Total notional volume at LMAX Digital turned up overall in the previous week. Total notional volume from last Monday through Friday came in at $2.42 billion, 7.5% higher than the week earlier.

Breaking it down per coin, Bitcoin volume came in at $1.5 billion in the previous week, up 19% from a week earlier. Ether volume came in at $638 million, 12% lower from the week earlier.

Total notional volume over the past 30 days comes in at $12.26 billion.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,467 and average position size for ether at $2,455.

Volatility is still struggling to show signs of picking back up. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $949 and $108 respectively.

A run of broad based US Dollar strength on the combination of a more worrying global growth outlook and monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks has resulted in more downside pressure in crypto assets. Bitcoin and ether are now at risk for direct retests and breaks of their respective yearly lows.

Technically speaking, we’ve highlighted the possibility of bitcoin trading down into the $10k area should we see a break below the current yearly low. The analysis shows the market having been in a consolidation range of roughly $7,600 over the past several weeks. And given how markets like to move in measured moves, should we see a break below the yearly low at $17,600, this would open a measured move downside target $7,600 lower, which comes in at $10k.

Interestingly enough, when looking at previous cycle drawdowns, there is indeed evidence to suggest that the price of bitcoin could fall further. When looking at the bitcoin bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2020, we had seen drawdowns closer to 80% off the all-time-high. At the moment, we’ve seen a drawdown of some 75%.

But there continues to be positive developments in the space despite price. Russia may start accepting bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as payment for international trade in 2023, a Bitcoin and Lightning Network infrastructure provider is testing a Bitcoin payment solution for the Central Bank of Bahrain, the Ethereum Merge went off smoothly, the CME Group announced the launch of options on ether futures, and institutional adoptions continues to ramp up.