Daily FX rambles

Andy Harrison

Good morning,


NYK Close

EUR                        1.33205

GBP                       1.60257

JPY                         82.076

CHF                        0.9037

AUD                       1.04189

NZD                       0.82541

CAD                       0.99058

EURCHF                1.20383

EURGBP               0.83114

EURJPY                 109.331

Harry Hindsight

Mixed day for the Euro’s with no change on the PMI Euro’s attempted to rally during the early part on London again failing towards the 1.3385 level but having made the move sellers took advantage of the resistance and moved in swiftly, the move lower was a lot quicker than the move up trading down to 1.3280 level before finding some support we then moved into a generally quiet period as Euro’s regained some of its losses but never quiet recovered to the opening levels. Cable managed to dodge the movements of Euro’s for the most part moving quickly up during the London opening touching above 1.6060 for the first time this year before drifting back however, it didn’t retrace as far as the Euro and held up around the 1.6000 level on the back of an unexpected PMI number and a revision on the previous. EURGBP declined to the 0.8310 mark. AUD continued to decline with nothing expected on the RBA announcement moving down below 1.0400 again but finding support 1.0360 level with USD figures doing very little to excite the AUD found itself back in focus for the risk takers moving back above 1.0400 to finish towards unchanged. USDJPY you’d have thought with that Tankan result the JPY would have found itself being sold across the board but even during Asia JPY was starting to be bought by retail types out of Japan, this seemed to continue thought out the session before finding a base line around 82.20/10 level where we went out from the 83.20 highs.

Friday’s premiership results

Actual                   Consensus                          Previous              Revised  

JPY      Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1   

-4                     -1                                 -4        

JPY      Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1      

5                      5                                  4         

AUD     Building Approvals M/M Feb     

-7.80%              0.50%                           0.90%               1.10%

CHF      Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Feb       

0.80%               3.20%                           4.40%               4.70%


51.1                  49.5                              49        

EUR     Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar F       

47.7                  47.7                              47.7     

GBP     PMI Manufacturing Mar 

52.1                  50.7                              51.2                  51.5

EUR     Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb       

10.80%             10.80%                         10.70%

USD     Construction Spending M/M Feb           

-1.10%              0.70%                           -0.10% 

USD     ISM Manufacturing Mar 

53.4                  53.1                              52.4     

USD     ISM Prices Paid Mar     

61                     62.3                              61.5     

For today

Topside: 82.40-60 (light offers), 83.40-90 (light staggered offers)
Downside: 81.75-95 (2-eay interest, medium stop sell bias), 81.50-70 (more 2-way interest, medium bidding bias), 81.20-40 (light bids)

Topside: 1.3360-90 (light offers), 1.3405-25 (medium stop buyers), 1.3450-80 (good 2-way interest, light stop bias)
Downside: 1.3240-70 (light bids), 1.3200-20 (light stops), 1.3150-80 (light 2-way interest)

Topside: 110.05-25 (light offers), 110.80-111.00 (light offers), 111.60-80 (light stops)
Downside: 109.05-25 (light stop sellers), 108.70-90 (light stops), 108.00-20 (light bids)AUD
Topside: 1.0450-70 (light stops), 1.0485-1.0505 (medium offers), 1.0520-50 (light staggered offers)
Downside: 1.0345-65 (light stop sell zone), 1.0290-1.0310 (good 2-way, light stop sell bias)


Australia CB leaves rates steady

Australian February Retail Sales +0.2% Vs +0.2% Consensus


Japan Public Pension Fund To Tap Reserves For Y8.8T – Nikkei

Econ Min Furukawa: Hope BOJ To Take Appropriate Steps To Realize 1% Inflation Goal

Japan Azumi: hope for progress on IMF funding by April 20

JPY/KRW: Japan OKs 1-Year Extension Of Sanctions Against N. Korea -Kyodo


China revised official services PMI shows healthy growth

China PBOC Zhou: Still A Risk Global Economy Could Go Back Into Recession

CNY: China PBOC Zhou: US Should Take Responsible Approach To Monetary Easing

China Pension Fund Chief: Yuan Exchange Rate Has Reached Appropriate Level


NZ Finance Minister: 2012 Budget Won’t Include Extra Money For New Spending

Euro’s found itself in a strange position today, with  everyone waiting for the RBA decision it moved gradually higher moving in tandem with the AUD peaking at 1.3355 before staying in a tight range awaiting the number, once the no change came AUD moved quickly lower and the Euro moved off from those highs into the mid 30’s and started to look weak for the session. Cable remained fairly calm touching 1.6020 in the first hour before rising into the 40’s the fall back in AUD and Euro was hardly noticeable in cable and it remained close to its highs for the session on quiet trading. AUD, the risk always seemed to be to the downside either they cut or did nothing, everyone was expecting nothing yet the market seemed fairly well bid going into the session and traded up to the high 1.0440’s twice before the announcement, once the announcement was made the market dropped quickly to the 1.0400 area before stabilising and finding a little support the fact that there is a wait and see tends to lean towards further easing likely. USDJPY, seemed to be settling in for a quiet session, that was before rumours of decent sized stop losses ran there course and they were quickly taken out below 82.00 running the market to the 81.60 area before support was found and it then spent the rest of the session quietly moving up to recover some of the losses to the 81.90 level.

Actual                   Consensus                          Previous              Revised  

JPY      Monetary Base Y/Y Mar

-0.20%                                                  11.30%

CNY     China Non-manufacturing PMI Mar         

58                                                         48.4     

JPY      Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Feb 

0.70%               0.10%                           0.00%               -0.90%

AUD     Retail Sales M/M Feb   

0.20%               0.20%                           0.30%  

AUD     RBA Rate Decision                   

4.25%               4.25%                           4.25%

Today’s data

Consensus                           Previous  

8:30      GBP     PMI Construction Mar               

53.4                              54.3     

9:00      EUR     Eurozone PPI M/M Feb             

0.50%                           0.70%  

9:00      EUR     Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb              

3.50%                           3.70%  

14:00    USD     Factory Orders Feb                  

1.50%                           -1.00% 

18:00    USD     FOMC Minutes 

23:01    GBP     BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar             

1.50%                           1.20%  

Ranges as of 6am London time

Bid          Offer     High       Low

USD/JPY               81.953   81.970   82.239   81.55

EUR/USD             1.33333 1.33347 1.3356   1.3313

EUR/JPY               109.270 109.305 109.559 108.7

AUD/USD            1.04010 1.04030 1.047     1.0395

NZD/USD             0.82370 0.82390 0.8265   0.8229

USD/CAD             0.98920 0.98930 0.9908   0.9893

EUR/CHF              1.20391 1.20419 1.2042   1.20365

USD/CHF             0.90283 0.90308 0.9045   0.90133

GBP/USD             1.60350 1.60370 1.6048   1.6021

EUR/GBP             0.83145 0.83160 0.83225 0.8311

USD/SGD             1.25080 1.25110 1.2535   1.2505

EUR/SEK              8.78530 8.79150 8.7915   8.7855

EUR/NOK            7.56010 7.56400 7.564     7.56

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