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23 January 2024 What’s behind the price decline? |
| LMAX Digital performance |
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LMAX Digital volumes trended back up towards 30-day average volume on Monday after suffering a dip in the previous week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $750 million, 5% below 30-day average volume. Bitcoin volume printed $574 million on Monday, 5% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $115 million, right on par with 30-day average volume. Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $15,277 and average position size for ether at $3,742. Volatility has cooled off from multi-month highs in recent sessions. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,762 and $106 respectively. |
| Latest industry news |
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The crypto market has come under added pressure in the early week. We see a number of drivers behind the price action, all of which should be short-term in nature. The first and most obvious driver behind the weakness comes from the selling post the bitcoin spot ETF approvals. We’ve highlighted the fact that we’ve expected a period of lull between the approvals and the next wave of mass adoption. The second driver of weakness is coming from selling pressure from traders unwinding GBTC positions, and additional selling pressure as the FTX bankruptcy estate is forced to offload bitcoin. A third driver of price action could be coming from macro flows. If we look at US Dollar performance over the past 30 days, the Buck is up pretty much across the board. Yield differentials have moved back towards the Buck, which could also be weighing a little on crypto. Finally, we cite technical developments as a final driver of weakness. Monday’s critical breakdown in bitcoin below $40k has opened the door for the possibility of a deeper correction, which could take us as far as back down towards previous resistance in the $32k area. However, if we do see setbacks extend this far, we believe this should be the extent of the pullback before the market once again looks to find its legs and turn back up for the next major upside extension and bullish continuation beyond $50k and towards a retest of the record high. |
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Price performance last 30 days avg. vs USD (%) |
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Total volumes last 30 days ($bn) |
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BTCUSD volumes last 30 days ($bn) |
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BTCUSD avg. trade size last 30 days ($k) |
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ETHUSD avg. trade size last 30 days ($k) |
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@TheBlock__ |
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@CoinDesk |
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