LMAX Digital volumes have been impressive all week. Tuesday volume was the highest since November 2022 and this was followed up with another solid showing on Wednesday.

Total notional volume for Wednesday came in at $1.1 billion, 102% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $927 million on Wednesday, 142% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $116 million, 1% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $12,780 and average position size for ether at $3,481.

Volatility is trending higher overall in recent months, with bitcoin volatility trading back to yearly high levels from March ahead of this latest minor pullback. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,294 and $77 respectively.

Seasonality trends for December have been leaning in bitcoin’s favor. On the one side, since 2000, December has been the worst month of performance for the US Dollar. And on the other, December is the third best performing month for bitcoin.

So it’s definitely possible seasonality is once again playing into December price action. Of course, the fundamentals have been there as well.

The bitcoin market is readying for a 2024 year that is expected to deliver bitcoin spot ETFs and a year in which we will see another bitcoin halving event.

Bitcoin spot ETFs translate to institutional and mainstream adoption, while the halving event is a design with bitcoin’s economics that forces upwards pressure on the price.

And as far as the US Dollar outlook goes right now, the market pricing peak rates and a path to Fed rate cuts has translated to these US Dollar outflows we’ve been seeing into the end of the year.

If the US Dollar is heading lower against currencies because of this, it stands to reason that bitcoin, another currency, will also benefit from the shift in yield differentials out of the US Dollar’s favor.

Technically speaking, we’ve outlined a clear path for bitcoin to continue to extend this end of year run up through $50k. At the same time, daily studies are extended.

What this means is we could first see a minor correction over the course of a few days, before the market looks to finally push through the 50k barrier. Any setbacks into a correction should be very well supported above $37k.