Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Â
NYK Close
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33205
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.60257
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.076
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9037
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04189
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82541
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99058
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20383
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83114
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.331
Harry Hindsight
Mixed day for the Euro’s with no change on the PMI Euro’s attempted to rally during the early part on London again failing towards the 1.3385 level but having made the move sellers took advantage of the resistance and moved in swiftly, the move lower was a lot quicker than the move up trading down to 1.3280 level before finding some support we then moved into a generally quiet period as Euro’s regained some of its losses but never quiet recovered to the opening levels. Cable managed to dodge the movements of Euro’s for the most part moving quickly up during the London opening touching above 1.6060 for the first time this year before drifting back however, it didn’t retrace as far as the Euro and held up around the 1.6000 level on the back of an unexpected PMI number and a revision on the previous. EURGBP declined to the 0.8310 mark. AUD continued to decline with nothing expected on the RBA announcement moving down below 1.0400 again but finding support 1.0360 level with USD figures doing very little to excite the AUD found itself back in focus for the risk takers moving back above 1.0400 to finish towards unchanged. USDJPY you’d have thought with that Tankan result the JPY would have found itself being sold across the board but even during Asia JPY was starting to be bought by retail types out of Japan, this seemed to continue thought out the session before finding a base line around 82.20/10 level where we went out from the 83.20 highs.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual                   Consensus                         Previous              Revised Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1Â Â Â
-4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â
5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUD    Building Approvals M/M Feb    Â
-7.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10%
CHF     Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Feb      Â
0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â SVME-PMI Mar
51.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 49.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 49Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
47.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 47.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 47.7Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing MarÂ
52.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 50.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 51.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 51.5
EUR    Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb      Â
10.80% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 10.80% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 10.70%
USD    Construction Spending M/M Feb          Â
-1.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10%Â
USDÂ Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing MarÂ
53.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 53.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 52.4Â Â Â Â Â
USD    ISM Prices Paid Mar    Â
61Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 62.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 61.5Â Â Â Â Â
For today
JPY
Topside: 82.40-60 (light offers), 83.40-90 (light staggered offers)
Downside: 81.75-95 (2-eay interest, medium stop sell bias), 81.50-70 (more 2-way interest, medium bidding bias), 81.20-40 (light bids)
EUR
Topside: 1.3360-90 (light offers), 1.3405-25 (medium stop buyers), 1.3450-80 (good 2-way interest, light stop bias)
Downside: 1.3240-70 (light bids), 1.3200-20 (light stops), 1.3150-80 (light 2-way interest)
EURJPY
Topside: 110.05-25 (light offers), 110.80-111.00 (light offers), 111.60-80 (light stops)
Downside: 109.05-25 (light stop sellers), 108.70-90 (light stops), 108.00-20 (light bids)AUD
Topside: 1.0450-70 (light stops), 1.0485-1.0505 (medium offers), 1.0520-50 (light staggered offers)
Downside: 1.0345-65 (light stop sell zone), 1.0290-1.0310 (good 2-way, light stop sell bias)
AUD:
Australia CB leaves rates steady
Australian February Retail Sales +0.2% Vs +0.2% Consensus
JPY:
Japan Public Pension Fund To Tap Reserves For Y8.8T – Nikkei
Econ Min Furukawa: Hope BOJ To Take Appropriate Steps To Realize 1% Inflation Goal
Japan Azumi: hope for progress on IMF funding by April 20
JPY/KRW: Japan OKs 1-Year Extension Of Sanctions Against N. Korea -Kyodo
CNY:
China revised official services PMI shows healthy growth
China PBOC Zhou: Still A Risk Global Economy Could Go Back Into Recession
CNY: China PBOC Zhou: US Should Take Responsible Approach To Monetary Easing
China Pension Fund Chief: Yuan Exchange Rate Has Reached Appropriate Level
NZD:
NZ Finance Minister: 2012 Budget Won’t Include Extra Money For New Spending
Euro’s found itself in a strange position today, with everyone waiting for the RBA decision it moved gradually higher moving in tandem with the AUD peaking at 1.3355 before staying in a tight range awaiting the number, once the no change came AUD moved quickly lower and the Euro moved off from those highs into the mid 30’s and started to look weak for the session. Cable remained fairly calm touching 1.6020 in the first hour before rising into the 40’s the fall back in AUD and Euro was hardly noticeable in cable and it remained close to its highs for the session on quiet trading. AUD, the risk always seemed to be to the downside either they cut or did nothing, everyone was expecting nothing yet the market seemed fairly well bid going into the session and traded up to the high 1.0440’s twice before the announcement, once the announcement was made the market dropped quickly to the 1.0400 area before stabilising and finding a little support the fact that there is a wait and see tends to lean towards further easing likely. USDJPY, seemed to be settling in for a quiet session, that was before rumours of decent sized stop losses ran there course and they were quickly taken out below 82.00 running the market to the 81.60 area before support was found and it then spent the rest of the session quietly moving up to recover some of the losses to the 81.90 level.
Actual                   Consensus                         Previous              Revised Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Mar
-0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11.30%
CNY    China Non-manufacturing PMI Mar        Â
58Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 48.4Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y FebÂ
0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.90%
AUD    Retail Sales M/M Feb  Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â
AUD    RBA Rate Decision                  Â
4.25%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.25%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.25%
Today’s data
Consensus                           Previous Â
8:30     GBP    PMI Construction Mar              Â
53.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 54.3Â Â Â Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone PPI M/M Feb            Â
0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb             Â
3.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.70%Â Â
14:00   USD    Factory Orders Feb                 Â
1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.00%Â
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â FOMC MinutesÂ
23:01   GBP    BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar            Â
1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20%Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
Bid         Offer    High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.953Â Â 81.970Â Â 82.239Â Â 81.55
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33333 1.33347 1.3356Â Â 1.3313
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.270 109.305 109.559 108.7
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04010 1.04030 1.047Â Â Â Â 1.0395
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82370 0.82390 0.8265Â Â 0.8229
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98920 0.98930 0.9908Â Â 0.9893
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20391 1.20419 1.2042Â Â 1.20365
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90283 0.90308 0.9045Â Â 0.90133
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.60350 1.60370 1.6048Â Â 1.6021
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83145 0.83160 0.83225 0.8311
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25080 1.25110 1.2535Â Â 1.2505
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.78530 8.79150 8.7915Â Â 8.7855
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.56010 7.56400 7.564Â Â Â Â 7.56
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