Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 105.37 | EURUSD 1.20489 | AUDUSD 0.76775 | NZDUSD 0.7203 | USDCAD 1.27619 | USDCHF 0.89896 | GBPUSD 1.37357 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.20552 | 1.20299

USDJPY                105.545 | 105.30

GBPUSD              1.37422 | 1.37147

USDCHF              0.90068 | 0.89849

AUDUSD              0.76813 | 0.76658

NZDUSD              0.72116 | 0.71836

USDCAD              1.27730 | 1.27538

EURCHF               1.08379 | 1.08277

EURGBP              0.87741 | 0.87632

EURJPY                127.052 | 126.892

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening slightly weaker and dipping to the 1.3720 area before rising back to the opening levels and testing lightly above the 1.2740 area into Tokyo and then drift to hold the 1.3725 area for the run into the grey hours, Topside offers increasing on a move through the 1.3760 area and into the 1.3800 area before weak stops open up through the 1.3820 area before stronger congestion through the level into the 1.3850 area before weakness starts to appear and the market opens up for a longer term move through to the 1.4100 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.3600 level and weak stops through the level before stronger sentimental bids appear into the 1.3550 areas.
  • JPY: A quiet unchanged opening saw the market holding around the 105.40 area, Tokyo opening saw the market pushing quickly through to the 105.50 area for an hours or so testing through to the 105.55 level and ranged quietly around the level to the close, Topside offers into the 106.00 area with congestion through the level with weak stops likely on a move through to the 106.20 area and then further strong congestion into 106.50 area, increasing offers through the 106.70 area and continuing into the 107.00 level with stronger offers on a further test higher into the 107.50 area. Downside bids light back through the 105.00 level with increasing bids into the 104.50 level with bids beginning to fill the market around the level and stronger bids into the 104.00-20 areas and stronger bids below the 103.60 levels.
  • AUD: Quiet range through the session opening around the 0.7670 area and slowly testing through to the 0.7680 area only to range between the two through into the grey hours, downside bids light through to the 0.7560 area and bids likely to be strong through to the 0.7550 areas and increasing on any move into the 0.7500-0.7480 area with strong stops through the level and opening stronger downside potential, topside bids light through the 0.7650 area and limited build of offers around the 77 cents level sees limited stops and the market then starting to increase resistance on any move through the 0.7750 level.
  • EUR: Opening a little lower and moving off the 1.2040 area to push through to the 1.2055 for the move into the Tokyo session then drifting through to base around the 1.2030 level and eventually returning to the opening levels in very quiet trading, Downside strong sentimental levels 1.1950 and through to the 1.1900 level with stronger bids likely until the 1.1880 breaks and weak stops appear, Topside offers into and through the 1.2080 area continuing to the 1.2120 area before weakness appears and light weak stops open the 1.2150 area for a test, from there though topside offers start to increase into the 1.2200 level and above to limit any sudden moves,

 

Overnight News

 

KRW/USD:

Hyundai, Kia say they aren’t in EV discussions with Apple

CNY:

China set to allow some stranded Australia coal to unload – BBG

 

Today’s Data

JPY         Current Account n.s.a. (DEC) A 1.166t | C 1.040t | P 1.878t

NZD       NZ National day bank holiday

0645      CHF        Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (JAN) A | C 3.4% | P 3.5%

0645      CHF        Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN) A | C 3.5% | P 3.4%

0700      EUR       German Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A | C 0.3% | P 0.9%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3670 area the market spent the day moving steadily through the 1.3700 eventually, light run into Tokyo session pushing the 1.3690 area before drifting through to the grey hours holding just below the level and running quickly through the 1.3700 area for the London opening only to drift around the figure level through into the NYK session before making a more concerted push through to the 1.3740 area and finishing the day just off those highs.
  • JPY: Choppy opening period and testing through into the Tokyo session running to the 105.65 area before dipping on the opening to run around the 105.50 area and ranging around the level through into the grey hours, early London were quiet sellers pushing through to the 105.30 area before moving quickly higher for the move into the London o0pening and testing through to just short 105.80 level before dipping and then bounce and drop again and following through to the 105.35 areas for the low of the day and finishing just above the area.
  • AUD: A slow drift from the opening highs just below the 0.7610 area, testing through to the 0.7585 area into mid-Tokyo before moving back through to the opening area for the move into the London opening testing through the 0.7625 area before drifting through into the NYK session, NYK were buyers through to the 0.7635 areas and then continued slowly rising through the session to trade through to a close just short of the 0.7680 areas.
  • EUR: A quiet range through the early part of the day into the Tokyo session slowly drifting through to the 1.1950’s before finding a base and eventually pushing slowly through to the London session to rise quickly on the opening to test the 1.1980 before ranging around the level through to the NYK session, the move into the NYK opening initially saw the 1.1990 trouble the market then quickly push through to the 1.2020 area and slowly trade through to the close in a steady rise too the 1.2050 area and the close.

 

Premiership Results

AUD       RBA Governor Lowe Speaks

JPY         Household Spending YoY (DEC) A -0.6% | C -2.4% | P 1.1%

JPY         Household Spending MoM (DEC) A 0.9% | C -1.9% | P -1.8%

AUD       RBA Monetary Policy Statement

AUD       Retails Sales MoM (DEC) A -4.1% | P -4.2%

EUR       German Factory Orders MoM (DEC) A -1.9% | C -1.0% | P 2.3% | R 2.7%

GBP        Halifax House Price Index YoY A 5.4% | P 6.0%

GBP       Halifax House Price Index MoM (JAN) A -0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

EUR       ECB’s Enria Speaks

GBP        BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks

USD       Average Hourly Earnings YoY (JAN) A 5.4% | C 5.1% | P 5.1% | R 5.4%

USD       Average Hourly Earnings MoM (JAN) A 0.2% | C 0.3% | P 0.8% | R 1.0%

USD       Nonfarm Payrolls (JAN) A 49k | C 50k | P -140k

USD       Participation rate (JAN) A 61.4% | P 61.5%

USD       Private Nonfarm Payrolls (JAN) A 6k | C 50k | P -95k | R -204k

USD       Trade Balance (DEC) A -66.60b | C -65.70b | P -68.10b | R -69.00b

USD       Unemployment Rate (JAN) A 6.3% | C 6.7% | P 6.7%

CAD       Employment Change (JAN) A -212.8k | C -47.5k | P -62.6k | R -68.2k

CAD       Trade Balance (DEC) A -1.67b | C -3.00b | P -3.34b | R -3.56b

CAD       Unemployment Rate (JAN) A 9.4% | C 8.9% | P 8.6% | R 0.2%

EUR       ECB’s De Guindos Speaks

CAD       Ivey PMI (JAN) A 48.4 | P 46.7

USD       US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 392 | P 378 | R 384

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.