Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.484 | EURUSD 1.11509 | AUDUSD 0.68518 | NZDUSD 0.65738 | USDCAD 1.31593 | USDCHF 0.98012 | GBPUSD 1.31313 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.11543 | 1.11294

USDJPY                109.567 | 109.417

GBPUSD              1.31342 | 1.30724

USDCHF               0.98084 | 0.97983

AUDUSD            0.68554 | 0.68410

USDCAD              1.31686 | 1.31508

NZDUSD              0.65735 | 0.65553

EURCHF               1.09332 | 1.09195

EURGBP              0.85177 | 0.84912

EURJPY                 122.163 | 121.811

 

For Today

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3130 area early trading saw the market lightly moving through to the Tokyo session pushing towards the 1.3140 level before dipping on early Tokyo sellers and testing to the 1.3100 level, a little dip through to the 1.3070’s saw the midsession buying moving in to recover to the 1.3100 level for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids light through to the 1.3060 level where strong bids start to appear and a limited base for the market with weak stops through the level setting up the market to test the 1.3000 areas and back to the previous ranges before the election announcement and congestion building through the 1.2980 areas onwards with particular strength around the sentimental levels, Topside offers light through to the 1.3400 level with limited offers continuing through and increasing as the market then closes on the 1.3500 levels, so wide open for the moment.
  • JPY: Opening around the 109.50 areas with the market a little choppy from the opening before starting a rise from the early lows towards the 109.45 area to push through to the 109.57 level into Tokyo, the Tokyo fix over with the market dipped through to test to the 109.40 area and ranging quietly around the 109.45 levels Topside strong offers around 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only to the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
  • AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz with the market opening just above the 0.6850 area and dipping lightly through the Tokyo session to set the low just above the 0.6840 areas before holding quietly around the 0.6845 area to the grey hours, , Topside offers likely to be around the 0.6950 area with limited weakness through 0.6960 before stronger offers start to appear on any move through to the 0.6980-0.7020 levels, possible stops through the level and the market then limited to the 0.7050 area and congestion then increasing on any attempt to push to the 0.7080-0.7100 levels, downside bids limited through to the 69 cents level with weak stops likely to be increasing on any dip through the 0.6880 area and the downside then opening up again through to the 0.6750 levels.
  • EUR: Early highs made just before the Tokyo session opened testing lightly towards the 1.1155 level before moving into the Tokyo session drifting steadily through to the grey hours to test the 1.1130 area in quiet trading. Topside offers through the 1.1200 with option plays likely through to the 1.1220 area and possible weak stops through level and opening up further gains however, congestion is likely to increase into the 1.1250 areas but finally testing into the stronger congestion from earlier in the year with offers likely to increase into the 1.1275-1.1300 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level with bids likely on any dips too the 1.1080 before stronger stops appear and the market again opening to weaker congestion on a test through to the 1.1000 level where stronger bids are likely to appear.

 

Overnight News

USD:

Majority of House supports Trumps impeachment USNews

JPY/KRW:

Japan short circuits the tech exports that made S. Korea rich BBG

NZD:

NZ FinMin Roberson: 6 out of 8 banks found to have living will shortcomings BBG

Robertson: Biggest banks living wills have no deficiencies, – BBG

Robertson: to make final decisions on deposit insurance in mid-2020 BBG

Robertson: Plans deposit insurance, plans RBNZ Governance board BBG

EUR/GBP:

EU warns of Brexit cliff as UK excludes longer transition BBG

USD/CNY:

Tech industry shudders as US weighs new limits on Huawei sales BBG

NOK:

The richest Nordic economy can’t afford more central bank hikes – BBG

AUD:

NAB retail points to best month since February AFR

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Current Account Gross Domestic Product Ratio YTD (3Q) A -3.2% | C -3.4% | P -3.4%

AUD       Westpac Leading Index MoM (NOV) A -0.009% | P -0.07%

JPY         Trade Balance (NOV) A -82.1b | C -350b | P 17.3b

0830       EUR        ECB President Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt

0900       EUR        German IFO Business Climate (DEC) C 95.5 | P 95.0

0900       EUR        German IFO Current Assessment (DEC) C 98.1 | P 97.9

0900       EUR        German IFO Expectations (DEC) C 93.0 | P 92.1

0930       GBP       CPI YoY (NOV) C 1.4% | P 1.5%

0930       GBP       Core CPI YoY (NOV) C 1.7% | P 1.7%

0930       GBP       CPIH YoY (NOV) C 1.5% | P 1.5%

0930       GBP       CPI MoM (NOV) C 0.2% | P -0.2%

0930       GBP       House Price Index YoY (OCT) P 1.3%

1000       EUR        Eurozone CPI YoY (NOV F) C 1.0% | P 0.7%

1000       EUR        Eurozone CPI Core YoY (NOV F) C 1.3% | P 1.3%

1200       USD       MBA Mortgage applications (DEC 13) P 3.8%

1330       CAD       CPI YoY (NOV) P 1.9%

1330       CAD       CPI n.s.a. MoM (NOV) P 0.3%

1530       USD       DoE US Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 13) P 822k

2145       NZD       GDP YoY (3Q) C 2.3% | P 2.1%

2145       NZD       GDP s.a. QoQ (3Q) C 0.5% | P 0.5%

2145       NZD       Trade Balance (NOV) C -700m | P -1013m

2145       NZD       Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (NOV) C -4730m | P -5037m

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: PM Johnson starts to flex his new found power and the market and once early Tokyo read the news the market dropped off from the opening around the 1.3350 areas testing the 1.3245 level and then slowly recovering to the 1.3300 through the balance of the Asian session, the move into the grey hours saw early Europeans selling the market back to the 1.3250 level and the opening in London saw the market drop quickly again through to the 1.3160 areas and ranging through to the NYK session holding just above the 1.3150 level, NYK slowly sold the market back for the final 50 pips to test the 1.3100 level before holding around the 1.3120-30 area through to the close, with concern about the increased chance of a no deal Brexit.
  • JPY: A limited range but choppy through the day, moving off the 109.55 level in early trading to push through to make the early highs around the 109.63 level before falling back as a round of GBPJPY selling moved through the market to test to the 109.50 level and then a steady recovery with the market moving through to deep into the London session to again test the highs before holding around the 109.55-60 level deep into the NYK session before dropping back to hold the lows around the 109.45 area and the market finishing the day ranging around the 109.50 area to the close.
  • AUD: Opening just below the 0.6890 areas and drifting in early trading down through to the 0.6870 level for the move into the Tokyo session, the move through to the London session saw the market holding around the 0.6865 level and the London opening saw a push through to the 0.6850 areas and ranging through to the NYK session before seeing a similar attempt to press lower and lightly pushed the 0.6840 area for the low of the day before ranging again around the 0.6850 area to the close.
  • EUR: A reasonably quiet Asian session with the market dipping from the opening as GBP dragged on the Euro and the market dipped from the early lows just below the 1.1150 area through to the mid 1.1135’s before starting a slow rise to recover the losses through into the grey hours, again GBP came under pressure and the Euro saw a limited dip through to the lows of the day testing just through the 1.1130 level, with the EURGBP breaking quickly through the 0.8400 level stops were triggered and the Euro pushed through to the 1.1160 level before slowing its ascent and slowly pushing through to just below the 1.1170 level for the move into the NYK session with early traders pushing through to the 1.1175 area and then selling the market back again to hit the opening levels around the 1.1145 area and base along that line through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       ANZ Activity Outlook (DEC) A 17.2 | P 12.9

AUD       RBA Minutes of Dec. Policy Meeting (DEC)

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3m/YoY (OCT) A 3.2% | C 3.4% | P 3.6% | R 3.7%

GBP       Claimant Count Rate (NOV) A 3.5% | P 3.4%

GBP       Employment Change 3m/3m (OCT) A 24k | C -24k | P -58k

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3mths (OCT) A 3.8% | C 3.9% | P 3.8%

GBP       Jobless Claims Change (NOV) A 28.8k | P 33.0k | R 26.4k

GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3m/YoY (OCT) A 3.5% | C 3.4% | P 3.6%

USD       Building Permits MoM (NOV) A 1.4% | C -3.8% | P 5.0%

USD       Housing Starts MoM (NOV) A 3.2% | C 2.0% | P 3.8%

USD       Industrial Production MoM (NOV) A 1.1% | C 0.8% | P -0.8% | R -0.9%

USD       Manufacturing (SIC) Production (NOV) A 1.1% | C 0.8% | P -0.6%

GBP       BoE’s Carney Speaks at Coeure’s farewell dinner

 

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