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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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19 March 2026
Stress test for a forming bottom
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Digital volumes were softer on Wednesday. Total notional volume came in at $257 million, 13% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $126 million, 14% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $81 million, 6% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,184 and average position size for ether at $2,488.

Volatility has been rather subdued in recent days. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,931 and $123 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

The crypto market has come under pressure over the past 24 hours, with bitcoin and ethereum correcting lower in what appears to be a broader risk-off move rather than a crypto-specific deterioration.

Price action has closely tracked developments in traditional markets, particularly in the aftermath of the latest Fed decision, where higher US yields and a stronger dollar weighed on risk assets globally.

Escalating geopolitical tensions have further reinforced defensive positioning, with flows favoring the USD at the expense of equities, gold, and crypto alike.

That said, we would characterize the latest pullback as a healthy consolidation within what increasingly looks like a developing recovery phase.

Despite the setback, there is growing evidence that the market has already carved out a medium-term base, and dips should now be viewed through the lens of higher low formation.

Importantly, over the past 30 days, bitcoin and ethereum remain the only major assets in positive territory versus the US Dollar when compared with FX, gold, and leading US equity indices, underscoring underlying resilience.

From a flows perspective, part of the weakness can be attributed to shorter-term participants taking profit into the recent rally, reflecting lingering skepticism around whether a durable bottom is fully in place.

However, this type of behavior is typical in the early stages of a trend reversal, where markets undergo stress tests before establishing stronger directional conviction. In this context, the current pullback may ultimately serve to reinforce the foundation of a broader uptrend.

On the fundamentals side, the backdrop remains constructive. Continued progress on the regulatory front, including this week’s SEC-related developments suggesting a wider portion of the crypto ecosystem may fall outside securities classification, has helped improve sentiment.

At the same time, ongoing institutional engagement and adoption trends continue to support the longer-term investment case for both bitcoin and ethereum.

Technically, we see scope for bitcoin setbacks to be well supported ahead of the $68k level, with the broader bias favoring continuation higher.

A renewed push above recent highs at $76,030 for bitcoin and $3,290 for ethereum will confirm the bullish momentum and open the door for a more meaningful upside extension.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,931
ETHUSD
$123
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