Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.51 | EURUSD 1.12449 | AUDUSD 0.69454 | NZDUSD 0.65274 | USDCAD 1.35492 | USDCHF 0.9442 | GBPUSD 1.24825 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12852 | 1.1242
USDJPY 107.771 | 107.425
GBPUSD 1.24948 | 1.24666
USDCHF 0.94583 | 0.94318
AUDUSD 0.69677 | 0.69275
NZDUSD 0.65544 | 0.65234
USDCAD 1.35691 | 1.35367
EURCHF 1.06415 | 1.06228
EURGBP 0.90344 | 0.90068
EURJPY 121.541 | 120.853
For Today
- GBP: No real trading premarket seemed to show the markets opening in line with Fridays close however truth was a weaker open for the Cable and the market then holding around the 1.2475 level through into the Tokyo session with a slight test through the 1.2470 area before moving into the Tokyo session to test towards the 1.2490 level before holding in the 1.2480-90 area to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2500 level with limited stops until the market breaks through the 1.2550 area and likely stronger offers and congestion possible then through to the stronger 1.2600 levels from last month with possible openings through that level, downside bids light through to the 1.2400 level with possible weak stops through the level opening the downside through to the 1.2300 level before stiffer support starts to appear through to the 1.2200.
- JPY: Almost unchanged for the opening and as soon as early Tokyo appeared the market started to trade higher, opening around the 107.50 level and moving into the Tokyo session pushing through the 107.55 area and continuing through in a tight channelled move to the 107.75 area before finding sufficient offers and slipping back to range around the 107.70 for the move into the grey hour. topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside weak through the 107.00 level before opening for a fresh run at the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Dipping from the unchanged opening to set the low around the 0.6930 area before early Tokyo saw the market recovering with the USDJPY move to push through the 0.6960 level to hold in the area for several hours, the move to the grey hour saw the market testing towards the 0.6970 area, Topside offers through the current level with increasing through the 0.7000 area and while there could be weak stops through the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too.
- EUR: Opening unchanged around the 1.1245 area and then a quick move to the 1.1260 level into the Tokyo session and a steady rise from there on a push into the mid 1.1280 area for the move into the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside congestion into the 1.1280-1.1300 area building the longer it remains below with further offers through the 1.1350 level with increasing offers likely through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.
Overnight News
EUR:
Spain imposes second local coronavirus lockdown in two days – RTR’s
ECB’s Villeroy says Pandemic forces permanent policy changes – BBG
USD:
Some Hospitals in Southern, Western US states near capacity amid Virus outbreaks – DJ
Fed sees high loan losses at European Banks in stress test – FT
GBP:
BoE Governor warns over negative interest rates – Sunday Times
UK’s Sunak plans to raise property tax threshold, cut VAT for hospitality sector – The Times
Britain’s finance ministry pledges funding to triple number of UK traineeships
WHO:
Reports record daily increase in global coronavirus cases, up more than 212,000 – RTR’s
AUD:
Australian job advertisements jump record 42% in June – ANZ
Iron Ore’s at risk as the negatives stack up one by one – BBG
CNY:
Time for China to decouple the Yuan from USD, former diplomat urges – SMP
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
0600 EUR German Factory Orders A | C 15.0% | P -25.8%
0730 EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI (JUN) A | P 40.1
0830 GBP Construction PMI (JUN) A | C 47.0 | P 28.9
0900 EUR Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A | C 15.0% | P -11.7%
1345 USD Markit Composite PMI (JUN) A | C 46.8 | P 37.0
1345 USD Services PMI (JUN) A | C 46.7 | P 37.5
1400 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (JUN) A | P 31.8
1400 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A | C 50.0 | P 45.4
1430 CAD BoC Business Outlook survey
2200 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q2) A | P -70%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session and a little choppy through the balance of the session with parts of the US taking early runs for the Independence day celebrations, ranging through the Asia trading in the 1.2460-70 level for the most part before steadily trading through into the London session testing towards the 1.2490 area before dropping quickly back through the 1.2440 area to base there through to the NYK session before again pushing above the 1.2470 level and testing through to the close pushing through 1.2480 and spiking on a weak attempt at 1.2500 level.
- JPY: Very quiet session for the USDJPY throughout the day with early Lows made in the first hour of Tokyo testing through the 107.45 before then rising through to the 107.55 area for the high of the day and from there holding quietly around the 107.50 in a very limited range.
- AUD: A slow rise through the day but very limited in movement opening around the 0.6920 level and drifting through to the Tokyo session testing the 0.6915 area in early trading before rallying through to the 0.6930 area in a similar pattern as the USDJPY low and high in that period, the market held around the 0.6930 area through into the grey hour and a slow push for the London openi9ng to test the 0.6940 area and continue to range through to the end of the day before testing a little higher for the close but unable to break 0.6950 and dipping only slightly for the close.
- EUR: Limited action through the day with the Asian session moving off the 1.1240 level and testing through to the 1.1250 area before moving through to late in the Asian session falling back to test the 1.1240 area before bouncing a little but falling back quickly from the London opening testing into the mid 1.1220’s before drifting through to test the 1.1220 level for the low of the day before starting a slow rise through to the close holding around the 1.1240 level for a long period before moving a little into the close to set the high of the day.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Service PMI (JUN) A 45.0 | C 42.3 | P 26.5
AUD Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A 18.9% | C 16.3% | P -17.7%
CNY Caixin Services PMI (JUN) A 58.4 | P 55.0
CNY Composite PMI (JUN) A 55.7 | P 53.4
EUR Spanish Services PMI (JUN) A 50.2 | C 45.9 | P 27.9
EUR German Services PMI (JUN) A 47.3 | C 45.8 | P 32.6
EUR Markit Composite PMI (JUN) A 48.5 | C 47.5 | P 31.9
EUR Services PMI (JUN) A 48.3 | C 47.3 | P 30.5
GBP Composite PMI (JUN) A 47.7 | C 47.6 | P 30.0
GBP Services PMI (JUN) A 47.1 | C 47.0 | P 29.0
Best Regards
Andy
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