17 September 2024
Waiting on the next big breakout
LMAX Digital performance

LMAX Digital volumes were mixed as the week got going. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $255 million, 12% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $101 million on Monday, 43% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $109 million, 55% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,525 and average position size for ether at $2,456.

Market volatility has cooled off dramatically in recent weeks. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,186 and $115 respectively.

Bitcoin volatility is the lowest since early July, while ETH volatility is trading back down at yearly low levels.

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Price action in crypto markets remains quite choppy. Ultimately, it comes down to a bitcoin market confined to some very tight consolidation, waiting for that next big range break.

Technically speaking, that breakout should be to the topside with the market trading within a clearly defined longer-term uptrend.

Interestingly enough, all of the macro fundamentals are quite supportive despite the recent choppy trade.

Investors are welcoming the prospect of a larger, more investor friendly Fed rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting, and yield differentials have moved out of the US Dollar’s favor as a consequence.

Meanwhile, crypto flows have also been looking up. Crypto flows turned net positive last week, led by over $400 million of inflows into the bitcoin spot ETFs.

And while ETH ETFs continued to see some outflows, there has been a clear decline in the pace of those outflows, with just under $13 million in ETH ETF outflows last week.

We still believe we are in a post ETH ETF adjustment period in which the market has yet to get into a real groove, which means a lot of the outflows we have seen had been well telegraphed given a similar pattern that had been seen post bitcoin ETF launches.

Looking ahead, a lot of the focus will be around positioning into tomorrow’s highly anticipated Fed event risk.

LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,186
ETHUSD
$115
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