Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 105.229 | EURUSD 1.20509 | AUDUSD 0.77042 | NZDUSD 0.72232 | USDCAD 1.27399 | USDCHF 0.89892 | GBPUSD 1.37412 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.20820 | 1.20458

USDJPY                105.262 | 104.838

GBPUSD              1.37841 | 1.37301

USDCHF              0.89901 | 0.89614

AUDUSD              0.77308 | 0.76994

NZDUSD              0.72541 | 0.72166

USDCAD              1.27420 | 1.27197

EURCHF               1.08330 | 1.08247

EURGBP              0.87709 | 0.87641

EURJPY                126.853 | 126.640

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A steady rise once the market moved into the Tokyo session lifting off the 1.3740 area to push through into the Tokyo session testing above the 1.3750 area and on a secondary move through to the 1.3785 area before finding sufficient resistance to curb the market but allowing it to maintain the 1.3780 area into the grey hours, topside offers strong into the 1.3800 area before weak stops open up through the 1.3820 area before stronger congestion through the level into the 1.3850 area before weakness starts to appear and the market opens up for a longer term move through to the 1.4100 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.3600 level and weak stops through the level before stronger sentimental bids appear into the 1.3550 areas.
  • JPY: Quiet session moving around the 105.25 area with the Tokyo session slowly selling the market through the 105.10 level and then quickened its pace on a dip to the 104.90 before holding for a short period, a test through the level saw limited effect as the market tested to the 104.84 area into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 106.00 area with congestion through the level with weak stops likely on a move through to the 106.20 area and then further strong congestion into 106.50 area, increasing offers through the 106.70 area and continuing into the 107.00 level with stronger offers on a further test higher into the 107.50 area. Downside bids light back through the 105.00 level with increasing bids into the 104.50 level with bids beginning to fill the market around the level and stronger bids into the 104.00-20 areas and stronger bids below the 103.60 levels.
  • AUD: Opening around the 77 cents level light trading through into the Tokyo session and a steady rise through to the 0.7730 area before levelling off for a long run to the grey hours holding the level, Offers through the 0.7750 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through too the 0.7580 level before stops appear.
  • EUR: Light trading through into the Tokyo session before rising slowly and pausing around the 1.2080 area for a long run into the grey hours, Downside strong sentimental levels 1.1950 and through to the 1.1900 level with stronger bids likely until the 1.1880 breaks and weak stops appear, Topside offers into and through the 1.2080 area continuing to the 1.2120 area before weakness appears and light weak stops open the 1.2150 area for a test, from there though topside offers start to increase into the 1.2200 level and above to limit any sudden moves,

 

 

Overnight News

 

CNY/USD:

Top envoy says US creates instability – SMP

NZD:

NZ to clamp down on property investors as prices soar – BBG

EUR/AUD:

Europe moves to carbon tax Australian goods “who’s idea was that one wonders” – Macrobusiness

USD:

Senior Fed official shrugs off inflation risks from stimulus plan – FTI

Boeing says requiring COVID-19 tests before US domestic flights – RTRs

 

Today’s Data

GBP        BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (JAN) A 7.1% | P 4.8%

AUD       NAB Business Confidence (JAN) A 10 | P 4

NZD       Inflation Expectations QoQ A 1.9% | P 1.6%

0700      EUR       German Trade Balance (DEC) A | C 15.9b | P 16.4b

1500      USD       JOLTs Job Openings (DEC) A | C 6.5m | P 6.527m

1700      USD       FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

2130      USD       API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -4.261m

2330      AUD       Westpac Consumer Sentiment (FEB) A | P -4.5%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet session through Asia ranging around the 1.3720-40 level with much of the range during and illiquid start to the week, after a limited push above the 1.3740 level the market dipped back to the 1.3720-30 area for the move into the grey hours, early Europeans tested above the 1.3740’s again before the London session opened and the market drifted through to the 1.3680 area into the NYK session, slow buying through NYK pushed through to the 1.3750 area before ranging quietly around the 1.3740 areas to the close.
  • JPY: Opening unchanged the market rose into the Tokyo session from the lows around the 105.35 area to push just above the 105.50 area stretching to the 105.55 area before holding around the 105.50 area through to the London opening before running through to the 105.65 level to make the highs just short of the 105.70 area and then holding 105.60 before moving into the NYK session and dropping steadily off in a tight channelled move to range around the 105.20 through to the close.
  • AUD: Opening a little lower around the 0.7665 area rising a little above the 0.7675 area before holding around the 0.7665 level through to the London session, a slow drift through to the 0.7650 area before holding and moving into the NYK session showing a slow rise continuing through to the NYK option cut to make the high around the 0.7710 area before holding quietly around the figure level to the close.
  • EUR: Opening a little lower and rising into the Tokyo session to test through the 1.2050 on a stretch before drifting through to hold quietly around the 1.2035 area through to the London session, a slow drift through to the NYK session before lifting off the 1.2020 lows to push through to the 1.2065 for the highs of the day and then holding around the 1.2050 for the close.

 

Premiership Results

JPY         Current Account n.s.a. (DEC) A 1.166t | C 1.040t | P 1.878t

NZD       NZ National day bank holiday

CHF        Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (JAN) A 3.7% | C 3.4% | P 3.5%

CHF        Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN) A 3.5% | C 3.5% | P 3.4% | R 3.5%

EUR       German Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A 0.0% | C 0.3% | P 0.9% | R 1.5%

GBP        BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks

EUR       ECB Lagarde Speaks

USD       FOMC Member Mester Speaks

 

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.