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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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21 January 2026
Trapped in the grip of macro volatility
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Digital volumes improved from Monday’s already healthy levels. Total notional volume for Tuesday came in at $381 million, 52% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $202 million, 45% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $76 million, 37% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,375 and average position size for ether at $1,454.

Bitcoin and ETH volatility is show signs of bottoming out after trending lower for several weeks. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,450 and $121 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

The crypto market has remained under pressure over the past 24 hours, trading lower alongside broader weakness across global risk assets.

Price action reflects a cautious macro backdrop, with volatility elevated across equities, rates and FX markets. Risk appetite has deteriorated as investors respond to a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions and tightening global financial conditions.

A key macro driver has been the growing stress emanating from Japan, where sharp moves in government bond yields have triggered volatility across global fixed income markets. The selloff in long-dated JGBs has raised concerns around financial stability and liquidity, prompting a broader de-risking across asset classes.

These developments have added to an already fragile macro environment, where fears of contagion and cross-border capital repatriation have pressured risk-sensitive assets. Crypto has not been immune, particularly given its growing integration into global portfolio allocation frameworks.

Within crypto, ETH has been underperforming relative to bitcoin, with the ETHBTC ratio extending its decline this week. This divergence highlights the market’s bifurcated view of digital assets, with bitcoin increasingly viewed as the defensive anchor within the sector.

ETH, by contrast, is trading more like a growth asset, with greater sensitivity to liquidity conditions and risk sentiment. As global macro volatility rises, positioning has rotated away from higher-beta crypto exposure and back toward bitcoin as the preferred proxy.

From a technical perspective, bitcoin’s pullback remains corrective rather than trend-breaking. The asset has fallen back into a familiar consolidation range and remains comfortably above its November lows, preserving the broader medium-term uptrend structure.

Momentum indicators point to near-term consolidation, but the longer-term technical picture remains constructive. Structural adoption trends and institutional engagement continue to provide an underlying bid on medium-term horizons.

At the same time, longer-term policy and adoption narratives remain intact. Senior US officials have recently reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to crypto leadership and the development of a strategic bitcoin reserve.

These signals continue to reinforce the institutionalization story for digital assets, even as near-term price action remains dominated by global macro risk dynamics rather than crypto-specific fundamentals.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,450
ETHUSD
$121
Tweets Social media

@TheBlock__
Treasury Secretary reaffirms Trump’s push for US crypto leadership and strategic bitcoin reserve.

@CryptoBizzle
Prediction market monthly volumes on pace for sixth consecutive all-time high.

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