LMAX Digital volumes came in on the lighter side overall in Wednesday trade. Total notional volume for Wednesday came in at $694 million, 6% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $441 million on Wednesday, 8% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $167 million, 26% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $9,428 and average position size for ether at $4,780.

Market volatility is consolidating off peak levels from Mid-March. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $3,642 and $216 respectively.

At the moment, the setbacks we’ve seen in the price of bitcoin are still viewed as setbacks within a bullish consolidation. This keeps the focus on a near-term bounce and push back towards a retest and break of the recent record high.

The key level to pay attention to is $59k. This is the consolidation low and a drop below this level would negate the bullish consolidation outlook, opening a deeper setback towards more significant previous resistance turned support in the $49k area.

But on the whole, even if we do see a deeper correction, we don’t believe setbacks will spend much time below $49k and at that point, the market will start to put in that next meaningful higher low ahead of a bullish continuation.

Fundamentally, it’s feeling like a lot of the downside has been mostly priced in. We’re already seeing what looks like selling of the fact on the halving event, before the event has actually happened.

And as far as downside from the global macro goes, this also feels like it’s been mostly priced in. After all, the US rates outlook has been dramatically repriced to just two cuts (from more than 6 at the start of 2024), leaving little room to price much more of a hawkish adjustment.

And so, as far as that goes, this suggests the balance of risk tilting back towards the next big move being one which sees US Dollar outflows, rather than inflows.

If this happens, the broad based Dollar selling would then offer up some support to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as well, as yield differentials move back out of the Dollar’s favor.