Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.271 | EURUSD 1.09905 | AUDUSD 0.67373 | NZDUSD 0.63098 | USDCAD 1.33118 | USDCHF 0.9897 | GBPUSD 1.21652|

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.09969 | 1.09818

USDJPY                106.242 | 105.933

GBPUSD              1.21637 | 1.21344

USDCHF               0.99050 | 0.98899

AUDUSD             0.67323 | 0.67197

USDCAD              1.33252 | 1.33131

NZDUSD              0.63119 | 0.62905

EURCHF               1.08832 | 1.0870

EURGBP              0.90488 | 0.90362

EURJPY                116.772 | 116.370

For Today

• GBP: Premarket saw the Cable unchanged however, the opening saw a Cable a little lower and holding around the 1.2150 areas before steadily pushing off the 1.2145 area and filling the gap on the charts testing the 1.2165 area before drifting back in Tokyo to the lows again and a slight rise to the 1.2160 level for the move into the grey hour, downside bids congested through to the 1.2100 level possible weak stops through the level however, congestion reappears with the market thickening on any dip through to the 1.2050 areas with likely stronger bids into the 1.2000 level with option plays likely to be in the mix, topside offers light through the 1.2200 level with some congestion then likely to show through to the 1.2220 areas and the topside then starting to open through to the 1.2260-1.2300 with offers increasing on any test through the 1.2260 level, stops likely to be reasonably stronger through the 1.2320 areas and the market then opening up to further gains with very light offers around the 1.2360 level.
• JPY: Opening a little lower and testing through the 106.00 level before recovering from the 105.95 area and a push into the Tokyo session slowly testing through to the 106.25 areas and almost closing the gap on the charts in quiet trading, Downside bids starting to light through the 106.00 level but some congestion through to the 105.80 areas before firming up around the 105.00 areas and increasing on any move to the 104.50 level with stops likely to not appear until through the 104.00 level and the likelihood of buyers willing to buy into any dips, Topside offers through the 106.80 area likely to be reasonably strong with possible weak stops through the 107.00 area opening a challenge to the 107.50 level before stronger congestion appears with limited potential to squeeze to the 108.00 level.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.6730 level the market dipped through to the 0.6725 areas for the move through into the Tokyo session and a limited rise to the 0.6735-40 area before dropping back from the Tokyo fix and making the lows around the 0.6720 area only to recover holding briefly above the 0.6730 level and steadily drifting onto the 0.6725 area to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 67 cents level and likely to extend through to the 0.6680 area before weak and breakout stops are likely to appear and varying degrees of support through to the 66 cents level but overall weak congestion. Topside offers light through to the 0.6740 area with weak congestion beginning and increasing on a push through the 0.6760 level and stronger offers still on a move to the 68 cents areas.
• EUR: Opening just a touch lower before rising to test above the 1.0995 areas before drifting and trading around the 1.0985 area through to the grey hour in a quiet session, downside bids into the 1.0960 areas, with weak congestion through to the 1.0940 level and weak bids through to the 1.0900 level where stronger bids might appear with weak stops on a push through with stronger bids likely into the 1.0860 level and possibly deeper bids. Topside offers light back through the 1.1000 areas with weak stops above the 1.1020 level opening the market to a possible squeeze through to the 1.1080 areas and offers reappearing.

Overnight News

USD:

The almighty USD needs a rival for good of global finance BBG Businessweek

EUR:

Germany: State elections likely give Merkel more time

AfD’s failure to deliver knock out blow will ease pressure on Merkel – TEL

AUD:

Banks still running scared: Aussie home loans BTI

Australia’s endgame for rates draws closer as commodities slump BBG

Mortgage growth at record lows despite banks borrower blitz – AFR

USD/CNY:

US and Chinese tariffs went into effect early Sunday FX Street

HKD/CNY:

Hong Kong relationship with Beijing after protests is what matters now SMP

China to hold press conference on Hong Kong on Tuesday – BBG

CNY:

Falling Yuan adds to debt stress at mainland builders SMP

China clamps down on capital flight risk as yuan weakens Nikkei

China factory outlook worsens in August as trade war escalates BBG

China’s manufacturing starts expanding again Caixin PMI

CNY/USD:

China state media on the US futile trade war stop acting as a school bully Xinhua

China is an unbent nail in face of US tactic of maximum pressure – Xinhua

China’s determination to fight against the US economic warmongering has only grown stronger Xinhua

Their trade war is hurting the American people and businesses Xinhua

NZD:

NZ Treasury says continued weakness in business confidence, economic growth Forex Live

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

22:30     AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG) A 53.1 | P 51.3

22:45     NZD       Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q) A -2.6% | P 1.0%

01:00     AUD       TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG) A | P 1.8%

01:00     AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation (SEP) A | P 3.5%

01:45     CNY        Caixin China PMI Mfg (AUG) A 50.4 | C 49.8 | P 49.9

06:30     CHF        Retail Sales Real (YoY) (JUL) P 0.7%

07:30     CHF        PMI Manufacturing (AUG) C 45.7 | P 44.7

08:30     GBP        Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (AUG) C 49.5 | P 48

14:30     MXN      Markit Mexico PMI Mfg (AUG) P 49.8

23:50     JPY         Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG) P 3.7%

23:50     JPY         Monetary Base End of period (AUG) P ¥518.1t

Harry Hindsight

 

• GBP: A slow drift from the 1.2185 level having opened just below that level and slipping through to the grey hour testing the 1.2175 areas, the market ran back to the highs before moving through into the London session pushing a little above the 1.2190 area before dropping quickly back to the 1.2165 level and a choppy session testing to the 1.2160 level and through to just below the 1.2200 area before steadying for the move into the NYK session and a steady rise through to the 1.2225 level before dropping quickly back to the 1.2180 areas again in strong selling and then drifting to make lows around the 1.2140 level and a slow recovery to the close.
• JPY: A slow drift over the course of the day with very little movement, opening around the 106.50 level the market tested slowly through to the 106.40 level before recovering a little and returning to its drifting ways through this time into the London session before London took the market back to the opening area, finding no way higher and dropping back to the 106.40 area for the move into the NYK session, and a deeper drift through to make the lows around the 106.10 areas, the end of the London session saw a resurgent USD pushing through the 106.40 level and as with other moves higher it ended quickly and the market reversed for the move into the close.
• AUD: Early gains to test above the 0.6735 area before dropping quickly back after rather dull and weak numbers testing quickly to the 0.6710 areas before holding quietly and starting a slight rise through to the London session holding just below the 0.6720 level, London were slow buyers taking the market steadily back to the opening level with a quick sell on the move into the NYK session before quickly reversing and testing quickly through the 0.6735 level to eventually push the 0.6740 areas, the end of London undercut the market a little only for late buyers to move back in and the market recovering from the 0.6720 level to finish towards the highs.
• EUR: For the most part a slow day for the Euro well that is until the end of London, opening around the 1.1055 area the market tested through to 1.1060 before slowly drifting through Asia holding around the 1.1045 level through to the London session before slipping back a little to the 1.1035 levels, and there it remained through the session with the market pushing the 1.1050 just before dropping back quickly and testing through the 1.1000 level and initially holding the 1.0985 area before again giving way and weak stops tested through to the 1.0965 level before bouncing weakily for the run to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) A -3.1% | P -3.9%

GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG) A -14 | C -11 | P -11

JPY         Jobless Rate (JUL) A 2.2% | C 2.3% | P 2.3%

JPY         Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) A -2.0% | C -0.6% | P 0.5%

JPY         Large Retailers’ Sales (JUL) A -4.8% | C -4.5% | P -0.5%

JPY         Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P) A 0.7% | C -0.5% | P -3.8%

AUD       Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL) A -28.5% | C -22.2% | P -25.6% | R 25.0%

AUD       Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL) A 3.1% | C 3.2% | P 3.3%

JPY         Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL) A -4.1% | C -5.4% | P 0.3%

JPY         Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL) A 56.9% | P -4.2%

GBP        Nationwide House Px n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) A 0.6% | C 0.7% | P 0.3%

EUR        German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) A 4.4% | C 3.3% | P -1.6% | R -1.4%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator (AUG) A 95.1 | C 95.2 | P 97.1 | R 97.0%

GBP        Consumer Credit (YoY) (JUL) A 5.5% | P 5.5%

GBP        Net Consumer Credit (JUL) A 0.9b | C 1.0b | P 1.0b

GBP        Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL) A 4.6b | C 3.7b | P 3.7b | R 3.6b

GBP        Mortgage Approvals (JUL) A 67.3k | C 66.1k | P 66.4k | R 66.5k

EUR        Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL) A 7.5% | C 7.5% | P 7.5%

EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG A) A 0.9% | C 1.0% | P 0.9%

EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG) A 1.0% | C 1.0% | P 1.1%

EUR        Italian Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F) A 0.1% | C 0.0% | P 0.0%

CAD       Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q) A 3.7% | C 3.0% | P 0.4% | R 0.5%

USD        Personal Income (JUL) A 0.1% | C 0.3% | P 0.4%

CAD       Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUN) A 0.2% | C 0.1% | P 0.2%

CAD       Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN) A 1.5% | C 1.4% | P 1.4%

USD        Personal Spending (JUL) A 0.6% | C 0.5% | P 0.3%

USD        Real Personal Spending (JUL) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

USD        PCE Core (MoM) (JUL) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%

USD        PCE Core (YoY) (JUL) A 1.6% | C 1.6% | P 1.6%

USD        Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG) A 50.4 | C 47.9 | P 44.4

USD        U. of Mich. Sentiment (AUG F) A 89.8 | C 92.3 | P 92.1

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