Total notional volume from last Monday to Friday came in at $3.7 billion, 214% higher than the previous week.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $3 billion, 419% higher than the previous week. Ether volume came in at $297 million, 28% higher than the week earlier.

Total notional volume over the past 30 days comes in at $10 billion.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,916 and average position size for ether at $1,115.

Volatility is showing signs of wanting to bottom out off multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,195 and $78 respectively.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market continue to navigate what increasingly looks like the latter stages of another cyclical bear market. One of the defining characteristics of Bitcoin’s history has been that each major drawdown has proven less severe than the one before it, with declines of 93%, 87%, 84% and 77% all eventually giving way to fresh record highs.

While history never repeats perfectly, it does tend to rhyme, and the latest pullback appears to be following that same longer-term pattern of diminishing downside as the asset class matures.

The current drawdown of roughly 54% from the all-time high already represents a meaningful improvement on the previous cycle’s 77% decline. Importantly, this comes against the backdrop of a market that has evolved considerably since the last bear market.

Spot ETF ownership has introduced a new class of long-term institutional investors, corporate treasury allocations continue to expand, and a structurally tighter supply profile following successive halvings has fundamentally altered the balance between available supply and long-term demand. If Bitcoin has indeed entered a more institutional era, there is a credible argument that this cycle ultimately proves materially shallower than those that came before it.

Even if the market has not yet established its ultimate cycle low, history suggests we are likely much closer to the bottom than the top. Previous bear markets have consistently rewarded investors willing to accumulate during periods of maximum pessimism rather than waiting for confirmation after prices have already begun to recover.

While volatility should remain expected, the risk-reward profile appears increasingly attractive as the market moves deeper into what has historically been the accumulation phase of the cycle.

Ethereum continues to trade in lockstep with broader crypto sentiment but remains well positioned should market conditions improve. Institutional adoption continues to broaden through tokenization initiatives, stablecoin growth and increasing use of Ethereum’s infrastructure by traditional financial institutions, while staking continues to remove a meaningful portion of supply from circulation.

Historically, Ethereum has tended to outperform Bitcoin once confidence returns and the market transitions from capital preservation back toward risk-taking.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic developments remain an important swing factor. Markets continue to monitor the outlook for US monetary policy, inflation and global growth, with any shift toward easier financial conditions likely to support both traditional risk assets and cryptocurrencies.

At the same time, geopolitical risks and any deterioration in broader market sentiment could still generate periods of short-term volatility. Nevertheless, the longer-term cyclical backdrop appears increasingly constructive, with the focus gradually shifting from trying to identify the exact bottom toward positioning for the next sustained advance to fresh all-time highs.