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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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4 February 2026
From risk asset to refuge?
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Digital volumes were healthy on Tuesday. Total notional volume came in at $518 million, 57% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $293 million, 57% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $111 million, 45% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,173 and average position size for ether at $1,872.

Volatility is finally trending higher after weeks of decline. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $3,360 and $171 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

Crypto found no support from US equities on Tuesday, with the sharp selloff in stocks triggering a renewed acceleration lower across digital assets. That said, our technical work shows bitcoin has now entered a critical support zone, with meaningful demand expected toward the $70k area.

While it’s likely too early to declare all-clear, the combination of oversold indicators and a fear-and-greed index deep in extreme fear suggests we’re getting closer to a more meaningful bottom. Beyond price action, fundamentals across the crypto space remain constructive, and near-term direction still hinges largely on whether equities can stabilize.

Looking further out, we continue to see significant scope for bitcoin to assert itself in a market that has yet to fully appreciate its value proposition—particularly in environments of sustained equity weakness. For now, many participants still treat bitcoin as an emerging risk asset, leaving it vulnerable during risk-off phases.

But it’s worth remembering that bitcoin has only existed in the post–financial crisis era, a period defined by extraordinary support for investors. We believe its true role has yet to fully emerge and is more likely to become evident during a prolonged period of stress in traditional markets.

Initially, bitcoin would likely feel pressure alongside broader risk assets, but we would also expect demand to build well ahead of any equity market bottom, driven by its appeal as a store of value and potential flight-to-safety asset.

Finally, it will be important to watch for signs of rotation from gold into bitcoin in the months ahead, as portfolio managers sitting on sizable gold gains may look to rebalance toward what increasingly appears to be a compelling relative-value opportunity, with bitcoin still more than 40% below its October 2025 highs.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$3,360
ETHUSD
$171
Tweets Social media

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Y Combinator now allows funded startups to receive their $500K funding in stablecoins.

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Patrick McHenry predicts there will be a market structure bill before Memorial Day.

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