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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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3 November 2026
A monetary revolution in a risk-off wrapper
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Group digital asset volumes got off to a decent start this week. Total volume for Monday came in at $912 million.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $782 million. Ether volume came in at $49 million.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $4,885 and average position size for ether at $2,455.

Volatility has been in contraction mode since rebounding sharply from its August low. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,863 and $76 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

Digital assets remain under pressure into Tuesday, with bitcoin struggling to regain traction and ether reflecting weakness across the broader decentralized finance and blockchain ecosystem.

The fallout from the Binance security breach has added a direct confidence shock, while outflows from bitcoin and ether investment products have weakened demand.

Geopolitical instability, an uncertain interest-rate outlook and US election risk are compounding concerns about an increasingly vulnerable AI trade.

Nevertheless, our broader interpretation remains constructive. We continue to view the retreat from September’s highs as a correction within a recovery that began after an important cycle low earlier this year, rather than confirmation of a renewed structural downturn.

That interpretation still requires confirmation through stabilization and sustained buying, but the longer-term charts offer a useful counterweight to an overwhelmingly negative daily narrative.

It is also important to distinguish pressures transmitted from traditional markets from the investment case for digital assets themselves. Higher yields, equity weakness and defensive positioning can trigger selling across portfolios, but bitcoin’s monetary proposition and the broader ecosystem’s role in programmable finance extend beyond those immediate influences.

The Binance breach raises serious questions about custody and operational security; it does not, by itself, invalidate the underlying networks.

Our longer-term conviction rests on the migration of financial activity onto blockchain infrastructure. Bitcoin offers exposure to an alternative monetary asset, while Ethereum reflects the broader opportunity in decentralized finance, tokenization, stablecoins and settlement across the digital asset ecosystem.

Adoption does not guarantee immediate token appreciation, but it leaves room for digital assets to attract capital independently of equities. A falling stock market alongside recovering crypto prices should remain a credible scenario, even if a sustained decoupling has yet to emerge.

The immediate catalysts are the US election outcome, incoming labor-market data and evidence that exchange withdrawals and investment-product outflows are settling. Heavy sentiment alone cannot establish a bottom, but it can leave markets vulnerable to an upside surprise when conditions improve.

We therefore retain a constructive medium-term bias, viewing the current uncertainty as a test of the recovery rather than sufficient reason to abandon it.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$1,863
ETHUSD
$76
Tweets Social media

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