Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 104.751 | EURUSD 1.21313 | AUDUSD 0.77536 | NZDUSD 0.72279 | USDCAD 1.27039 | USDCHF 0.88993 | GBPUSD 1.3817 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.21350 | 1.21188

USDJPY                104.841 | 104.738

GBPUSD              1.38202 | 1.37855

USDCHF              0.89082 | 0.88996

AUDUSD              0.77680 | 0.77357

NZDUSD              0.72351 | 0.72098

USDCAD              1.27281 | 1.26976

EURCHF               1.08101 | 1.07949

EURGBP              0.87906 | 0.87828

EURJPY                127.141 | 127.016

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A steady drift through the Tokyo session saw the market dipping away from the 1.3820 level t push through to the 1.3790 area and hold through to the grey hours in the area, Topside offers increasing through into the 1.3900 with increasing offers through any move higher weak stops likely on a break through the figure level and opening up a repeat of this week’s movements. Downside bids light through the 1.3800 level and weak stops now moved up closer to the market and the downside limited in support through to the 1.3700 areas before stronger bids appearing through and into the 1.3650 area to increase further into the 1.3600 level.
  • JPY: Opening around the 104.75 area with a tight range through into the Tokyo session unable to Push to the 104.70 level and then slowly rising as far as the 104.80’s to hold around the levels just short of the highs for the move into the grey hours, stronger bids through the 104.20-103.80 area will likely see weak stops however, strong bids are likely to appear on any test of the 103.50 area and continuing through to the 103.00 level, Topside offers light through the 105.00 level and increasing into the 105.40-60 area however, strong resistance remains in the 105.80-106.00 level with congestion likely to continue through the 106.70-107.00 areas.
  • AUD: A little USD selling with the market opening around the 0.7755 area and spiking through the 0.7760 level before holding around the 0.7755 area through into the Tokyo session, Tokyo saw steady selling through to the 0.7735 area before slowly recovering through to the 0.7745 area for the move into the grey hours in a day lacking news, Offers through the 0.7780 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through to the 0.7580 level before stops appear.

 

  • EUR: Same pattern with the Euro with the market testing the 1.2135 level early in the session before drifting through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 1.2120 area and holding close to the level in very quiet trading through to the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.

 

Overnight News

 

AUD:

Government seeks credit while cutting jobkeeper cash – AFR

Lockdown fears as Melbourne Airports holiday inn cluster grows – MEA

The RBA could increase its QE program at any time – AFR

Victoria state to enter 5-day lockdown on virus – BBG

 

Today’s Data

NZD       Business NZ PMI (JAN) A 57.5 | P 48.7

Holiday China – Spring Festival

0700      GBP        Business Investments QoQ (Q4) A | P 9.4%

0700      GBP        GDP YoY (Q4) A | C -8.1% | P -8.6%

0700      GBP        GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 0.5% | P 16.0%

0700      GBP        Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A | C 0.5% | P -0.1%

0700      GBP        Manufacturing Production MoM (DEC) A | C 0.6% | P 0.7%

0700      GBP        Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A | P 4.1%

0700      GBP        Trade Balance (DEC) A | C -15.00b | P -16.01b

0700      GBP        Trade Balance Non-EU (DEC) A | P -8.01b

0730      CHF        CPI MoM (JAN) A | P -0.1%

0800      EUR       Spanish CPI YoY (JAN) A | C 0.6% | P 0.6%

0800      EUR       Spanish HICP YoY (JAN) A | C 0.6% | P 0.6%

1330      CAD       Wholesale Sales MoM (DEC) A | C -1.5% | P 0.7%

?             GBP        NIESR GDP Estimate A | P 1.5%

1400      GBP        NIESR GDP Monthly GDP Tracker A | P 0.9%

1500      USD       FOMC Member Williams Speaks

1500      USD       Michigan Consumer Expectations (FEB) A | C 75.7 | P 74.0

1500      USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FEB) A | C 80.8 | P 79.0

1800      USD       Baker Hughes Total Oil Rig Count A | P 384

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3830 area touching the 1.3840 level early and then drifting off on the move into the Tokyo session to test the 1.3820 level holding quietly before slowly rising through to the 1.3850 level to range into the grey hours with early London selling the Cable back through to the 1.3815 areas into the official opening, bouncing off the level the market then managed to range through into the NYK session holding around the opening 1.3830 areas, light selling from the opening in NYK to slowly move through to test the 1.3800 area only to edge higher for the close.
  • JPY: A quiet Tokyo session with several areas in Asia closed, opening around the 104.60 area and holding around the level through into the grey hours with early London pushing the USDJPY from the 104.55 lows to push through the Asian highs 104.65 to test through to the 104.75 area before dipping back and holding a 10 pip range through to the close of London before running through to the 104.80 area and drifting to the close.
  • AUD: After dipping into the Tokyo session to test the 0.7715 area it steadily rose through the session stalling around the 0.7740 area and holding for a brief period before running through to the grey hours testing above the 0.7750 level before holding through into the London session around the 0.7740 area, as the market drew close to the NYK session it again started to rise pushing the 0.7770 area to hold through the NYK opening ranging slowly lower to hold around the 0.7750 area to the close.
  • EUR: Quiet run into the Tokyo session and a slow dip through to the 1.2115 area and a slow rise after a couple of hours to push into the London opening testing through 1.2130, a little uptick after a short period to test the 1.2135 area before drifting before the NYK opening, the opening saw a quick stab higher through to the 1.2150 area before drifting through to the NYK Option cut and then dipping quickly back to the 1.2120 area with a slight recovery for the close.

 

Premiership Results

NZD       Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A -0.4% | P 19.2% | R -0.6%

Holiday Japan National day

Holiday China Spring Festival

GBP        RICS House Price Balance (JAN) A 50% | C 60% | P 65% | R 63%

EUR       ECBs De Guindos Speaks

EUR       Economic Projections for the EU

USD       OPEC Monthly Report

USD       Initial Jobless Claims A 793k | C 757k | P 779k | R 812k

USD       Fed Monetary Policy Report

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.