Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107. 253 | EURUSD 1.1330 | AUDUSD 0.6981 | NZDUSD 0.65762 | USDCAD 1.35123 | USDCHF 0.9384 | GBPUSD 1.26103 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows  

EURUSD               1.13700 | 1.13281

USDJPY                107.366 | 107.184

GBPUSD               1.26358 | 1.26026

USDCHF               0.93893 | 0.93641

AUDUSD              0.69944 | 0.69697

NZDUSD              0.65901 | 0.65613

USDCAD               1.35236 | 1.35003

EURCHF               1.06465 | 1.06300

EURGBP               0.89996 | 0.89819

EURJPY                121.966 | 121.513

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A slow rise from the opening level to push lightly above the 1.2625 area before drifting through to the low of the session testing towards the 1.2600 area and holding quietly through the session in a narrow range around the 1.2610 area before pushing higher again towards the 1.2630 level for the run into the grey hour, Topside weakness through to the 1.2700 level if there is any momentum to be found, stronger offers appear around the 1.2700 level and those congestive offers are likely to continue through to the 1.2750 area before weakening a little until the 1.2800 level and the highs from last month come into view and break out stops likely on a strong push through the level. Downside bids light through the 1.2600 area and weak stops likely to see the market continuing to fall through to the 1.2500 area before bids start to appear.
  • JPY: A narrow range through the Asian session, opening around the 107.30 levels before dipping in early Tokyo push through to the 107.20 level with a light push through before moving off the area to test to the 107.35 area to slowly turn lower drifting back to the opening level again. topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside weak through the 107.00 level before opening for a fresh run at the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6985 area the move through into early Tokyo saw the market testing through to the 0.6995 area before dropping quickly back to test to the 0.6970 level, a quiet range then for a few hours before moving higher and through the 0.6990 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the current level with increasing through the 0.7000 area and while there could be weak stops through the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
  • EUR: A quiet start to the session before rising steadily into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.1345 level before drifting back and holding for a short period on the 1.1330 area and starting the rally again through to the 1.1350, the break through the level saw some limited stops and the market running into the 1.1370 area before moving into the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1200  level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside likely to increase through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through  to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.

 

 

Overnight News

 

HKD:

Hong Kong increases intervention to HKD 15.764b to defend peg – BBG

JPY:

Japan is reeling from devastating rains and flooding, with more on the way – WPT

CNY:

Case for stronger Yuan starts to look compelling – China Today

CNY/USD:

ForMin Min Yi: China is willing to develop ties with US based on sincerity

Hopes US can build a more objective, calm understanding of China to formulate more rational and pragmatic China policy

China will resume dialog and resume all level talks

China will not and cannot become another America

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

GBP        RICS House Price Balance (JUN) A -15% | C -25% | P -32%

NZD       ANZ Business Confidence A -29.8 | P 34.4

AUD       Home Loans MoM A -10.2% | P -4.4% | R -5.0%

CNY       CPI MoM (JUN) A -0.1% | C -0.5% | P -0.8%

CNY       CPI YoY (JUN) A 2.5% | C 2.5% | P 2.4%

CNY       PPI YoY (JUN) A -3.0% | C -3.2% | P -3.7%

1200      EUR       German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks

1215      CAD       Housing Starts (JUN) A | C 198k | P 193.5k

1230      USD       Initial Jobless Claims A | C 1,375k | P 1,427k

1230      CAD       Building Permits MoM (MAY) A | P -17.1%

2245      NZD       Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A | P 78.9%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet opening saw the early push through to the 1.2565 level before holding quietly around the 1.2555 level through to the London session, an hour into London saw the market dropping steadily back through to the 1.2510 level, £30b stimulus package helped the Cable to recover through into the NYK session and eventually pushing on to test the 1.2600 before the London close before dipping and running higher after the close to test above the 1.2620 level and drift through to the days end.
  • JPY: A steady rise through into early Tokyo testing the 107.70 level and the highs for the day, a steady drift back for the move into the grey hours testing the opening levels around the 107.50 area and into the London session pushing quickly for the 107.40 level before slowly recovering and ranging around the 107.55 level through into the NYK session before drifting through to the close testing the 107.20 level with some weak USD selling moving through the market, a slow rise through to the close saw the market pushing the 107.30 level.
  • AUD: A slow move through the Asian session opening around the 0.6945 area before drifting a little for the move through to the grey hour ranging around the 0.t6940 level, grey hour selling saw the market testing below the 0.6930 area and not really improving until late into the London session and pushing through into the NYK session testing through to the 0.6970 area before pausing for the London close and then running slowly through to the 0.6980 area for the run to close.
  • EUR: A very quiet session through Asia, ranging around the 1.1275 with a minor dip through to the mid 1.1265 area bouncing off the level and running into the London opening testing to the 1.1295 then drifting back towards the lows again for a fresh rally into the NYK session and following through eventually on a steady push through to the 1.1340 area with barely a pause before drifting for a final push to the 1.1350, a slow drift through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

JPY         Current account n.s.a. (MAY) A 1.177t | C 1.088t | P 0.263t

CHF        Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (JUN) A 3.2% | C 3.4% | P 3.4%

CHF        Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN) A 3.3% | C 3.6% | P 3.4% | R 3.2%

EUR       ECB’s De Guindos Speaks

EUR       EU Economic Forecasts

EUR       ECB’s De Guindos Speaks

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 2.206m | C -3.114m | P -7.195m

EUR       German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks

 

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.