Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.788 | EURUSD 1.09159 | AUDUSD 0.67141 | NZDUSD 0.64004 | USDCAD 1.32868 | USDCHF 0.9758 | GBPUSD 1.29526
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09211 | 1.09117
USDJPY 109.893 | 109.77
GBPUSD 1.29690 | 1.29518
USDCHF 0.97591 | 0.97505
AUDUSD 0.67377 | 0.67131
USDCAD 1.32950 | 1.32786
NZDUSD 0.64766 | 0.6404
EURCHF 1.06558 | 1.06431
EURGBP 0.84262 | 0.84159
EURJPY 119.988 | 119.841
For Today
- GBP: A slow rise from the opening to push the highs from yesterday testing the 1.2970 level before drifting back a little to hold in the 1.2960’s through to the grey hours, Topside offers light back through the 1.3000 level with some limited congestion on a test to the 1.3050 area but the market only lightly defended then through to the 1.3150 area with limited stops through the 1.3100 areas, downside bids strong through into the 1.2900 level however, weak stops growing behind the level and limited congestion through to the 1.2850 level and increasing only once the market moves through the area to head for the 1.2800 area.
- JPY: A slow rise through to the highs in midsession testing towards the 109.90 area before drifting in a quiet session holding in the low 109.80’s to the grey hours, Topside offers likely to be limited with weak stops on a push through the 110.20 area and opening up limited room through to the 110.50 and increasing resistance as the market approaches the 111.00 areas, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area with limited support and weak stops likely to be light for a move back to the stronger 108.50 area with good support likely to appear on any dips to the 108.00 levels.
- AUD: Opening quietly and moving into the Tokyo session testing the 0.6720 area before dipping and then running on the Tokyo fix to test the 0.6735 level, the market then eventually pushed lightly through the level before trading steadily around the 0.6730 area through to the grey hours, downside bids cleared through to the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with strong offers likely to increase into the 0.6800/20 area with weak stops appearing through the level and 0.6840-60 likely to be stronger.
- EUR: A slow slide lower slipping from the opening 1.0920 areas and testing through to hold the 1.0910 through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.1040 area with limited congestion then appearing through to the 1.1070 level where stronger offers are suspected. Downside bids into the 1.0900 level and likely to continue through to 1.0880 before weak stops move into the market with a small gap through to the 1.0860 level where stronger bids appear and congestion through to the 1.0800 level likely with possibly a set of stops around the 1.0840-30 area.
Overnight News
NZD:
RBNZ: Maintains benchmark interest rate at 1%
RBNZ Sees average OCR in 3Q 2020 at 1.01%
RBNZ Sees average OCR in 1Q 2021 at 1.03%
RBNZ Sees average OCR in 2Q 2021 at 1.01%
RBNZ Sees average OCR in 3Q 2021 at 1%
RBNZ: Employment slightly above maximum sustainable level
RBNZ: Coronavirus outbreak is emerging downside risk
RBNZ: Forecasts show no chance of rate cut in 2020
RBNZ: Low rates necessary to keep employment, CPI around target
RBNZ: GDP growth expected to accelerate in second half of 2020
RBNZ: Econ impact of virus in NZ will be of short duration
RBNZ: Raises 2Q GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7%
RBNZ: Sees indications household spending growth will increase
RBNZ: Policy has time to adjust to virus impact if needed
RBNZ: Policy committee reached consensus on rate decision
RBNZ: Fiscal stimulus is reducing burden on monetary policy
NZ retail card spending unexpectedly fell in Jan – BBG
JPY:
Japan Defence Minister says quarantine officer has Coronavirus
CNY:
China’s virus crisis hits global flows of letters, parcels – APW
China home sales plunged 90% in first week of Feb on Virus – BBG
USD:
API reports US crude stockpiles rose 6m bbl last week – BBG
Powell: Risks to outlook remain closely monitoring Coronavirus
Powell: Policy likely appropriate barring material reassessment
Powell: Virus could cause disruption in China with spill overs
Trump: Fed rate is too high, USD tough on exports
GBP:
BoE’s Limited policy space argues for immediate cut, Haskel says – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD RBNZ Official Cash Rate (FEB 12) A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
NZD RBNZ Governor News Conference After OCR Decision
JPY Machine Tool Orders YoY (JAN P) A -35.6%| P -33.5%
1000 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. YoY (DEC) C -1.9% | P -1.5%
1200 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 7) P 5.0%
1500 USD Powell Testifies Before Senate Banking Panel
1530 USD DOE US US Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 7) P 3355k
1900 USD Monthly Budget Statement (JAN) C 6.2b | P -13.3b
1910 NZD Governor at Parliament Select Committee on MPS
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2910 area the market ranged around the opening level pushing towards the 1.2920 level then holding steady between the levels through to the grey hours, early London selling saw the market dropping back through the 1.2900 level in front of the data releases and pushed off the low of 1.2895 quickly as the numbers generally came in better than expected and pushed through to the 1.2940 level before finding limited resistance, the market then drifted through to the NYK session and then again rallied this time bursting through to the 1.2970 level dipping back and running a second time before holding around the 1.2955 area to the close.
- JPY: A slow start saw the market holding around the opening 109.75 area and not until the Tokyo fix did the market move pushing quickly through to the 109.85 area and then slowly rising through the session testing to the 109.90 level before slowing and drifting back a little only to recover for the move into the grey hours, early London extended the highs but, only just testing towards the 109.95 area before moving fully into London and a steady drift through to the 109.80’s area again falling on the opening into the NYK session testing back to the opening levels before holding quietly, Powell’s speech pushed the market through to again extend the highs and again extending that high by a pip or two before dropping back to the 109.80 level, the move to the close saw the market extend the low in the same fashion as the highs by a pip or two before finishing the day just above the opening level and off those 109.72 area.
- AUD: The Oz opened around the lows with a slight dip into the Tokyo opening to make the low around the 0.6684/3 area and then never really looked back, trading with the movement in the JPY saw the Oz push steadily above the 67 cent level and then slowly rise through to the 0.6720 area for the move into the grey hours, the market drifted a little for the London session testing the 67 cents level into the NYK opening where buyers reappear and a steady push through to the highs testing the 0.6735 level before dipping on the Powell’s speech to hold around the 0.6715 level through to the close.
- EUR: A reasonably quiet session through to the NYK session with the market holding between the 1.0905-15 area, the move through to the NYK session saw the market slowly pushing to the 1.0920 level before dipping into the Lagarde speech and then quickly rising having dipped through to the 1.0895 level last seen in Oct last year, the market then started to reverse and push steadily through to make the high of the day testing the 1.0925 area before holding in a steadily declining range to the close around the 1.0918 area.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD Home Loans Value MoM (DEC) A 4.4% | C 1.6% | P 1.9%
AUD Investor Lean Value MoM (DEC) A 2.8% | C 1.6% | P 2.5%
AUD NAB Business confidence (JAN) A -1 | P -2
GBP GDP YoY (4Q P) A 1.1% | C 0.8% | P 1.1% | R 1.2%
GBP Construction Output A 5.0% | C 3.7% | P 2.0% | R 2.6%
GBP GDP QoQ (4Q P) A 0.0% | C 0.0% | P 0.4% | R 0.5%
GBP Industrial Production YoY (DEC) A-1.8% | C -0.8% | P -1.6% | R -2.5%
GBP Manufacturing Production YoY (DEC) A -2.5% | C -1.0% | P -2.0% | R -3.3%
GBP Monthly GDP MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P -0.3%
GBP Trade Balance (DEC) A 7715m | C -350m | P -4031m | R 1821m
GBP Trade Balance non-EU (DEC) A 6721m | C -2000m | P 1734m | R 2364m
GBP Visible Trade Balance (DEC) A 845m | C -10000m | P -5256m | R -4947m
MXN Industrial Production n.s.a. YoY (DEC) A -1.0% | C -0.5% | P -2.1%
EUR ECB Pres. Lagarde Speaks in Strasbourg EU Parliament
USD Powell to speak before House Financial Services Panel
GBP BoE Governor Carney Speaks before Lords Committee
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.