Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.787 | EURUSD 1.1936 | AUDUSD 0.7594 | NZDUSD 0.70688 | USDCAD 1.22982 | USDCHF 0.91688 | GBPUSD 1.38828 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.19419 | 1.19203

USDJPY                110.842 | 110.629

GBPUSD              1.38980 | 1.38766

USDCHF              0.91882 | 0.91674

AUDUSD              0.75950 | 0.75773

NZDUSD              0.70857 | 0.70615

USDCAD              1.23122 | 1.22906

EURCHF               1.09555 | 1.09452

EURGBP              0.86050 | 0.85849

EURJPY                132.346 | 131.93

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening a touch higher and quickly filling the gap only to range in the 1.3880-90 through into the Tokyo session before running through the 1.3895 highs in early Tokyo, a few hours in the market dipped through to the lows just above the 1.3875 level and a slow rise for the grey hour to the opening levels again, Weak sellers to the topside through the 1.3900 level and then only really increasing in resistance on a move towards the 1.4000 level with weak stops through the level and increasing offers then into the sentimental levels through to the 1.4200 level before stronger offers really appear, downside bids light through to the 1.3850 level and then increasing support through to the 1.3800 level, weak stops on a break of the level and stronger bids thereafter.
  • JPY: Unchanged opening with a limited rise towards the 110.85 level before fixing supply saw the USDJPY dip through to the 110.70 area with later selling slowly pushing towards the 110.60 area for the move into the grey hour, topside strong offers on any move towards the 111.20 level before stops appear however, stronger offers around the 111.50 level likely to limit the first move higher. Downside bids light through to the 109.00 and congestion all the way through, a push through the 108.80 level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market then seeing light congestion to the 108.50 and stronger bids from there on.
  • AUD: A little choppy throughout the Asian session with the market moving off the opening just above the 0.7575 area to test through to the 0.7598 area and define the range with the market bouncing back and forth between the limited range to the grey hour holding around the 0.7585 area, Light offers through to the 0.7620 area with weak stops then appearing for a test into the 0.7750 area however, the area is likely to start to see stronger offers beginning to move in and building through to the 0.7800 area, Downside light bids into the 0.7500 area with stronger congestion just through the area and likely to continue from that point to stronger bids again into the 0.7450 area and repeating through the sentimental levels from there.
  • EUR: A quiet opening saw the market slowly rise through the 1.1940 before the Tokyo fix sent it back into the 1.1930’s and after a brief pause continue through to the 1.1920 level for the low and hold around the area for the grey hour, Light downside bids through the 1.1900 level and weak stops on a dip through to open another run through to the mid 1.18 levels and stronger bids below the 1.1820 level, Topside offers into the 1.1960 area and increasing on any push to the 1.1980-1.2020 area before stronger stops appear opening another push higher.

 

 

Overnight News

 

EUR:

Le Pen says her party won’t win any region in French elections – BBG

ZAR:

  1. Africa increases COVID-19 curbs goes to level 4 lockdown, S. African President says COVID-19 situation has gotten worse – BBG

CNY:

China Banks stockpile record $1t of foreign exchange – BBG

USD:

Republicans senate negotiators ready to move forward on infrastructure after Biden walkback – RTRs

US conducted airstrikes against Iran backed militia groups along Iraq-Syria border region – CNN

NZD:

RBNZ may cease QE bond purchases in coming months – BNZ – BBG

 

Today’s Data

CNY       Chinese Industrial profit YoY (MAY) A 36.40% | P 57.00%

CNY       Chinese Industrial profit YTD (MAY) A 83.4% | P 106.1%

1030      EUR       German BuBa Beermann Speaks

1300      GBP        BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks

1300      EUR       German BuBa Pres. Weidmann Speaks

1400      USD       FOMC Member Williams Speaks

1500      EUR       ECB’s De Guindos Speaks

1810      USD       FOMC Member Quaries Speaks

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Highs made in early Tokyo after a slow drift through into the session to test the 1.3915 area before lifting through to range around the 1.3935 level for a few hours and holding the 1.3925 area through into the grey hour, early London selling saw the market testing through to the 1.3900 area and the market based around the level through into the NYK opening before pushing once again towards the highs only to drift in a long move through towards the end of the session to post a low just above the 1.3870 level and finish just off those lows.
  • JPY: Opening a touch lower and recovering from the 110.85 area to test steadily through to just below the 111.00 level for the high of the day, a slow drift through into the London session testing through to the 110.70 area before finding some light bids before NYK moved in selling and sending the market through to the 110.50 level before finding bids sufficient to push the market back through the 110.80 level and although the market did push a little higher testing towards the 110.90 level the run to the close saw the market generally drifting through to that 110.80 areas for the close.
  • AUD: Quiet through into the Tokyo session then ranging slowly higher through to the grey hour pushing from the 0.7580 low through to the 0.7600 area for the move into the grey hour, light selling through into the 0.7580 area in London waw reversed for the move into the NYK session after a quiet London start, testing through to the 0.7615 area to post the highs the market reversed the gains and seemed to be heading into a Friday close unchanged only to catch a few buyers in the final hour or so to finish just short of the 76 cents level.
  • EUR: Dipping lightly through the 1.1930 level to make early lows in the 1.1926 area before rising into the Tokyo fix to push through the 1.1945 level before settling back to range around the 1.1940 area through into the NYK session, with London remaining in the 1.1940-50 area, NYK saw the market moving quickly through to the mid-1.1960’s before peaking to the 1.1975 area and the high of the day, the move through to the London close saw steady selling through to late in the session with the market recovering off the low of the day around the 1.1925 area to hold in the 1.1940 for the close.

 

Premier Results

NZD       Trade Balance MoM (MAY) A 469m | P 388m | R 414m

NZD       Trade Balance YoY (MAY) A -60m | P 730m | R 760m

JPY         Tokyo Core CPI YoY (JUN) A 0.0% | C -0.1% | P -0.2%

JPY         CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy MoM (JUN) A -0.1% | P -0.4%

EUR       GfK German Consumer Climate (JUL) A -0.3% | C -4.0 | P -7.0 | R -6.9%

USD       Core PCE Price Index MoM (MAY) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.7%

USD       Core PCE Price Index YoY (MAY) A 3.4% | C 3.4% | P 3.1%

USD       PCE Price Index YoY (MAY) A 3.9% | P 3.6%

USD       PCE Price Index (MAY) A 0.4% | P 0.6%

USD       Personal Spending MoM (MAY) A 0.0% | C 0.4% | P 0.5% | R 0.9%

USD       Michigan Consumer Expectations (JUN) A 83.5 | C 83.8 | P 78.8

USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment (JUN) A 85.5 | C 86.4 | P 82.9

USD       US Bakers Hughes Total Rig Count A 470 | P 461 | R 470

 

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.