Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.877 | EURUSD 1.20757 | AUDUSD 0.7703 | NZDUSD 0.71306 | USDCAD 1.27368 | USDCHF 0.89137 | GBPUSD 1.35854 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20864 | 1.20654
USDJPY 103.929 | 103.690
GBPUSD 1.36077 | 1.3560
USDCHF 0.89260 | 0.8901
AUDUSD 0.77109 | 0.76792
NZDUSD 0.71423 | 0.71171
USDCAD 1.27831 | 1.2728
EURCHF 1.07682 | 1.0761
EURGBP 0.88990 | 0.88831
EURJPY 125.577 | 125.156
For Today
- GBP: Early trading testing above the 1.3600 level before moving into the Tokyo session dipping to the 1.3565 area before stabilizing and running back to the 1.3590 area but eventually drifting off through to the grey hours pushing through to the 1.3560 level, Topside offers into the 1.3700 area and weak stops likely through the level and stronger stops possibly above the 1.3750 area for a quick test to the 1.3800 area and limited congestion running through to the next sentimental area. Downside bids into the 1.3550 area likely to again be strong with interest likely to be holding around the 1.3500 area for the same sort of support, a break below the level is likely to see weak stops opening the downside bids likely through to the 1.3450 sentimental level and a weak supportive area with congestion then running to the 1.3400 level.
- JPY: Opening a little lower and then squeezing through to the 103.90 area for the high of the day so far and into the Tokyo session dropping steadily through to the 103.70 area for the base for the rest of the session holding just above the level into the grey hours on a Bank Holiday US, Light offers through the 104.00 area and increasing a little through to the 104.20 area, weak stops on the move level and light congestion running through to the 104.50 area and increasing offers then through to the 104.80-105.00 level and stronger offers. Downside bids through 103.50 area where stronger bids appear a push through the level and stronger bids then into the 103.00 level and weak stops through the 102.80 areas.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7710 area and then dropping quickly off the level through to the 0.7680 area before slowly rising back to the 77 cents areas before holding for a few hours before drifting through to the grey hours to test the 0.7680 support level with weak stops likely a little lower and stronger bids through into the 0.7540-60 areas, Topside offers through to the 0.7720 area with weak stops likely through the level with very little offers through to the 0.7780 area and increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before weakness appears.
- EUR: Ranging quietly through the session around the 1.2075 area having opened unchanged around the 1.2080 area testing early to the 1.2085 level and then dipping back to the low around the 1.2065 area the base for the session into the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2050 area with increasing bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on any move through into the 1.1980 level with break out stops a possibility, Topside offers through the 1.2100 level light with the topside likely to remain weak through to the 1.2180 area before some stiffness appears through to the 1.2200 level with very little in stops until 1.2220 level and weak stops easily absorbed in stronger resistance.
Overnight News
USD:
Janet Yellen to say US does not seek weaker dollar value – Refinitiv
Biden indicates plans to cancel Keystone XL pipeline permit on first day in office – CBC
NOK:
Norway increasingly concerned about Pfizer Covid19 vaccine after fatalities rise – TWT
EUR:
The EU could throw out its landmark trade deal with China over concerns about Beijing’s human rights record – BDR
EU sets out plans to limit USD reliance, boost Euro – BBG
ECB threatens banks with capital add-ons over leveraged loan risks – FTI
Italy’s premier to plough ahead with Parliament vote, Paper say
Germany Mulls a nationwide Curfew, business insider reports – BBG
JPY:
BoJ to mull widening long-term yield band – JiJI
AUD:
Australian officials seeking information from Pfizer – ABC
Low rates inflate asset prices – RBA
USD/TWD:
Intel to increase manufacturing outsourcing to Taiwan – BBG
Today’s
USD Holiday Martin Luther King, jr, Day
CNY Fixed Asset Investment YoY (DEC) A 2.9% | C 3.2% | P 2.6%
CNY GDP QoQ Q4 A 2.6% | C 3.2% | P 2.7%
CNY GDP YoY (Q4) A 6.5% | C 6.1% | P 4.9%
CNY Chinese GDP YTD YoY (Q4) A 2.3% | P 0.7%-0,5
CNY Industrial Production YoY (DEC) A 7.3% | C 6.9%| P 7.0%
CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY Production A 2.8% | P 2.3%
CNY NBS Press Conference
JPY Industrial Production MoM (NOV) A -0.5% | P 0.0%
1000 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
1315 CAD Housing Starts (DEC) A | C 225.0k | P 246.0k
1330 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1330 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (NOV) A | P 6.92b
2100 NZD NZEIR Business Confidence (Q4) A | P -40%
2145 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A | P 0.1%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening towards the high however the early push in Tokyo to the 1.3700 area saw the level rejected and a steady descent through the day into the London session pushing through the 1.3650 level and increasing through into the NYK session with USD Buying moving through after the tone of Yellen and the return of the strong USD chatter, the market dipped through to the 1.3575 area before ranging through to the close
- JPY: A quiet range bound session with the market ranging around the 103.80 level through the Asian session where it opened before dipping into the grey hours through into London testing the 103.60 area and then recover for the move into the NYK session to hold quietly between the 103.80-90 area pushing a little into the close.
- AUD: Opening just short of the highs of the day the market eased into the Tokyo dropping from the 0.7790 area and then went into a steady decline through to the NYK session testing through the 0.7735 base area from London to dip twice through to the 0.7685 area lows before bouncing through to the 0.7725 level and a slow drift to the long weekend.
- EUR: As with most of the pairs early day’s highs created on the move into Tokyo testing towards the 1.2165 area before drifting through to the grey hours holding the 1.2135 level, London sold on the opening and the 1.2120 area and an old trend line held through into the NYK session before succumbing to the pressure and the market dipping through to the 1.2080 areas and a brief flirtation of the 1.2100 level saw the market drifting to the lows for the close.
Premiership Results
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A -0.7% | P 1.0% | R 1.6%
GBP Industrial Production MoM A -0.1% | C 0.5% | P 1.3% | R 1.1%
GBP GDP MoM A -2.6% | P 0.4%
GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (NOV) A 0.7% | C 0.9% | P 1.7% | R 1.6%
GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change A 4.1% | P 10.2%
GBP Trade Balance (NOV) A -16.01b | C -10.18b | P -12.0b | R -13.29b
GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (NOV) A -8.01b | C -1.40b | P -4.54b | R -5.82b
EUR Spanish CPI YoY (DEC) A -0.5% | C -0.5% | P -0.8%
EUR Spanish HICP YoY (DEC) A -0.6% | C -0.6% | P -0.8%
EUR ECB’s Enria Speaks
EUR Trade Balance (NOV) A 25.8b | C 26.0b | P 30.0b | R 29.6b
USD Core PPI MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD Core Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A -0.7% | C -0.1% | P -0.9% | R -1.4%
USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (JAN) A 3.50 | C 6.00 | P 4.90
USD PPI MoM (DEC) A 0.1% | C 0.4% | P 0.1%
USD Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A -0.7% | C -0.2% | P -1.1% | R -1.4%
GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker A 0.9% | P -4.8% | R 4.1%
USD Industrial Production YoY (DEC) A -3.60% | P -5.50%
USD Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A 1.6% | C 0.5% | P 0.4% | R 0.5%
USD Business Inventories MoM (NOV) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.7% | R 0.8%
USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (JAN) A 79.2 | P 74.6
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (JAN) A 73.8 | C 80 | P 80.7
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (NOV) A 0.2% | P 0.3%
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 373 | P 351
Best Regards
Andy
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