Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.956 | EURUSD 1.22228 | AUDUSD 0.77658 | NZDUSD 0.7236 | USDCAD 1.26915 | USDCHF 0.88537 | GBPUSD 1.35634 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.22280 | 1.21668
USDJPY 104.219 | 103.852
GBPUSD 1.35930 | 1.34915
USDCHF 0.88900 | 0.88518
AUDUSD 0.77657 | 0.76931
NZDUSD 0.72326 | 0.71823
USDCAD 1.27631 | 1.2685
EURCHF 1.08302 | 1.08158
EURGBP 0.90193 | 0.90043
EURJPY 127.142 | 126.771
For Today
- GBP: Unchanged from Friday the market slowly slipped lower through the non-existent Japanese session breaking through to the 1.3520 before holding for a short period, a slower drift through to the 1.3500 area dipping lightly through and holding in the area through to the grey hours, Light bids around the current levels with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.3490 area with congestion likely in the area to soak up the stops, with strong bids likely to increase the closer to the 1.3440-50 area you get and then strongly congested through to the 1.3400 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.3600 area with weak stops a little thin above the level and stronger offers the closer you get to the 1.3700 area.
- JPY: Opening a little lower around the 103.90 area and then steadily lifting through to the 1.3420 area to range quietly through to the grey hours in a bank holiday session, congestion around the 104.40-60 area and then increasing into the 104.80 level with strong offers through the 105.00 area, Downside bids light through to the 103.00 level before stronger bids start to appear and increase through to the 102.50 area with very little in the way of stops on a dip through with likely increasing bids to the 102.00 areas and likely to see stronger bids continuing from importers.
- AUD: Dropping steadily through the early part of the session to test the 0.7720 for the move into a Bank Holiday Tokyo period the market continued its steady drift through to the 0.7695 area before finding some light buying moving into the session and basing around the area through into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 0.7800 area with weak stops likely to be through the 0.7820-30 areas with light offers through to the 0.7850 area before better offers appear on any move for the 79 cents level, Downside bids light through to the 0.7740 area with some light weakness before stronger bids starts to appear through to the 77 cents level with weak stops on a break through the 0.7680 level. to open up a deeper move through to the congested 76 cent level with sentimental values finding the most support.
- EUR: Unchanged the market dipped after the first hour to test the 1.2200 level and then continue with its slide through to 1.2190 and pausing for the move into the Bank Holiday Tokyo however, the fall didn’t stop and the market steadily through to the 1.2165 area ranging for the most part around the 1.2170 level to the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.2200 area and continuing lightly through to the 1.2250 area where the market starts to thicken a little on the offer and the closer the market moves to the 1.2280 area the stronger the offers, a push through the 1.2300 area will likely see stronger offers building with short term sellers likely joining the queue with weak stops on a strong push through the 1.2320-30 areas opening only to the 1.2350 areas. Downside bids getting stronger the closer the market gest to the 1.2120 area with likely stronger congestion through the area and strong stops on a push through the 1.2080 area with very limited bids to support the market through to the 1.20 handle.
Overnight News
USD/JPY:
Chip shortage forces Ford, Toyota, Nissan, FCA to cut vehicle production – NPW
USD:
Fed’s 2015 records show Yellen misjudged room for job gains – BBG
Clock ticking on part of USD bearish narrative – BBG
House prepares for Trump impeachment, could add charges on Georgia allegations – WSJ
US risks enraging China by easing limits on Taiwan relations – FT
JPY:
New mutant strain of coronavirus is discovered in Japan – DML
NZD:
NZ Reviews virus measures as more caught at border – BBG
XAU:
Gold extends biggest loss in two months on rising USD and Yields
GBP:
Ministers consider tightening lockdown rules on exercise and face masks – TEL
USD/EUR:
US Capitol siege a wake-up call for democracies, top EU diplomat says – RTRs
Today’s Data
JPY Public Holiday
AUD Retail Sales MoM (NOV) A 7.1% | C 7.0%
CNY CPI YoY (DEC) A 0.2% | C 0.1% | P -0.5%
CNY CPI MoM (DEC) A 0.7% | C 0.4% | P -0.6%
CNY PPI YoY (DEC) A -0.4% | C -0.8% | P -1.5%
1400 MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
1700 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2330 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment A | P 4.1%
2350 JPY Current Account n.s.a. (NOV) A | C 1.551t | P 2.145t
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet run through from the opening into the Tokyo session ranging around the 1.3565 area before dipping through to the low of the day testing the 1.3550 before returning to the tight range for the move into the grey hours, light buying through to the 1.3585 level before dipping for the official opening and steadily pushing off the early range through to the 1.3600 level flirting with the area through into the NYK session and a quick move through to the high of the day around the 1.3635 level before dropping back just as quickly to the 1.3550 level and the base for the day rising back to the 1.3600 before again drifting through to the base for the run to the close.
- JPY: For the most part a quiet range around the 103.90 area, opening around the 103.85 area and then holding quietly through into the Tokyo session before pushing for the first time at the 104.00 area before dipping back to the 103.80 level and the base for much of the day, a steady rise through the grey hours saw the market rising and pushing through to the 104.10 area into the London session before drifting slowly back to the 103.80 area again to hold through to the NYK opening, dipping quickly for a push through to the 103.60 area holding for a short period before making the move back through to the 104.00 area unable to match the previous highs and then ranging quietly through to the close.
- AUD: Choppy session again, opening around the 0.7765 area dropping back to the 0.7750 area on a spike in an illiquid opening and then pushing through into the Tokyo session pushing a little over the 0.7770 area, the move was short lived and the USDJPY dropped through to the 0.7740 level for the early low and spent several hours then recovering and heading into the London session pushing through to the 0.7790 area, London were sellers from just after the opening testing through to the 0.7750 area before starting a long steady run higher and a limited test towards the 76 cents with the same quick selling sending the market back to the 0.7750 area bouncing holding for the close in London and dipping quickly through to the 0.7730 level and the low of the day with a steady rise through to the 0.7765 and unchanged for the close.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2270 area and running around the level through into the Tokyo session before EURJPY sellers saw the Euro pushed through to the 1.2235 area for the early low, the recovery took too the grey hours only for the London session to step in and sell the Euro through to the 1.2215 area and a similar reaction, a slow steady rise into the NYK session quickly moving off the 1.2250 area to test the 1.2285 for the high of the day before returning to the 1.2225 area with some steady selling through to the London close to test just below the 1.2200 level before running out around the 1.2220 area.
Premiership Results
JPY Household Spending YoY (NOV) A 1.1% | C -1.5% | P 1.9%
JPY Household Spending MoM (NOV) A -1.8% | C -1.3% | P 2.1%
CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (DEC) A 3.5% | C 3.4% | P 3.3%
CHF Unemployment s.a. (DEC) A 3.4% | C 3.5% | P 3.4%
EUR German Industrial Production MoM (NOV) A 0.9% | C 0.7% | P 3.2% | R 3.4%
EUR German Trade Balance (NOV) A 16.4b | C 18.0b | P 18.2b
GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY A 6.0% | P 7.6%
GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (DEC) A 0.2% | C 0.5% | P 1.2% | R 1.0%
GBP Labour Productivity (Q3) A 3.0% | P -1.8%
EUR Unemployment Rate (NOV) A 8.3% | C 8.5% | P 8.4%
USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (DEC) A 0.8% | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (DEC) A 5.1% | C 4.4% | P 4.4%
USD NonFarm Payrolls (DEC) A -140k | C 71k | P 245k | R 336k
USD Participation Rate (DEC) A 61.5% | P 61.5%
USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (DEC) A -95k | C 98k | P 344k | R 417k
USD Unemployment Rate (DEC) A 6.7% | C 6.8% | P 6.7%
CAD Employment Change (DEC) A -62.6k | C -27.5K | P 62.1k
CAD Unemployment Rate (DEC) A 8.6% | C 8.6% | P 8.5%
USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 360 | P 351
Best Regards
Andy
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