Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.677 | EURUSD 1.20926 | AUDUSD 0.77691 | NZDUSD 0.72059 | USDCAD 1.26779 | USDCHF 0.89592 | GBPUSD 1.3974 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20987 | 1.20826
USDJPY 105.742 | 105.561
GBPUSD 1.39794 | 1.39515
USDCHF 0.89695 | 0.89577
AUDUSD 0.77762 | 0.77580
NZDUSD 0.72264 | 0.72046
USDCAD 1.27137 | 1.26722
EURCHF 1.08413 | 1.08354
EURGBP 0.86616 | 0.86534
EURJPY 127.856 | 127.656
For Today
- GBP: A quiet range through into the Asian session holding around the 1.3970 level with a limited couple of moves to the 1.3975 before moving through into the Tokyo session and slowly dipping through to the low 1.3950’s before recovering a little for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into and likely through the 1.4000 area with option barriers and strong sentimental offers in the area, a push through is likely to see a small squeeze higher through to the 1.4050 area before further congestion is likely to appear again building through to the 1.4100 areas, downside bids light back through the 1.3900 area with weak stops moving up towards the level and opening weakness through to the 1.3850 area before stronger bids start to appear through to the 1.3800 levels.
- JPY: A tight range through to late in the Tokyo session moving around the opening 105.70 area with minor dips to the 105.65 area and unable to move in the opposite direction to test the 105.75 level, the move to the grey hours saw the market breaking to the downside testing through the 105.60 area as the market moved into Tokyo lunch being forced lower. Topside offers around the 106.50 area and stronger offers through to the 107.00 areas with stronger stops through the level. Downside bids light through to the 105.00 level and weak stops light through the 104.80 area and then stronger bids likely to appear below the 104.50 areas and continuing into the 104.00 level.
- AUD: A quiet session with the market opening around the 0.7770 area and holding close to the level through into the Tokyo session making the high into the Tokyo fix testing to the 0.7775 area before drifting through to the 0.7760 level before returning to the opening area for the move into the grey hours, Offers through the 0.7800 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through to the 0.7580 level before stops appear.
- EUR: Similar pattern for the Euro with a quiet run into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 1.2090 area testing towards the 1.2100 level but unable to push through the area and drifting off to just above the 1.2080 area and returning slowly to the 1.2090 areas for the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
EUR/CNY:
European Union unveils new trade policy, warns of measures to blunt negative spill overs from China – SMP
EUR:
Locked down German economy likely subdued in coming weeks – RTRs
AUD/USD/INR/CNY:
China warns of economic backlash if Quad targets a specific country – AFR
Today’s Data
NZD PPI Input QoQ (Q4) A 0.0% | P 0.6%
JPY National Core CPI YoY (JAN) A -0.6% | C -0.7% | P -1.0%
AUD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A 0.6% | C -4.2% | P -4.2%
JPY Services PMI (FEB) A 45.8 | P 46.1
0700 GBP Core Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | C -2.6% | P 0.4%
0700 GBP Core Retail Sales YoY (JAN) A | C 2.2% | P 6.4%
0700 GBP Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | C -2.5% | P 0.3%
0700 GBP Retail Sales YoY (JAN) A | C -1.3% | P 2.9%
0700 EUR German PPI MoM (JAN) A | C 0.8% | P 0.8%
0830 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | C 56.5 | P 57.1
0830 EUR German Services PMI (FEB) A | C 46.5 | P 46.7
0900 EUR Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | C 54.3 | P 54.8
0900 EUR Markit Composite PMI (FEB) A | C 48.0 | P 47.8
0900 EUR Services PMI (FEB) A | C 45.9 | P 45.4
0930 GBP Composite PMI A | P 41.2
0930 GBP Manufacturing PMI A | P 54.1
0930 GBP Services PMI A | P 39.5
1100 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (FEB) A | C -35 | P -38
1330 CAD Core Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A | C -2.0% | P 2.1%
1330 CAD Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A | C -2.5% | P 1.3%
1445 USD Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | C 58.5 | P 59.2
1445 USD Markit Composite PMI (FEB) A | P 58.7
1445 USD Services PMI (FEB) A | C 57.6 | P 58.3
1500 USD Existing Home Sales (JAN) A | C 6.61m | P 6.76m
1500 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (JAN) A | C -1.5% | P 0.7%
? USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
1600 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Oil Total Rig Count A | P 392
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Moving through into the Tokyo session pushing from the 1.3865 area trading through to the 1.3875 level, drifting through the Asian session testing through to the 1.3850 level ranging around the level into the grey hours testing to the low around the 1.3840 level and steady strong buying through to the 1.3915 area and a slower rise testing the 1.3925 level into early morning in London, a rise to the 1.3950 level holding briefly before starting another slow climb to test the 1.3985 level as Main stream media seem to have suddenly become supportive of Brexit all of a sudden however, truth be told the markets move above the 1.3900 level was always likely to push this far without any stronger interference, NYK took the market lower before steadying around the 1.3950 through to the London close and a slow move towards the highs again for the close.
- JPY: A very limited day with the market opening around the 105.90 area before moving into the Tokyo session and dropping through quickly to the 105.70 area before steadily recovering through the balance of the session into the grey hours, London sold through to the 105.70 level again and ranged through the session with a final dip into the NYK opening to test the 105.60 level and a recovery through to the 105.90 area, slow drift to the close.
- AUD: Rising through into the Tokyo Fix testing above the 0.7770 area before dipping back into midsession to hold the opening 0.7750 through to the grey hours, London saw steady buying and a push through the 0.7780 area and a quiet range into the NYK session and a quick run to the 0.7790 high of the day before dropping quickly back and running into the low just above the 0.7730 area before slowly rising to the 0.7770 area for the close.
- EUR: A quiet range through the Asian session saw the market rising slowly through to the 1.2050 area before slowly drifting back to the 1.2035 opening levels, the move through the grey hours saw the market rising a little into the London session to push to the 1.2050 area again and quickly testing the 1.2070 area once through, the rise in Cable saw the Euro playing catchup and the move into the NYK session saw the push above the 1.2080 level before dipping back away from the resistance dipping through to the 1.2060 area for a slower fresh rise through to the close and the highs just above the 1.2080’s
Premiership Results
AUD Employment Change (JAN) A 29.1k | C 40.0k | P 50.0k
AUD Full Employment Change (JAN) A 39.0k | P 35.7k
AUD Unemployment Rate (JAN) A 6.4% | P 6.5% | P 6.6%
EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
GBP BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks
EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
USD Building Permits MoM (JAN) A 10.4% | P 4.2%
USD Building Permits (JAN) A 1.881m | C 1.678m | P 1.704m
USD Export Price Index MoM (JAN) A 2.5% | C 0.7% | P 1.1% | R 1.3%
USD Housing Starts (JAN) A 1.580m | 1.658m | P 1.669m | R 1.680m
USD Housing Starts MoM (JAN) A -6.0% | P 5.8% | R 8.2%
USD Import Price Index MoM (JAN) A 1.4% | C 1.0% | P 0.9% | R 1.0%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 861k | C 765k | P 793k | R 848k
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (FEB) A 23.1 | C 20.0 | P 26.5
USD Philly Fed Employment (FEB) A 25.3 | P 22.5
CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (JAN) A 0.7% | P 0.3%
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -7.258m | C -2.429m | P -6.644m
EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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