Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.426 | EURUSD 1.21177 | AUDUSD 0.78684 | NZDUSD 0.72976 | USDCAD 1.26175| USDCHF 0.89655 | GBPUSD 1.40051 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21348 | 1.21128
USDJPY 105.737 | 105.379
GBPUSD 1.40529 | 1.4007
USDCHF 0.89803 | 0.89615
AUDUSD 0.79083 | 0.78679
NZDUSD 0.73377 | 0.72916
USDCAD 1.26177 | 1.25806
EURCHF 1.08876 | 1.08570
EURGBP 0.86550 | 0.86353
EURJPY 128.129 | 127.745
For Today
- GBP: Opening a touch higher the market dipped to fill the gap testing through the 1.4010 area before heading into the Tokyo session to push steadily through into early Tokyo testing above the 1.4050 level failing the area the market dropped off a touch quicker to test to the 1.4010 then holding through to the grey hours around the 1.4020 area, Topside light offers through to the 1.4100 level with weak offers likely to continue through the level with stops likely on a push beyond the 1.4110 area with any congestion limited to the sentimental levels, with 1.4150 area and stronger into 1.4200, downside bids light through the 1.4000 level and then weak stops light opening to the 1.3950 area for stronger bids from there to the 1.3900 level.
- JPY: Dipping to the 105.45 area from the opening then steadily rising from the opening in Tokyo to push through the 105.70 in light trading to hold around the 105.65 area to the grey hours, Topside offers around the 106.50 area and stronger offers through to the 107.00 areas with stronger stops through the level. Downside bids light through to the 105.00 level and weak stops light through the 104.80 area and then stronger bids likely to appear below the 104.50 areas and continuing into the 104.00 level.
- AUD: A touch stronger on the opening then closing the gap for the move into the Tokyo session to test steadily through to the 0.7905 area before drifting back through the session to hold around the 0.7875-80 area to the grey hours in a very quiet session, light weak stops on a push through the 0.7920 level with limited offers through to the 0.7950 level before stronger offers kick in with possible option barriers into the strong sentimental 80 cents level and strong stops on a move through to likely challenge the 0.8050 level quickly, downside bids light through the 79 cents level with weak stops opening a chance of a deeper run as people are squeezed with better bids likely on any move into the 0.7800 areas.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2120 level and ranging around the level, pushing slowly higher through the Tokyo opening to test the 1.2135 area before drifting back to hold around the 1.2120 area with a minor dip towards the 1.2110 areas, Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
USD:
Fed sounds alarm on Commercial real estate, business Bankruptcy – BBG
Texas officials launch inquiry into skyrocketing energy bills after winter storm – AXS
America’s vaccine rollout has been among the best in the world – AXS
Bipartisanship ends this week with stimulus vote – AXS
USD/CNY:
US-China tech war: Calls for Biden to fund US semiconductors grow louder in Washington – SMP
A Biden official says that China needs to disclose more about the origins of the Virus, and that the WHO needs to dig – NYT
CNY/USD:
China Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks on US ties in Beijing
Wang Yi: We have no intention to challenge or replace US – BBG
Wang Yi: Urge US to stop smearing CPC and political system
Wang Yi: Ask Biden admin to bring China policy back to reason – BBG
Wang Yi: Previous US administration inflicted damage to bilateral ties – BBG
INR/CNY:
India and China hold fresh round of border talks after smooth completion of pullback from Pangong Tso – SMP
OPEC:
Saudis, Russia differ again on Oil strategy before OPEC+ Meeting – BBG
NZD:
NZ upgraded to AA+ by S&P, outlook stable – BBG
LME:
Copper surges above $9000 as major deficit drives record rally – BBG
Today’s Data
0900 EUR German Business Expectations (FEB) A | C 91.8 | P 91.1
0900 EUR German Current Assessment (FEB) A | C 89.0 | P 89.2
0900 EUR German ifo Business Climate Index (FEB) A | C 90.5 | P 90.1
1430 EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
2030 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
2145 NZD Retail Sales QoQ (Q4) A | P 28.0%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3970 area and holding in a tight range through into the Tokyo session before drifting off through into the 1.3950 areas holding through into midsession before starting a slow rise through into the grey hours pushing the 1.3985 area and ranging through into the London session before making a further move through to the 1.4000 level, range through to the NYK opening with the market struggling into the 1.4005 area and holding tightly around the figure before breaking through to the 1.4035 level for the high of the day, the run to the close saw a slow steady tight drift through to the close holding above the 1.4000 level.
- JPY: A quiet session holding around the 105.70 level through to midsession in Tokyo before dipping back to the 105.60 area for the move into the grey hours, dipping away through to the 105.30 areas to range through to the NYK session dipping lightly through into the 105.25 area the market rallied on the opening in NYK to push up through the 105.60 area before drifting after a tight range to the 105.40 area.
- AUD: A quiet range through to the grey hours before moving from the open 0.7765 area to push steadily through on a tight range into the NYK session testing to the 0.7850 level for a tight range through NYK extending the highs to just above the 0.7870 for the close.
- EUR: A limited range through the Asian session saw the market dipping through into midsession in Tokyo testing the 1.2080 area before moving into the grey hours recovering and pushing through to the London session rising quickly from the 1.2090 area to push the 1.2145 area for the high of the day before dropping back below the 1.2120 level for the close.
Premiership Results
NZD PPI Input QoQ (Q4) A 0.0% | P 0.6%
JPY National Core CPI YoY (JAN) A -0.6% | C -0.7% | P -1.0%
AUD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A 0.6% | C -4.2% | P -4.2%
JPY Services PMI (FEB) A 45.8 | P 46.1
GBP Core Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A -8.8% | C -2.6% | P 0.4%
GBP Core Retail Sales YoY (JAN) A -3.8% | C 2.2% | P 6.4% | R 6.7%
GBP Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A -8.2% | C -2.5% | P 0.3% | R 0.4%
GBP Retail Sales YoY (JAN) A -5.9% | C -1.3% | P 2.9% | R 3.1%
EUR German PPI MoM (JAN) A 1.4% | C 0.8% | P 0.8%
EUR German Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 60.6 | C 56.5 | P 57.1
EUR German Services PMI (FEB) A 45.9 | C 46.5 | P 46.7
EUR Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 57.7 | C 54.3 | P 54.8
EUR Markit Composite PMI (FEB) A 48.1 | C 48.0 | P 47.8
EUR Services PMI (FEB) A 44.7 | C 45.9 | P 45.4
GBP Composite PMI A 49.8 | P 41.2
GBP Manufacturing PMI A 54.9 | P 54.1
GBP Services PMI A 49.7 | P 39.5
GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (FEB) A -24 | C -35 | P -38
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A -4.1% | C -2.0% | P 2.1% | R 2.9%
CAD Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A -3.4% | C -2.5% | P 1.3% | R 1.8%
USD Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 58.5 | C 58.5 | P 59.2
USD Markit Composite PMI (FEB) A 58.8 | P 58.7
USD Services PMI (FEB) A 58.9 | C 57.6 | P 58.3
USD Existing Home Sales (JAN) A 6.69m | C 6.61m | P 6.76m | R 6.65m
USD Existing Home Sales MoM (JAN) A 0.6% | C -1.5% | P 0.7% | R 0.9%
USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
USD US Baker Hughes Oil Total Rig Count A 397 | P 392 | R 397
Best Regards
Andy
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