Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.062 | EURUSD 1.23278 | AUDUSD 0.78024 | NZDUSD 0.72919 | USDCAD 1.26789 | USDCHF 0.87853 | GBPUSD 1.36095 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.23445 | 1.23119
USDJPY 103.249 | 102.956
GBPUSD 1.36333 | 1.35721
USDCHF 0.87934 | 0.87744
AUDUSD 0.78168 | 0.7785
NZDUSD 0.73050 | 0.72802
USDCAD 1.26827 | 1.26638
EURCHF 1.08354 | 1.0827
EURGBP 0.90763 | 0.90498
EURJPY 127.230 | 126.968
For Today
- GBP: Rising to an early Tokyo high around the 1.3635 area before falling back through to the 1.3575 area on limited selling, the market managed a slight rise to range around the 1.3600 level again through to the grey hours, offers into the 1.3650 area before stronger offers start appearing the closer the market moves to the 1.3700 area, with barely a stop loss to be seen through to those levels, a break through the 1.3715-25 area will likely gain quickly to the 1.3750 areas before starting to grind for the 1.3800 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.3550 area again with bids in the area and likely to increase through to the 1.3500 area with weak stops likely immediately behind the level and opening a deeper move.
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- JPY: Opening around the 103.00 levels the market slipped a little on the move into the Tokyo session tipping through slightly to close to the 102.95 level before Tokyo pushed through to the 103.25 area and ranged from there in the 103.10-20 area to the grey hours, bids into the 102.80 before very light weak stops appear however, bids through the 102.50 area likely to be substantial and continue appearing around the sentimental 00-20 and 80-00. Topside offers light through to the 103.40 level with some light congestion from there with offers increasing into the 103.80 level and continuing through the 104.00 area with weak stops above the 104.20 levels.
- AUD: Ranging quietly through the sessions rising initially from the 0.7785 area through into the Tokyo session testing the 0.7820 area before drifting through to the grey hours moving back to the opening levels and slightly through, Offers into the 0.7840-60 area with congested offers then continuing through to the 79 cents level and possible light options to impede the movement higher, downside bids into the 76 cents level with weak stops on a dip through the 0.7580-70 area to open the downside to the stronger 75 cents area.
- EUR: Light trading for the first hour with limited push through the 1.2340 with the move into the Tokyo session seeing a high just through that level before starting a slow drift through to the 1.2320 area initially before drifting again to test into the 1.2310 area for the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 1.2340-60 area with a little weakness above however, the market is likely to find increasing offers through the 1.2400 area with weak stops likely above the 1.2420 levels with heavy offers, downside bids light through to the 1.2200 area with limited bids in the sentimental areas before opening up only on a dip through the 1.2150 area but unlikely today.
Overnight News
GBP/EUR:
Thousands of EU domains registered to UK users, suspended after Brexit – NS3
JPY/USD:
Japan’s funds may wait for 1.3% UST Yields to boost buying – BBG
AUD:
Australia must scramble to escape China trade trap – AFR
USD:
Florida, we’re still seeing a flood of New York refugees – NYP
US Officials weigh adding Alibaba, Tencent to investment ban – BBG
Various reports of disruption in Washington DC with BBC calling it a siege and Sky “clashes with Police” However 13 arrests is what was reported and an unrelated shooting.
GBP:
PM Johnson vows to slash business rules, asking CEO’s for input – BBG
UK to look at changing rules to allow gene editing in farming – BBG
Today’s Data
AUD Building Approvals MoM (NOV) A 2.6% | C 2.5% | P 3.8%
AUD Trade Balance (NOV) A 5.022b | C 6.000b | P 7.458b
0700 EUR German Factory Orders MoM (NOV) A | C -1.2% | P 2.9%
0730 CHF Retail Sales YoY (NOV) A | P 3.1%
0830 EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI (DEC) A | P 45.6
0900 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
0930 GBP Construction PMI (DEC) A | C 55.0 | P 54.7
1000 EUR Core CPI YoY (DEC) A | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
1000 EUR CPI YoY (DEC) A | C -0.2% | P -0.3%
1000 EUR Retail Sales MoM (NOV) A | C -3.4% | P 1.5%
1230 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
1330 USD Exports A | P 182.0b
1330 USD Imports A | 245.10b
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 800k | P 787k
1330 USD Trade Balance (NOV) A | C -65.20b | R -63.10b
1330 CAD Trade Balance (NOV) A | C -3.50b | P -3.76b
1400 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (DEC) A | P 51.5
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A | C 54.6 | P 55.9
1500 CAD Ivey PMI (DEC) A | C 54.7 | P 52.7
1700 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
2330 JPY Household Spending YoY (NOV) A | C -1.5% | P 1.9%
2330 JPY Household Spending MoM (NOV) A | C -1.3% | P 2.1%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly around the 1.3630 area the market moved through to the Tokyo session before making some early gains through to the 1.3650 area and a steady selloff once the fixing demand was finished with to run through to the grey hours holding the 1.3600-10 area, London were steady buyers through to the 1.3670 area for the move into the NYK session and the USD then forging ahead and the Cable dipping in two quick moves to push lightly through the 1.3550 area a couple of times however once London left the arena the market recovered through to the 1.3615 area for the close.
- JPY: Initially drift from the opening around the 102.70 level to test through to the 102.60 into the Tokyo session, the market then reversed the losses and pushed through to range around the 102.80 level for several hours before drifting a little into the grey hours, early London started to buy and the move through to the NYK Session saw stronger USD buying moving through the market and testing in 3 waves 103.00, 103.20 and finally around the 103.45 before running out of steam as the buying dried up and fell back to hold around the 103.00 areas.
- AUD: Moving off the 0.7750 area the market pushed through to the 0.7770 area for the Tokyo session before drifting a little to make the lows at the end of the morning session testing the 0.7735 area before slowly recovering through to the grey hours, grey hours buying was steadily followed by London taking the market through to the 0.7825 level without too much damage before drifting a bit on USD buying through the early part of NYK and then finishing the day around the 78 cents level.
- EUR: Holding quietly through the early part of the session before quickly spiking above the 1.2320 area and reversing just as quickly to slowly push eventually through the 1.2280 area before starting to rise again on the approach to the grey hours, trading through into the London opening testing above the 1.2340 area and then ranging quietly around the level with minor moves towards the 1.2350 area and holding above the 1.2330, the NYK session came in as USD buyers and forced the market as low as the 1.2265 area, the London close saw some light profit taking moving in and a steady rise through to the 1.2310 area before rising quickly through to the 1.2330 area for the close.
Premiership Results
JPY Services PMI (DEC) A 47.7 | C 47.2 | P 47.8
CNY Caixin Services PMI (DEC) A 56.3 | P 57.8
EUR Spanish Services PMI (DEC) A 48.0 | C 45.0 | P 39.5
EUR German Services PMI (DEC) A 47.0 | C 47.5 | P 47.7
EUR Markit Composite PMI (DEC) A 49.1 | C 49.8 | P 49.8
EUR Services PMI (DEC) A 46.4 | C 47.3 | P 47.3
GBP Composite PMI (DEC) A 50.4 | C 50.7 | P 49.0
GBP Services PMI (DEC) A 49.4 | C 49.9 | P 47.6
EUR German CPI MoM (DEC) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P -0.8%
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (DEC) A -123k | C 88k | P 307k | R 304k
USD BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
USD Markit Composite PMI (DEC) A 55.3 | P 55.7
USD Services PMI (DEC) A 54.8 | C 55.3 | P 58.4
USD Factory Orders MoM (NOV) A 1.0% | C 0.7% | P 1.0% | R 1.3%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -8.010m | C -1.271m | P -6.065m
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Best Regards
Andy
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