Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.975 | EURUSD 1.20433 | AUDUSD 0.76078| NZDUSD 0.71501 | USDCAD 1.27822 | USDCHF 0.89744 | GBPUSD 1.36685 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20501 | 1.20361
USDJPY 105.079 | 104.923
GBPUSD 1.36829 | 1.36591
USDCHF 0.89801 | 0.89707
AUDUSD 0.76207 | 0.76021
NZDUSD 0.72255 | 0.71863
USDCAD 1.27886 | 1.27636
EURCHF 1.08139 | 1.08068
EURGBP 0.88153 | 0.88052
EURJPY 126.635 | 126.395
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3665 level and holding in a tight range through to the Tokyo session before rising through to the 1.3680 area to range there for a couple of hours and then slowly slipping back through to the opening levels again for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.3750 area with weak stops covered by stronger offers the closer the market pushes towards the 1.3800 area, weak stops through the level on a move through and likely to continue only a short distance before weakness appears and the topside opens up through to the 1.40 handle with sentimental offers limited. Downside bids through the 1.3650 level and increasing into the 1.3600 area and stops losses through the level run through to the 1.3550 area and strong bids start to appear and continue to increase into the 1.3500 level.
- JPY: A quiet range through the session with the market opening just above the 104.95 area and easing lightly through the 105.05 areas to move into the Tokyo session falling back to push through and range around the 104.95 level before returning to the 105.00 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 105.00-20 area with possible weak stops through the level before stronger offers start to appear in a congestive move through into the 105.60 level and after a little bit of weakness increases through to the 106.00 level with stronger stops above the 106.20-30 area. Downside bids light through to the 104.50 level with bids beginning to fill the market around the level and stronger into the 104.00-20 areas and stronger bids below the 103.60 levels.
- AUD: A light range around the 0.7610 area rising to base above the level and test the 0.7620 area for the move into the grey hours having tested lightly towards the 76 cents early in the session, downside bids light through to the 0.7560 area and bids likely to be strong through to the 0.7550 areas and increasing on any move into the 0.7500-0.7480 area with strong stops through the level and opening stronger downside potential, topside bids light through the 0.7650 area and limited build of offers around the 77 cents level sees limited stops and the market then starting to increase resistance on any move through the 0.7750 level.
- EUR: A very quiet session like the other pairs with the Euro opening around the 1.2045 level and remaining in the area, a limited dip through the 1.2040 area and unable to push through the 1.2050 the market held quietly through to the grey hours, Downside strong bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on a move through the 1.1980 area and supportive congestion around the sentimental levels through to the 1.1900 level, Topside offers into and through the 1.2080 area continuing to the 1.2120 area before weakness appears and light weak stops open the 1.2150 area for a test, from there though topside offers start to increase into the 1.2200 level and above to limit any sudden moves,
Overnight News
EUR:
Italy’s Pres. Summons Draghi as likely Premier – BBG
NZD:
NZ jobless rate unexpectedly falls on hiring bounce and strategy – BBG
AUD:
RBA Lowe: Risk upward pressure on AUD if ceased bond buying in April
Lowe: Need to consider shifting YCC target from April 24 to NOV 24
Lowe: Board has no appetite to see negative cash rate
RBA applies maximum pressure on AUD – DJ
USD:
Yellen: IMF Chief discuss need for multilateral solutions on debt, and other issues – RTRs
US Senate takes first steps toward massive stimulus – AFP
Biden administration indicates in no hurry to engage China – RTRs
EUR/GBP:
Vaccine storm engulfs EU chief von der Leyen – AFP
Macron reiterates unsubstantiated scientific data that Oxford AstraZenica vaccine is ineffective
European agents removed from Irish border areas
- Ireland leaders condemn threats against port staff as Brexit checks suspended – SKY
Gove urges Brussels to take action as N. Ireland tensions rise – FT
Today’s Data
NZD Employment Change QoQ (Q4) A 0.6% | C -0.8% | P -0.8%
NZD Unemployment Rate (Q4) A 4.9% | C 5.6% | P 5.3%
AUD Building Approvals MoM (DEC) A 10.9% | P 2.6%
JPY Services PMI (JAN) A 46.1 | P 47.7
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks
CNY Caixin Services PMI (JAN) A 52.0 | P 56.3
0800 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
0815 EUR Spanish Services PMI (JAN) A | C 45.3 | P 48.0
0855 EUR German Services PMI (JAN) A | C 46.8 | P 46.8
0900 EUR Markit Composite PMI (JAN) A | C 47.5 | P 47.5
0900 EUR Services PMI (JAN) A | C 45.0 | P 45.0
0930 GBP Composite PMI (JAN) A | C 40.6 | P 40.6
0930 GBP Services PMI (JAN) A | C 38.8 | P 38.8
1000 EUR Core CPI YoY (JAN) A | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
1000 EUR CPI YoY (JAN) A | C 0.5% | P -0.3%
1030 EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
1315 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (JAN) A | C 49k | P -123k
1445 USD Markit Composite PMI (JAN) A | P 58.0
1445 USD Services PMI (JAN) A | P 57.5
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (JAN) A | P 48.7
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 56.8 | P 57.7
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C 0.446m | P -9.910m
1730 EUR German BuBa vice Pres. Buch Speaks
1800 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
1900 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
2145 NZD Building Consents MoM (DEC) A | P 1.2%
2200 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
2305 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: light rise from the 1.3660 low in early trading to test the 1.3680 level, the market marked time through into the Tokyo session before starting a slow through to the 1.2695 area with limited push at the 1.3700 level before drifting through into the London session pushing off the 1.3675 area to push through the figure level this time and stalling around the 1.3710 area to steadily drifting through into the NYK session tipping into a deeper incline through the 1.3610 area before slowly recovering through the 1.3650 area for the close.
- JPY: Choppy opening before drifting through to the Tokyo session dropping through to the low 104.80’s before rising slowly through the 104.95 area opening and the market holding through to the grey hours in the 105.00 area unable to push the 105.10 level, London tested the lows again before running back higher for the NYK opening with a quick push through to the 105.18 high of the day and a slow drift back to the opening levels for the close.
- AUD: A slow rise from the 0.7620 area with early trading expecting some stronger commentary for the RBA release, testing initially to the 0.7640 level and then through into Tokyo pushing through to the 0.7660 area and then dropping quickly back as the unchanged and dovish comments hit the wires testing quickly to the 0.7620 area bouncing weakly and then dipping for the run into the London session holding the 0.7605 level, recovering to the 0.7630 area and then a steady decline through to drop quickly on the move into the NYK session to test through into the 0.7560 areas before recovering slowly to hold above the 76 cents area for the close.
- EUR: A slow rise from the opening 1.2060 area to push just above the 1.2080 area into the Tokyo session before ranging quietly for a couple of hours above the 1.2080 area, the market eventually drifted back through into the grey hours holding just above the opening area before London stepped in and ran again towards the 1.2090 level failing for the second time dropping quickly on a move through the 1.2060 area to test the 1.2030 area slowly rising in the NYK session to the 1.2050 area and dipping through to range around the 1.2020 until late in the session before finishing in the mid 1.2045 area.
Premiership Results
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (JAN) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
GBP Nationwide HPI MoM A -0.3% | P 0.8% | R 0.9%
GBP Nationwide HPI YoY A 6.4% | P 7.3%
EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A 76.2k | P 36.8k
EUR GDP YoY (Q4) A -5.1% | C -4.3% | P -4.3%
EUR GDP QoQ (Q4) A -0.7% | C 12.7% | P 12.7% | R 12.4%
USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -4.261m | P -5.272m
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.