LMAX Digital volumes got off to a slow start this week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $265 million, 22% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $140 million, 35% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $51 million, 2% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,797 and average position size for ether at $1,154.

Volatility has recovered off multi-month lows and is showing signs of wanting to turn up. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,147 and $78 respectively.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate after enduring another deep cyclical correction, with price action increasingly resembling the type of prolonged basing process that has marked major lows in previous cycles.

While near-term macro headwinds remain, including a more hawkish Federal Reserve and elevated real yields, the broader backdrop continues to point toward a market that is steadily maturing. Importantly, the latest drawdown has now exceeded 50% from the 2025 record high, placing it firmly within the range that has historically produced attractive longer-term entry opportunities.

One of the defining characteristics of Bitcoin’s evolution has been the steady moderation in the severity of its bear markets. Each successive cycle has seen a smaller percentage decline from peak to trough as institutional participation, deeper liquidity and a growing long-term investor base have gradually reduced the extreme volatility that once defined the asset class.

That trend suggests the current correction is increasingly consistent with the formation of another major cyclical low rather than the beginning of a more structural deterioration.

Ethereum arguably presents an even more compelling case. After suffering peak-to-trough declines of roughly 94% during the 2018 bear market and 82% through the 2022 cycle, the current correction has been closer to 70%.

While Ethereum remains inherently more volatile than Bitcoin, the same pattern of progressively shallower drawdowns appears to be emerging as the network matures and institutional adoption continues to broaden. At the same time, ETH is on course to post three consecutive quarters of negative performance for the first time in its history, an exceptionally rare stretch of sustained weakness that suggests downside sentiment has become increasingly exhausted and the balance of risk may now be skewed toward recovery rather than further capitulation.

From a macro perspective, crypto continues to take its cues from traditional markets. Investors are balancing a hawkish Fed against easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, improving risk sentiment and a recovery across global equity markets.

While higher interest rates can remain a headwind in the short term, a stabilization in macro conditions alongside continued institutional adoption, expanding ETF participation and strengthening on-chain fundamentals should provide a supportive backdrop once the current corrective phase finally runs its course.

Taken together, the technical, historical and macro evidence continues to build a constructive medium-term picture. Neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum can rule out additional volatility in the weeks ahead, but the combination of progressively smaller cycle drawdowns, emerging double-bottom formations and historically stretched positioning increasingly supports the view that the market is in the process of establishing another important long-term low rather than entering a new structural bear market.