Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 105.284 | EURUSD 1.21284 | AUDUSD 0.77809 | NZDUSD 0.72299 | USDCAD 1.26428 | USDCHF 0.89011 | GBPUSD 1.39024 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.21513 | 1.21251

USDJPY                105.632 | 105.276

GBPUSD              1.39509 | 1.39043

USDCHF              0.89017 | 0.8884

AUDUSD              0.78054 | 0.77814

NZDUSD              0.72659 | 0.72268

USDCAD              1.26421 | 1.26097

EURCHF               1.07976 | 1.07926

EURGBP              0.87234 | 0.87067

EURJPY                128.272 | 127.801

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening quietly around the 1.3910 area the market moved slowly higher through the Tokyo session to lightly push at the sentimental 1.3950 area and grinding to a halt, a slow drift from that point to head into the grey hours around the 1.3940 level. Topside offers light through 1.3950 with stronger offers likely through the 1.4000 area and option related barriers to clear with weak stops on a strong break of the 1.4000 areas, light offers into the 1.4050 areas and increasing again into the 1.4100 level and offers then thinning out for further moves through the sentimental levels, downside bids light through to the 1.3850 area with weak bids continuing through to the 1.3800 level and weak stops appearing on a dip through the level to run into stronger bids through 1.3750.
  • JPY: Choppy movement on the opening saw the market test below the 105.30 level to make the lows and above the 105.40 level before settling down for the move into the Tokyo session and a slow rise through to the 105.60 area to make the high before dipping a little through to the 105.55 area for the move too the grey hours, Topside offers around the 105.80 area and strong offers likely to continue through to the 106.20 level with weak stops likely to be just above the level opening the market to the 106.50 area and stronger offers through to the 107.00 areas. Downside bids light through to the 105.00 level and weak stops light through the 104.80 area and then stronger bids likely to appear below the 104.50 areas and continuing into the 104.00 level.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7780 area and making a steady rise through to the 0.7800 area through midsession however, unable to break the level convincingly the Oz drifted back through the figure level to hold quietly around the 0.7795 area through to the grey hours, Offers through the 0.7800 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through to the 0.7580 level before stops appear.
  • EUR: Slow move through into the Tokyo session holding around the 1.2130 area dipping a little for the lows before slowly pushing to the 1.2150 area on a stretch and then drifting back to the 1.2140 for the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.

 

 

Overnight News

 

USD:

14 States warned of possible power cuts amid extreme weather – AXS

AUD:

RBA Locked into ultra-low rates, bond purchases for the long haul – DJ

RBA on hunt for much tighter labour markets, faster wage growth – RTRs

JPY:

BoJ’s Kuroda says stock boom reflects economic optimism, defends ETF scheme – RTRs

GBP:

UK PM Cautious on lockdown easing as new hotel regime starts – AFP

CNY/USD:

China targets rare earth export curbs to hobble US defence industry – FT

 

Today’s Data

Holiday CNY Spring Festival

AUD       HIA New Home Sales MoM A -69.4% | P 91.8%

AUD       RBA Meeting Minutes

JPY         Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A -0.4% | P -0.7%

1000      EUR       German ZEW Current Conditions (FEB) A | C -67.0 | P -66.4

1000      EUR       German ZEW Economic Sentiment (FEB) A | C 59.6 | P 61.8

1000      EUR       GDP YoY (Q4) A | C -5.1% | P -5.1%

1000      EUR       GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C -0.7% | P -0.7%

1000      EUR       ZEW Economic Sentiment (FEB) A | P 58.3

1315      CAD       Housing Starts (JAN) A | P 228.3k

1330      USD       NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (FEB) A | C 6.00 | P 3.50

1330      CAD       Foreign Securities Purchases (DEC) A | P 11.78b

2000      USD       FOMC Member Daly Speaks

2100      USD       TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (DEC) A | P 149.2b

2350      JPY         Exports YoY (JAN) A | C 6.6% | P 2.0%

2350      JPY         Trade Balance (JAN) A | C -600.0b | P 749.6b

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady rise through into the Tokyo session pushing from the 1.3850 area and slowly pushed through to the 1.3900 level to hold through into the grey hours, a light drift through the grey hours before moving quickly through to the 1.3915 level into the London opening and then ranging quietly around the 1.3910 area through to the close with one minor move to the 1.3920 area before holding through to the close.
  • JPY: Opening a little higher and testing through to the 105.10 level from the 104.95 area before holding quietly through to the London session in the 105.00-10 level slow buying through the grey hours, and a steady push through to the 105.40 and the high of the day to hold quietly through to the 105.35 areas.
  • AUD: Ranging around the 0.7770 area and then slowly moving through to the 0.7780 area to range quietly in the area the move into the grey hours saw the markets median drift and the market pushed through to the 0.7770 level again but holding above the opening 0.7760 lows through to late in the session as London close saw steady buying through to the 0.7790 area before drifting to the close.
  • EUR: A quiet session with the market slowly pushing off the early lows just below the 1.2120 area to push through the opening level and a steady run through to the London session holding around the 1.2140 area with the high made early after the opening in London testing the 1.2145 area before drifting back to the opening level to range through to the close remaining in a tight range.

 

Premiership Results

JPY         GDP QoQ (Q4) A 3.0% | C 2.3% | P 5.3%

JPY         GDP YoY (Q4) A 12.7% | C 9.5% | P 22.9%

Holiday USD Presidents Day

Holiday CAD Family Day

Holiday CNY Spring Festival

JPY         Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A -1.0% | P -1.6%

EUR       Eurogroup Meetings

EUR       Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A -1.6% | C -1.0% | P 2.5% | R 2.6%

EUR       Trade Balance (DEC) A 29.2b | C 25.3b | P 25.8b | R 25.7b

CAD       Manufacturing Sales MoM (DEC) A 0.9% | C 0.6% | P -0.6% | R -0.4%

CAD       Housing Starts (JAN) A 282.4k | P 229.4k

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements  designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.