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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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25 June 2026
Bitcoin’s strongest signal may have come on its weakest day
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Digital volumes saw a nice jump on Wednesday. Total notional volume came in at $328 million, 25% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $179 million, 29% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $64 million, 30% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,162 and average position size for ether at $1,037.

Volatility is consolidating off multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,207 and $81 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

The latest price action in crypto may feel discouraging at first glance, but beneath the surface it continues to reinforce what is becoming an increasingly compelling medium and longer-term investment case.

Bitcoin briefly broke below its previous yearly low before attracting another wave of strong buying around the $59,000 area, ultimately recovering back above $61,000 into the close. For a market that has already endured a correction of more than 50% from its late-2025 record high, yet continues to benefit from growing adoption and a fundamentally scarce monetary design, these repeated signs of demand on weakness are difficult to ignore.

From a technical perspective, Wednesday’s reversal has strengthened the possibility that bitcoin is carving out a major double bottom on the daily chart.

A move back above Wednesday’s high near $63,200 would reinforce that view and likely draw broader market attention to the neckline around $67,300, defined by the 15 June high. A confirmed break above that level would project a measured move toward the $80,000 area, fundamentally changing the technical landscape and bringing both the psychologically important $100,000 level and a retest of the record high back into focus. Ethereum continues to mirror bitcoin’s price action and would likely participate aggressively should a broader bullish reversal gather momentum.

Beyond price, the structural backdrop continues to improve. Momentum is building around efforts to provide greater regulatory clarity in the United States, with renewed focus on advancing the Clarity Act later this year, while the broader investment case for blockchain infrastructure continues to strengthen as digital assets become increasingly embedded within the global financial system.

We also view the magnitude of the correction as constructive. After such a severe repricing, crypto is becoming less dependent on equity market performance, with valuations across bitcoin, Ethereum and many digital assets now looking increasingly attractive on their own merits. As traditional equity valuations remain extended, the case for capital rotating into what many view as the architecture for the future of money and finance only becomes more compelling.

For today’s session, attention shifts squarely to the US PCE inflation report, which has the potential to shape broader risk sentiment across global markets.

A softer-than-expected reading would likely support crypto through lower Treasury yields, a weaker US dollar and improving expectations around the Federal Reserve policy outlook, while also encouraging investors to rotate back into oversold risk assets. Conversely, a hotter inflation print could generate some near-term downside pressure.

However, given the scale of the correction already seen across digital assets, we believe negative macro surprises are likely to have a more limited impact than earlier in the cycle, while positive surprises now have considerably greater potential to fuel a meaningful recovery.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,207
ETHUSD
$81
Tweets Social media

@BitcoinMagazine
More than 50% of BTC is underwater, which usually marks a bear market bottom.

@TheBlockCo
Kalshi in talks to raise funds at $40 billion valuation.

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