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What to make of the return of risk on flow
The market has been looking for any excuse to sell the US Dollar and buy back into stocks. On Thursday, it got what it was looking for, in the form of a soft run of US economic data, highlighted by a downward revision to the personal consumption component of GDP. Audio Update Technical highlights EURUSD […]
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Stagflation risk ramping up
US yields continue to drive higher in the face of a Fed monetary policy outlook that continues to press higher for longer, despite escalating growth concerns. Fresh yearly highs in the price of oil and a sixth session of declines in banking and real estate stocks have only added to stagflation fears. Audio Update Technical […]
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Can’t escape the doom and gloom
Investors are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the prospect of higher for longer policy in the US at a time where there continues to be legitimate concerns about the health of the economy. All of this also comes at a time where monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks has become more […]
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Yield differentials continue to lean to US Dollar
The market is back to worrying about slowing growth in the US, though this hasn’t been enough to inspire much change in overall price action. Indeed, year-end Fed funds trade at 4.65%, versus Fed forecasts of 5.1%. But ultimately, the Fed has continued to go against the will of the market. Audio Update Technical highlights […]
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Takeaways into the end of the week
As we head into Friday, there are two important takeaways from developments this week. The first is that higher for longer Fed policy is something investors need to consider more seriously. The second is that while the Fed has been talking about a solid economy and higher for longer, we haven’t exactly been getting the […]
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Fed refuses to bend to the will of the market
No surprise to see the market reaction in the aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed decision. We had warned the balance of risk was tilted this way in our special report and indeed this is how things have played out. Audio Update Technical highlights EURUSD Extends run of declines GBPUSD Strong support into 1.2000 USDJPY Closing in […]