Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.543 | EURUSD 1.09792 | AUDUSD 0.65979 | NZDUSD 0.61487 | USDCAD 1.38994 | USDCHF 0.96482 | GBPUSD 1.22377 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09841 | 1.09577
USDJPY 107.754 | 107.502
GBPUSD 1.22438 | 1.21933
USDCHF 0.96661 | 0.96453
AUDUSD 0.65999 | 0.65491
NZDUSD 0.61535 | 0.61178
USDCAD 1.39402 | 1.39015
EURCHF 1.05952 | 1.0592
EURGBP 0.89870 | 0.89701
EURJPY 118.207 | 117.942
For Today
- GBP: Holding its value through the early part of the session the move towards Tokyo session not challenging the early attempt towards the 1.2250 level however, once Tokyo moved in the market drifted a little then dropped quickly through to the 1.2220 level before renewing the slower drift testing through to the 1.2200 area making a low just below the 1.2195 area and ranging around the 1.2200 level. Topside offers a little weaker with the bulk of congestion around the 1.2300 level and while there may be some weak stops congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.2350 level in some form with stronger offers then creeping in just above and increasing on any push to the 1.2400 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2150 level with support beginning to build after the recent move higher, weakness through the 1.2150 level and then increasing on any move to the 1.2100 area. With possible strong stops just below.
- JPY: Slow rise from the opening lows pushing from the 107.50 areas through to the 107.70 level into the Tokyo opening, a slight dip before starting a rise through to the high for the session just through the 107.75 level, having made the highs the market drifted from the high to hold around the 107.60 area through to the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
- AUD: Opening on its highs and like some of the other pairs losing ground to the USD, drifting slowly into the Tokyo session the market dropped at an increasing rate rom the 66 cent level testing through to the 0.6550 level before finding sufficient buyers to turn the market and hold around the 0.6560 level through into the grey hour, downside bids likely to appear on any test of the 64 cents level and through to the 0.6380 level where limited weak stops are likely to appear and quickly be absorbed by the congestive bids around the 0.6350 area and through to stronger bids into 63 cents. Topside offers through the 0.6600 level again and likely extending to the 0.6620 and possibly weak stops appearing to open a move through to the 0.6640-60 sentimental area with increasing offers on a push through to the 0.6680 levels.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.0980 area and flatlining through into the Tokyo morning before dropping off from the level steadily drifting through to the 1.0960 area in a limited market and running through to the grey hour holding that area. Topside offers increasing on any attempt to push the 1.0980 level through to 1.1020 area and possible option related stops appearing to see a quick move through to the 1.1050 area. Downside bids likely to be light through the 1.0900 level with weak stops quickly appearing and opening the market to a quick test of the 1.0850 level and limited congestion until closer to the 1.0800-1.0780 level and further stops.
Overnight News
AUD/CNY:
China may boost Non-Australia Iron ore imports amid tensions – BI
China changes Iron ore inspection rules in new trade threat – AFR
EUR:
Lufthansa confirms in advanced talks for up to EU9b in state aid – BBG
NZD:
RBNZ Increases pressure on banks to lower mortgage lending rates – BBG
USD/CNY:
White House report blasts Chinese malign activities – US News
Senate passes bill to delist Chinese companies from exchanges – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD Manufacturing PMI A 42.8 | P 44.1
AUD Services PMI A 25.5 | P 19.5
JPY Exports YoY (APR) A -21.9% | C -22.7% | P -11.7%
JPY Trade Balance (APR) A -930.4b | C -560.0b | P 5.4b
JPY Services PMI (MAY) A 25.3 | P 21.5
JPY Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 38.4 | P 41.9
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe speaks
0715 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 36.1 | P 31.5
0715 EUR French Services PMI (MAY) A | C 27.8 | P 10.2
0730 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 39.2 | P 34.5
0730 EUR German Services PMI (MAY) A | 26.6 | P 16.2
0800 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 38 | P 33.4
0800 EUR Eurozone Services PMI (MAY) A | C 25 | P 12
0830 GBP Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | P 32.6
0830 GBP Services PMI (MAY) A | P 13.4
1000 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (MAY) A | C -59 | P -56
1230 USD Continuing jobless claims A | C 24,765k | P 22,833k
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 2400k | P 2981k
1345 USD Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 38.0 | P 36.1
1345 USD Service PMI (MAY) A | C 30 | P 36.7
1400 USD Existing Home sales MoM (APR) A | C -18.9% | P -8.5%
1400 USD Existing Home sales (APR) A | C 4.30m | P 5.27m
1400 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
1400 USD US Leading Index MoM (APR) A | C -5.5% | P -6.7%
1700 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
1830 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
1830 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
2245 USD Retail Sales QoQ Q1 A | P 0.7%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A reasonable range through the day but generally contained around the 1.2250 level for the bulk of the day, rising from the opening just below 1.2250 and steadily rising through to the 1.2275 area before drifting and holding into the London session around the 1.2260 area, London were quick sellers and the market dropped initially to the opening area around the 1.2240 area and then slowly pushed through to the 1.2225 level to form a base for the day, rising through midmorning to recapture the 1.2260 areas and ranging just above the 1.2250 into the NYK session the market rushed to its highs to test the 1.2290 area again before heading to the London close and a quick drop once London left the building testing quickly to the base and running quietly through to the close around the 1.2230 area.
- JPY: Early JPY selling and the USDJPY forced through into early morning in Tokyo testing the 108.00 area only to reject the level and drop quickly back to the opening levels around the 107.70 area and a slow range through to the London opening, another round of selling saw the market pushing to the 107.60 level and then held through to the NYK session before the market fell through to the 107.40 level finally making the low of the day just before the London close testing the 107.35 area and recovering after the close to push back to the mid 107.50’s for a quiet range to the close of the day.
- AUD: A quiet move through the early part of the session dipping to the lows around the 0.6525 level before rallying through into Tokyo pushing through to the 0.6860 level before drifting through into the London session, London were light sellers testing through towards the lows again however, midmorning started to see stronger buying moving through and pushing in a tight channel deep into the NYK session to test the 0.6615 level before dropping back from the high quickly to the 0.6585 area to struggle to the close to recapture the highs.
- EUR: A slow steady rise through the early part of Tokyo took the market away from the opening lows around the 1.0920 level to test through the 1.0940 level and then ranging tightly through to the grey hour, limited rise on the opening in London, this saw the market testing the 1.0960 level and range around the 1.0950 level through to NYK before the USD sellers moved in and the Euro pushed steadily through towards the 1.1000 level before running out of steam and dropping back quickly on the move to the London close testing the 1.0970 level and then ranging around the 1.0980 area to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Core Machinery Orders YoY (MAR) A -0.7% | C -9.5% | P -2.4%
JPY Core Machinery Orders MoM (MAR) A -0.4% | C -7.1% | P 2.3%
AUD Westpac Leading Index MoM A -1.5% | P -0.7%
CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%
GBP Core CPI YoY (APR) A 1.4% | C 1.5% | P 1.6%
GBP Core CPI MoM (APR) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
GBP Core RPI MoM (APR) A 0.0% | P 0.2%
GBP Core RPI YoY (APR) A 1.6% | P 2.7%
GBP CPI YoY (APR) A 0.8% | C 0.9% | P 1.5%
GBP CPI MoM (APR) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P 0.0%
GBP PPI Input MoM A -5.1% | C -4.0% | P -3.6% | R -3.8%
EUR Eurozone Current Account (MAR) A 27.4b | P 40.2b
EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (APR) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.7%
EUR Eurozone CPI MoM (APR) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%
CAD Core CPI MoM (APR) A -0.4% | P 0.7%
CAD Wholesale sales MoM (MAR) A -2.2% | C -3.8% | P 0.7%
GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -4.983m | C 1.151m | P -0.745m
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Best Regards
Andy
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