Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.389 | EURUSD 1.13086 | AUDUSD 0.69933 | NZDUSD 0.65641 | USDCAD 1.35403 | USDCHF 0.94222 | GBPUSD 1.24924 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.13322 | 1.13039
USDJPY 107.439 | 107.246
GBPUSD 1.25179 | 1.24864
USDCHF 0.94276 | 0.94105
AUDUSD 0.69974 | 0.69566
NZDUSD 0.65800 | 0.65501
USDCAD 1.35555 | 1.35257
EURCHF 1.06645 | 1.06502
EURGBP 0.90548 | 0.90467
EURJPY 121.576 | 121.356
For Today
- GBP: A quiet move through into the Tokyo session before steady buying took the market to just short of the 1.2520 level to slowly drift back to the opening around the 1.2490 level, range defined the market returned to just above the 1.2500 level and a quiet move into the grey hour, topside offers lightly congested through to the 1.2550 area with strong offers likely into the area and continuing through to the 1.2560 area before opening a little for an approach to the 1.2600 with sentimental offers only through the level and exposing the market to a stronger rally towards the 1.2700 level with stronger congestion into the figure level and limited stops and increasing congestion through the area. downside bids light through to the 1.2400 level with possible weak stops through the level opening the downside through to the 1.2300 level before stiffer support starts to appear through to the 1.2200.
- JPY: Opening just below the 107.40 level the market moved quietly through into the Tokyo session with a double dip to the 107.25 area for the low of the session before slowly pushing back to make the highs just above the 107.40 area. topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside weak through the 107.00 level before opening for a fresh run at the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Quiet move into the Tokyo session holding around the opening 0.6975 area to quickly test to the high 0.6990’s before just as quickly dip back to the opening level and then eventually pushing through the 0.6970 level wo quickly test below the 0.6960 level before quietly holding just above the lows for the RBA announcement which as expected came out unchanged and slowly rose a little, Topside offers through the current level with increasing through the 0.7000 area and while there could be weak stops through the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1305 level and holding through into the Tokyo session before pushing steadily through to the 1.1330 area and then drifting steadily back for the move into the grey hour holding the opening level to the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside congestion into the 1.1350 level with increasing offers likely through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.
Overnight News
AUD:
Australia’s Victoria state Premier considering 4 weeks state-wide lockdown – TAN
RBA: Won’t raise rate until progress made to full employment
RBA: Won’t raise rate until confident CPI sustainably in target
RBA: Nature, Speed of economic recovery highly uncertain
RBA: Uncertainty about health, economy making people cautious
RBA: Fiscal, monetary support likely needed for some time
USD:
Pompeo: US certainly looking at a ban on TikTok – BBG
New Rules: Foreign Pupils must leave US if classes go online – PTI
Fed’s Bostic says US recovery may be levelling off – FT
Bostic: He is troubled by data on business openings – FT
EUR:
Antibody study in Spain says Coronavirus herd immunity far off – DPA
CAD:
Down to handful of active rigs, Canada’s oil and gas drillers face permanent contraction
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q2) A -63% | P -70%
JPY Household Spending MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | C 1.8% | P -6.2%
JPY Household Spending YoY (MAY) A -16.2% | C -12.2% | P -11.1%
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (JUL) A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
0600 EUR German Industrial Production MoM (MAY) A | C 10.0% | P -17.9%
0730 GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (JUN) A | C -0.9% | P -0.2%
0730 GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY (JUN) A | P 2.6%
0830 GBP Labour Productivity (Q1) A | P -.3%
1300 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1400 USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAY) A | C 4.850m | P 5.046m
1700 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
1800 USD FOMC Member Daily Speaks
2030 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -8.156m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2470 level and the lows for the day the move into the Tokyo session saw the market testing the 1.2490 level and then ranging through the session until just before the grey hour where the market pushed gradually through the level to push lightly through the 1.2500 level and pushing through to the 1.2510 area before early London sold the market down to the 1.2480 area and the base for the market through the day, once early London had run the market lower is again started a steady climb through to the NYK session pushing through to the 1.2520 area repeatedly and then holding to the ISM numbers and a round of limited USD buying coming through to take the market back to the base line again bouncing and returning to the level again and then ranging around the 1.2490 area to the close.
- JPY: Opening unchanged and pushing after the first hour into a channelled rise through to the 107.75 area for the high of the day before drifting back to the 107.70 level to range quietly into the grey hour, light selling through to the London opening saw the market pushing through the 107.60 level and continuing to the 107.50 opening areas for the move into the NYK session, some two way play through the US data saw the market again settle into a steady drift testing through to the 107.25 area before recovering a little for the close.
- AUD: Dipping on the opening to make the low of the day just below the 0.6930 level before bouncing back as Tokyo appeared and saw the market unchanged on the Tokyo opening and slowly pushing from the 0.6945 level through to 0.6960 for a long run ranging around the 0.6960, a light push for the grey hour saw the market just above the level and testing to the 0.6970, grey hour buying was reasonably quiet with a limited push above the 0.6980 level for the first time. London were slow sellers however, the market stayed in the positive through to late morning in London before running back to test the highs again to push just above the 0.6985’s a couple of times and then quietly running to the close around the mid 0.6970’s
- EUR: A quiet opening saw the Euro run through to the Tokyo session holding 1.1245 before slowly rising through to the grey hours pushing through the 1.1285 area, the move through into the Lonodn session initially saw the market unable to push through the 1.1300 area with any conviction and only as the market saw fresh buying moving in from the NYK market did the market break triggering some weak stops through to the 1.1315 area before a steady rise moved through to test into the 1.1345 area, the market tailed to push any further and dropped quickly back to the 1.1310 level and held above the 1.1305 area through to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
EUR German Factory Orders A 10.4% | C 15.0% | P -25.8% | R -26.2%
EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI (JUN) A 41.3 | P 40.1
GBP Construction PMI (JUN) A 55.3 | C 47.0 | P 28.9
EUR Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A 17.8% | C 15.0% | P -11.7% | R -12.1%
USD Markit Composite PMI (JUN) A 47.9 | C 46.8 | P 37.0
USD Services PMI (JUN) A 47.9 | C 46.7 | P 37.5
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (JUN) A 43.1 | P 31.8
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 57.1 | C 50.0 | P 45.4
CAD BoC Business Outlook survey
Best Regards
Andy
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