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It’s all about what’s priced in to the market and looking at AUDUSD on Tuesday, this point could not be clearer, with the pair trading higher on the day despite the RBA cutting interest rates to 1.25%. Eurozone CPI, UK construction PMIs, US factory orders and a speech from the Fed Chair are the key standouts on today’s calendar. read report
Global trade tension is front and centre to start the week, with risk markets in a state of disarray, as President Trump keeps pushing forward with protectionist measures. While China has been the main storyline here, further action against Mexico late last week and now India into the new week, aren’t doing anything to help investor sentiment. read report
This week has been all about reduction in investor risk appetite. The stock market has been under constant selling pressure, with the breakdown in US-China trade talks largely attributed for the move. And yet, at this point in the cycle, with central bank and government stimulus exhausted, the global economy is vulnerable to any negative shocks. read report
The Euro has gravitated back down towards last week’s +2 year low, while the Pound hovers just above its recent multi-day low as we come into the latter portion of the week. Today's calendar focus will be on US releases in the form of trade, GDP, initial jobless claims and pending home sales. read report
Tight ranges and lack of FX volatility should not be mistaken for calm. We believe the opposite to be true and are seeing this manifest via an overheated equities market finding it increasingly difficult to ignore the realities of new downside risks to the global economy at a time when central bank resources to combat such risk are depleted. read report
Markets get back to full form on Tuesday, with the UK and US returning from the long holiday weekend. Given that two of the big ticket items out there right now are the outlooks for Brexit and US trade, the return of these two major markets is clearly of consequence. read report
Markets should be rather quiet on Monday, in light of the holiday thin trade. The UK and US are out enjoying long weekends accounting for the thinner conditions. Earlier today, China industrial profits declined, which proved to be a bit of a drag on sentiment read report
Into Friday, it’s the Swiss Franc that’s up most against the Buck since the weekly open, while the Yen and GOLD are right behind, to round out a story of clear risk off. Key standouts on today's calendar come from UK retail sales and US durable goods. read report
The market continues to buy US Dollars, though the move has been less than convincing to this point, with the Buck unable to really gain much momentum despite the rally. It seems many out there are keeping an eye on the Euro, which to this point, is still holding up above the yearly low. read report
Though we’ve seen fresh 2019 lows in Kiwi, a beaten up Pound on renewed Brexit worry and the Euro tracking just off its yearly low against the Buck, overall conditions remain quite subdued in FX, and all of these markets remain confined to familiar ranges. UK, inflation, Canada retail sales and the Fed Minutes stand out on Wednesday. read report
