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30 August 2023 Crypto assets score major victory |
| LMAX Digital performance |
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LMAX Digital volumes rocketed higher on Tuesday, pushing well above 30-day average volumes. Total notional volume for Tuesday came in at $438 million, 133% above 30-day average volume. Bitcoin volume printed $270 million on Tuesday, 151% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $130 million, 149% above 30-day average volume. Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,619 and average position size for ether at $2,679. Volatility is holding up after recovering from cycle lows earlier this month. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $731 and $48 respectively. |
| Latest industry news |
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In our recent analysis, we warned tight trading conditions would not persist, and that a breakout was imminent. On Tuesday, this is exactly how things played out, with crypto assets exploding to the topside. Fundamentally, the biggest holdup in the space has been all things that hang in the balance. The market has been waiting for more clarity from the courts and the SEC to get a better handle on where we’re headed. On Tuesday, some of these questions were answered. So what happened? The SEC had initially rejected Grayscale’s application to convert its over-the-counter Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a listed Bitcoin ETF. Grayscale took this SEC decision to the courts. And on Tuesday, after a long battle, the US Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Grayscale. The ruling is a big victory for the crypto space as it likely paves the way for a bitcoin ETF to finally enter the market and for the conversion of existing trusts into ETF products. The ruling is even more impressive when considering the court’s language in which it said the SEC acted in an “arbitrary and capricious” manner when denying Grayscale’s proposal. The reason all of this is so significant is that it takes us one step closer to mass institutional adoption of crypto, something that will open the door to sizable demand for crypto assets and in turn inspire across the board price appreciation. Of course, we’re not there yet and it’s important to recognize the court ruling does not automatically translate to the SEC approval of a bitcoin ETF. The SEC could now look for another reason to deny an ETF, appeal the court decision, or even revoke existing approvals of futures ETFs to justify the denial of spot ETF applications. It would be hard to see things playing out this way, with the most prudent course of action for the SEC to finally go ahead and approve the spot ETFs. But at the same time, there has been a clear political battle going on and the possibility for more headwinds must be considered. Ultimately, we are optimistic and continue to look for more victories for crypto assets over the coming months. The next deadline is for the SEC decision on the BlackRock ETF application. The deadline is this Saturday, which means we could get an approval ahead of that date. This would open more upside on the back of the approval of an ETF at a reputable institution in the traditional financial markets arena. But the SEC could just as easily postpone the decision as it has done many times in the past. |
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Price performance last 30 days avg. vs USD (%) |
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Total volumes last 30 days ($bn) |
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BTCUSD volumes last 30 days ($bn) |
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BTCUSD avg. trade size last 30 days ($k) |
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ETHUSD avg. trade size last 30 days ($k) |
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