Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.692 | EURUSD 1.20792 | AUDUSD 0.76816 | NZDUSD 0.71082 | USDCAD 1.27504 | USDCHF 0.89079 | GBPUSD 1.35861 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20984 | 1.20745
USDJPY 104.079 | 103.654
GBPUSD 1.36147 | 1.35749
USDCHF 0.89116 | 0.89018
AUDUSD 0.77191 | 0.76751
NZDUSD 0.71409 | 0.71071
USDCAD 1.27556 | 1.2720
EURCHF 1.07756 | 1.07543
EURGBP 0.88962 | 0.88853
EURJPY 125.868 | 125.209
For Today
- GBP: A slow drift from the opening around the 1.3590 area through to the 1.3580 level for the move into the Tokyo session rising slowly through the opening level to slowly push through the 1.3600 level and test to the 1.3615 level before dipping a little and ranging around the 1.3600-05 area for the move to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.3700 area and weak stops likely through the level and stronger stops possibly above the 1.3750 area for a quick test to the 1.3800 area and limited congestion running through to the next sentimental area. Downside bids into the 1.3550 area likely to again be strong with interest likely to be holding around the 1.3500 area for the same sort of support, a break below the level is likely to see weak stops opening the downside bids likely through to the 1.3450 sentimental level and a weak supportive area with congestion then running to the 1.3400 level.
- JPY: A quiet start to the session holding around the 103.70 area dipping a little before moving into the Tokyo session trading steadily through in a tight channelled move through to just short of the 104.10 area in a more or less single rise before holding quietly through into the grey hours, Light offers through the 104.00 area and increasing a little through to the 104.20 area, weak stops on the move level and light congestion running through to the 104.50 area and increasing offers then through to the 104.80-105.00 level and stronger offers. Downside bids through 103.50 area where stronger bids appear a push through the level and stronger bids then into the 103.00 level and weak stops through the 102.80 areas.
- AUD: AUDJPY buying from the opening as the market chatters about the end of QE around April, whether that will be enacted however, that remains to be seen although if previous pandemics are to be believed successive waves now will be less intense as the long denied herd resistance starts to curtail the ever changing virus, the Oz opened around the 0.7680 level with a couple of dips lower before moving into the Tokyo session and starting a slow steady push through to the 0.7720 area before holding steady through to the grey hours, light bids through to the 0.7660 area where support stiffens and the bids continue with only a little weakness to the 0.7620 area with strong stops on any dip through the 0.7580 area before stronger bids again appear in the 0.7550 area. Topside offers through the 0.7750 level and then thickening as the market tests towards the 0.7780 area with weak stops on a move through the 0.7820 areas, stops may cause some problems however, congestion is likely through the 0.7850 area and increase again through the 0.7900 areas.
- EUR: Early USD sellers saw the Euro pushing from the 1.2070 area to test lightly through to the 1.2095 area and slowly ranging around the area through to the grey hours quietly. Downside bids into the 1.2050 area with increasing bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on any move through into the 1.1980 level with break out stops a possibility, Topside offers through the 1.2100 level light with the topside likely to remain weak through to the 1.2180 area before some stiffness appears through to the 1.2200 level with very little in stops until 1.2220 level and weak stops easily absorbed in stronger resistance.
Overnight News
AUD:
RBA to quit QE in April as reality crushes the bears – AFR
ANZ consumer confidence falls to 108.7 vs. 108.9
USD:
Yellen says smartest thing to do now is act big to help struggling Americans – DJ
Biden team says US will not lift travel bans, despite Trump statement – AFP
NZD:
NZIER Sees signs of momentum building in NZ economy – RTR’s
4Q Business activity improves – NZIER
CNY:
China top financial watchdog blasts state monopoly accusation – BBG
USD/CAD:
Biden’s rejection of pipeline throws wrench in Canada, US ties – AFP
Today’s Data
0700 EUR German CPI MoM (DEC) A | C 0.5% | P -0.8%
0730 CHF PPI MoM (DEC) A | P -0.1%
0930 GBP Labour Productivity (Q3) A | P -1.8%
1000 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions A | C -68.5 | P -66.5
1000 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (JAN) A | C 60.0 | P 55.0
1000 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (JAN) A | P 54.4
1330 CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM (NOV) A | C -0.1% | P 0.3%
1330 CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (NOV) A | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
1800 GBP BoE MPC Member Hadane Speaks
2100 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (NOV) A | P 51.9b
2330 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (JAN) A | P 4.1%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Pushing off the opening broadly unchanged and testing quickly above the 1.3600 level saw the market dipping into the Tokyo session to push to the 1.3575 area before holding quietly through to midsession before drifting through to the grey hours holding the 1.3570 level, before moving into the London session dipping away to the lows of the day testing the 1.3525 level before starting a slow recovery through to the London session falling just short of the opening area and ranging quietly through to the close around the 1.3585 areas.
- JPY: A limited day with the Bank Holiday in the US, opening almost unchanged holding the 103.90 area and weakly testing above the area to the 103.95 area before dropping quickly from the Tokyo opening through to the 103.70 to more or less define the range for much of the day, A slight uptick from the London opening saw the market just short of the 103.85 area and then a slow drift through to the London close before flatlining to the close around the 103.70 lows.
- AUD: Opening unchanged and moving through into the Tokyo session before quickly dropping off the 0.7710 areas to gently nudge the 0.7680 level then ranging around the 0.7690 area through to the grey hours and early sellers through into the morning session in London to test the 0.7660 area and the low for the day before slowly recovering through into the Bank Holiday NYK ranging around the 0.7680 areas.
- EUR: Patchy opening with the market then holding around the 1.2080 level and dipping like the other pairs through to the 1.2065 area before finding a base and ranging around the 1.2075 area through to the London session, a slow drift through to test lightly through the 1.2060 area before recovering to the opening levels into late Bank Holiday NYK.
Premiership Results
USD Holiday Martin Luther King, jr, Day
CNY Fixed Asset Investment YoY (DEC) A 2.9% | C 3.2% | P 2.6%
CNY GDP QoQ Q4 A 2.6% | C 3.2% | P 2.7%
CNY GDP YoY (Q4) A 6.5% | C 6.1% | P 4.9%
CNY Chinese GDP YTD YoY (Q4) A 2.3% | P 0.7%-0,5
CNY Industrial Production YoY (DEC) A 7.3% | C 6.9%| P 7.0%
CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY Production A 2.8% | P 2.3%
CNY NBS Press Conference
JPY Industrial Production MoM (NOV) A -0.5% | P 0.0%
EUR Eurogroup Meetings
CAD Housing Starts (DEC) A 228.3k | C 225.0k | P 246.0k | R 259.9k
GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (NOV) A 11.78b | P 6.92b
NZD NZEIR Business Confidence (Q4) A -6% | P -40%
NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A 3.5% | P 0.1% | R 1.4%
Best Regards
Andy
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