Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.048 | EURUSD 1.21046 | AUDUSD 0.77542 | NZDUSD 0.72057 | USDCAD 1.26912 | USDCHF 0.89273 | GBPUSD 1.3923 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21079 | 1.20833
USDJPY 106.221 | 105.837
GBPUSD 1.39080 | 1.38630
USDCHF 0.89396 | 0.89231
AUDUSD 0.77592 | 0.77305
NZDUSD 0.72143 | 0.71835
USDCAD 1.27179 | 1.26884
EURCHF 1.08098 | 1.07979
EURGBP 0.87189 | 0.87023
EURJPY 128.440 | 127.997
For Today
- GBP: Early selling saw the Cable dropping from the opening highs around the 1.3905 area to test through into the Tokyo session pushing the 1.3890 and then following through to test the 1.3860 area before finding buyers and a slow rise through to the 1.3890 area again for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers light through 1.3950 with stronger offers likely through the 1.4000 area and option related barriers to clear with weak stops on a strong break of the 1.4000 areas, light offers into the 1.4050 areas and increasing again into the 1.4100 level and offers then thinning out for further moves through the sentimental levels, downside bids light through to the 1.3850 area with weak bids continuing through to the 1.3800 level and weak stops appearing on a dip through the level to run into stronger bids through 1.3750.
- JPY: USDJPY saw a steady rise from the opening to test above the 106.20 level moving through into the Tokyo session holding the 106.10 area and light buying into the Tokyo fix not quiet reaching the previous highs and a slow drift through into the grey hours holding the 105.85 area, Topside offers around the 106.50 area and stronger offers through to the 107.00 areas with stronger stops through the level. Downside bids light through to the 105.00 level and weak stops light through the 104.80 area and then stronger bids likely to appear below the 104.50 areas and continuing into the 104.00 level.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7760 area and dipping quickly to the 0.7750 area before Tokyo moved in taking it to the lows, a bounce off the 0.7730 area saw a slow recovery through to hold around the 0.7750 areas through to the grey hours, Offers through the 0.7800 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through to the 0.7580 level before stops appear.
- EUR: Moving down from the opening around the 1.2110 level pushing through to range around the 1.2090 in a unimpressive move and unable to penetrate much beyond the 1.2085 level and never looking like recovering the 1.2100 area for the move through into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
USD:
Fed’s Daly says fear of unwanted inflation could cost jobs – BBG
Winter storm causes widespread delays of COVID vaccine shipments – AXS
CNY/USD/EUR:
Why rare earths are Achilles heel for US, Europe – BBG
CNY/AUD:
China-Australia relations: Chinese tariffs weighing heavy on world’s largest listed winemaker after profits plunge – SMP
Today’s Data
JPY Exports YoY (JAN) A 6.4% | C 6.6% | P 2.0%
JPY Trade Balance (JAN) A -323.9b | C -600.0b | P 749.6b
Holiday CNY Spring Festival
AUD RBA Asst Gov Kent Speaks
0700 GBP CPI MoM (JAN) A | C -0.4% | P -0.3%
0700 GBP CPI YoY (JAN) A | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
0700 GBP PPI Input MoM (JAN) A | C 0.5% | P 0.8%
0800 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
1330 USD Core PPI MoM (JAN) A | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
1330 USD Core Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | C 1.0% | P -1.4%
1330 USD PPI MoM (JAN) A | C 0.4% | P 0.3%
1330 USD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | C 1.1% | P -0.7%
1330 CAD Core CPI MoM (JAN) A | P -0.4%
1330 CAD Core CPI YoY (JAN) A | C 1.4% | P 1.5%
1330 CAD CPI MoM (JAN) A | C 0.4% | P -0.2%
1415 USD Industrial Production YoY (JAN) A | P -3.58%
1415 USD Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A | C 0.5% | P 1.6%
1500 USD Business Inventories MoM (DEC) A | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
1500 USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto A | P 1.1%
1600 GBP MPC Member Ramaden Speaks
1900 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -3.500m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Holding around the opening 1.3910 area the market steadily moved through into the Tokyo session pushing through into midsession testing the 1.3950 highs for the day before slowly drifting through into the Grey hours breaking down through the 1.3930 level to test the opening levels on the opening in London, slow rise in London trading to hold around the 1.3930 area and ranging through to the NYK session and strong selling through to the 1.3870 level bouncing off the level to recover quickly through to the 1.3940 level before settling back for the run to the close only slightly below the opening.
- JPY: A little illiquid on the opening then settling down around the 105.35 area rising slowly through to the 105.65 area for the move through to the midsession level before drifting back off for the move into the London session testing to the 105.20 area for the low of the day, a steady rise through the London session pushing through into NYK testing the 105.80 area and after a brief battle the market tested through to the 105.95 area and another few hours through to the close battling to the 106.00 level before going out.
- AUD: Early rise into the RBA minutes saw the market pushing through to test the 0.7805 area before dropping back through into the grey hours and range through the London session testing the 0.7775 area and testing back to the 78 cents levels, the move through into the NYK session saw the market dropping quickly off through to the 0.7740 area before ranging around the 0.7760 level through to the close.
- EUR: A limited range through Asia lifting from the 1.2130 area to push slowly through to the 1.2150 on a stretch before drifting through into the London session back on the opening lows, London were slow buyers pushing through the 1.2150 area eventually before touching the 1.2170 area and struggling and then USD buying on the opening in NYK and the market moved quickly through to the 1.2100 level to then range around the 1.2110 area through to the close.
Premiership Results
Holiday CNY Spring Festival
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM A -69.4% | P 91.8%
AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A -0.4% | P -0.7%
EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (FEB) A -67.2 | C -67.0 | P -66.4
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (FEB) A 71.2 | C 59.6 | P 61.8
EUR GDP YoY (Q4) A -5.0% | C -5.1% | P -5.1%
EUR GDP QoQ (Q4) A -0.6% | C -0.7% | P -0.7%
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (FEB) A 69.6 | P 58.3
USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (FEB) A 12.10 | C 6.00 | P 3.50
CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (DEC) A 5.08b | P 11.78b
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (DEC) A 121.0b | P 149.2b
Best Regards
Andy
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