 0.60739 | NZDUSD 0.59159 | USDCAD 1.41955 | USDCHF 0.96581 | GBPUSD 1.23685 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09676 | 1.09315
USDJPY 107.574 | 107.038
GBPUSD 1.24141 | 1.23744
USDCHF 0.96811 | 0.96504
AUDUSD 0.60930 | 0.60634
NZDUSD 0.59359 | 0.59164
USDCAD 1.41922 | 1.41496
EURCHF 1.05872 | 1.05799
EURGBP 0.88672 | 0.88237
EURJPY 117.712 | 117.29
For Today
- GBP: A reasonably quiet range through Asia with the market opening around the 1.2390 level and remaining the centre of focus throughout the session with minor tests in either direction testing the 1.2410 level a light pushes through to the 1.2375 level. Weak offers through the topside through to the 1.2500 level where congestion increases and likely to continue through the 1.2550 area even though there could be some light stops the congestion is likely to continue through to 1.2600 level before opening the topside and the market free to move higher over the coming days, downside bids light through to the 1.2300 level with limited sentimental bids until that level and strong congestion likely to appear before weakness reappears through to the 1.2100 level.
- JPY: A slow rise through the Asian session moving off the opening lows around the 107.05 area and pushing through to mid-session in Tokyo testing towards the 107.80 before holding and ranging around the 107.50 level through into the grey hour. Downside bids likely into and 107.00 level however, a break here opens the chance of further downside losses with the likelihood of very little until the 105.00 area. Topside offers light through the 108.00 level and likely to see increasing resistance only as the market pushes for the 109.00 level.
- AUD: Gapping a little after early data showed weaker expectations for the immediate future, and to be honest its not a real surprise and the Oz opened around the 0.6065 level only to rise into the Tokyo opening testing the 0.6090 area, Tokyo open and really no change and the move through into midsession in Asia saw the market marking time around the 0.60090 level eventually slipping back to the opening level for a brief period but moving to the grey hour testing back to the highs, topside see’s limited congestion around the 0.6200 level and likely to continue in the same vein through to the 63 cents level where stronger offers possibly lie, downside bids light through to the 59 cents level with some congestion there before opening for another test to the 58 cent area and weak bids through to the 55 cents level.
- EUR: Opening just off the highs of the session the Euro slow slipped lower initially ranging around the 1.0950 level before pushing through the midsession and testing through to the 1.0930 level to make the lows and struggling into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 1.0850-00 area where the possibility of strong congestion however a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1100 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1180-1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1220 level to open weakness through to the 1.1260 area.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japan stock see bad omen in rising shorts – BBG
Japanese sold net 1.7b Yen overseas debt last week – BBG
CNY:
Markets get reality check with China’s cautious stimulus steps – BBG
NZD:
RBNZ urged to come out all guns blazing on QE to lower rates – BBG
RBNZ: Banks agree no dividends on ordinary shares at this time
RBNZ’s Orr: NZ financial system remains sound
RBNZ: Will launch first TLF operation in May
USD:
Fed’s new Repo measure followed a $100b treasury exodus – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY Monetary Base YoY (MAR) A 2.8% | P 3.6%
JPY Monetary Base End of Period (MAR) A 509.8t | P 515.9t
AUD NAB Business Confidence (1Q) A -11 | P -2
0630 CHF CPI Core YoY (MAR) A | C 0.0% | P 0.2%
0630 CHF CPI EU Harmonized YoY (MAR) A | C -0.5% | P -0.2%
0630 CHF CPI YoY (MAR) A | C -0.5% | P -0.1%
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 28) A | C 3700k | P 3283k
1230 USD Continuing Claims (MAR 21) A | P 1803k
1230 USD Trade Balance (FEB) A | C -40.0b | P -45.3b
1400 USD Durable Goods Orders (FEB F) A | C 1.2% | P 1.2%
1400 USD Factory Orders (FEB) A | C 0.2% | P -0.5%
2130 AUD AIG Performance of Construction Index (MAR) A | P 42.7
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Dipping from the opening just above the 1.2445 level and testing into the Tokyo session holding the 1.2400 level and slowly rising to the 1.2425 areas before the sellers appeared again pushing through to the 1.2360 area before finding a base for the market range around the 1.2380 level into the grey hour, and then dropping back as early London sellers sold through to the 1.2335 level to make the low for the day into the opening. A slow rise through towards the NYK session again moving towards the 1.2400 level with a quick dip as NYK opened then a steady push through to the 1.2440 level as the market attempted to extend the high for the day and failed dropping back quicker than it rose and ranged in the 1.2350-1.2400 levels through to the close barely holding the low end of the range.
- JPY: A quiet run to the Tokyo session then quick buying for the opening saw the USDJPY pushing towards the 107.80 level before dipping just as quickly from the opening through to the 107.40 level and then a steady push through to base for the first time to the 107.25 level, a strong steady push through to make the high of the day and testing through the 107.90 level but really no threat to the 108.00 with the market turning quickly from the high for a pause in the 107.80-70 level for the move into the grey hours, another dip on the move through into early London before the official opening and again basing on that 107.25 area London opening onwards was limited to the 107.60-50 area for the most part and only once NYK moved in did sellers reappear and the low extended with the market testing the 107.00 level for the London close recovering a little then dipping in the final hour to extend the lows to the 106.90 area before closing back above the 107.00 area.
- AUD: Quiet through the Asian session with the market making early highs in the first hour to the 0.6155 area before dipping back to the 0.6115 level for the move into the Tokyo open, ranging around the 0.6130 level through the Asian session the market finally broke out of the quiet range into the London opening to test through to the 0.6090 area and then ranged through into New York before rising quickly on what looks like option expiry’s in NYK and a quick illiquid move through from the 0.6050 lows to test 0.6180 before returning to the 0.6100 area and a slow drift through to the close testing back into the 0.6080 level.
- EUR: A quiet Asian session with early Tokyo selling taking the market from the opening highs around the 1.1035-40 area through to the 1.1005 level into midmorning in Tokyo a small recovery however, the market ranged quietly through to the grey hour before dipping slowly away through the morning in London to test through the 1.0950 level slowing but slipping lowly through until late in the session to finally push towards the 1.0900 level before bouncing off the level and finishing the day around the 1.0950 area
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR) A 53.7 | P 44.3
JPY Loans and Discounts Corp YoY (FEB) A 2.36% | P 2.2%
JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex A 1.8% | C 2.5% | P 6.8%
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook A -11 | C -15 | P 0
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (1Q) A -8 | C -10 | P 0
JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (1Q) A 8 | C 3 | P 20
JPY Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook (1Q) A -19 | C -15 | P 1
AUD RBA Minutes of March 18 Policy Meeting (MAR)
CNY Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (MAR) A 50.1 | C 45.0 | P 40.3
EUR German Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A 6.4% | C 1.5% | P 1.8%
CHF PMI Manufacturing (MAR) A 43.7 | C 42.0 | 49.5
EUR Eurozone Unemployment rate (FEB) A 7.3% | C 7.4% | P 7.4%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 27) A 15.3% | P -29.4%
USD ADP Employment Change A -27k | C -150k | P 183k
CAD RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 46.1 | P 51.8
USD ISM Employment (MAR) A 43.8 | P 46.9
USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR) A 49.1 | C 45.0 | P 50.1
USD Construction spending MoM (FEB) A 1.3% | C 0.5% | P 1.8% | R 2.8%
USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR) A 37.4 | C 41.8 | 45.9
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 27) A 13833k | P 1623ki
MXN Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (MAR) A 47.9 | P 50
Best Regards
Andy
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