Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Weekend News
JPY/CNY:
Japan, China to ‘Consult Closely’ on Support for IMF, Azumi Says
KRW:
N. Korea Is Assembling Rocket, May Launch April 14, Chosun Says
KRW/JPY/CNY:
S. Korea, Japan, China Voice Concern Over N. Korea Rocket Plan
JPY:
Japan Approves Criteria for Nuclear Plant Restarts, Yomiuri Says
EUR:
Spain Will Manage Without External Help, De Guindos Tells FAZ
Spain to Reform Health Care, Education, De Guindos Tells FAZ
Greek Statistician Under Scrutiny for Budget Estimates Before Euro Crisis
USD:
Romney Turns Weak Jobs Report Into Fresh Attack on Obama Record
AUD:
Swan Says Australian Budget Surplus Goal Is Correct Strategy
Australian Pension System Favours Wealthy, Architect Tells Herald
GBP:
U.K. Retailers Upbeat on Olympics, Jubilee Boost, Times Reports
U.K. Home Prices to Reach Pre-Recession Levels in ’16, CEBR Says
U.K. Business Start-ups’ by Pensioners Surge, Independent Reports
Â
NYK Close
                               Syd open            Nyk close
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3085/05Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3088
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5865/85Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5885
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8240/50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8239
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.40/50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.56
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.60/70Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.75
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9165/75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9170
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2005/15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2001
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0295/05Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0310
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8180/95Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8205
Harry Hindsight
Couple of things on the bank holiday, first off question about SNB’s credibility as the 1.2000 mark was approached again with sporadic trading towards the end of the session, it didn’t trade to 1.2000 with bids in front holding it up, however some suggest that the bids being seen are not what would be construed as breath taking. Â The next was the poor NFPR number at 120k however, there was a revision for last month and the numbers in manufacturing grew while services dropped, seen in better light because of this. Euro’s was quietly trading in a 1.3050/75 range for the first part of the session, NFP put a quick spurt on moving it above the 1.3100 briefly before dropping back the range then moved to 1.3075/1.3100 range for the end of the session as the bank holiday clicked in. Cable traded 1.5880/1.5895 all day, as the UK basked in the liquid sunshine. AUD was a law unto itself with it moving around over the session trading down on the NFP for some reason before moving back to 1.0300 area for the session before moving 20 tics lower on the close. USDJPY had the move of the day on thin markets the NFP moved the market from the 82.50 level down to 81.30 before settling down to a range around the 81.60 level for the remaining part of the session.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Leading Index Feb PÂ Â Â Â
96.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 95.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 94.4Â Â Â Â Â
USD    Change in Non-farm Payrolls Mar         Â
120KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 210KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 227KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 240K
USD    Unemployment Rate Mar          Â
8.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.30%Â Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 81.70-82.00 (light buy stops) 82.20-82.50 (light buy stops) 82.60-82.90 (medium offers) 83.00-83.50 (decent offers)
Downside : 81.00-81.30 (light sell stops) 80.70-81.00 (medium bids) 80.20-80.50 (light bids) 79.80-80.10 (medium bids)Â
EURUSD
Topside : 1.3100-1.3150 (light offers) 1.3170-1.3200 (light offers)Â
Downside : 1.3000-1.3030 (light bids) 1.2970-1.3000 (medium sell stops) 1.2920-1.2950 (medium sell stops)Â
EURJPY
Topside : nothing much to mention this morning.
Downside : 106.20-106.50 (medium sell stops) 105.80-106.10 (light bids)Â AUDUSD
Topside : 1.0300-1.0350 (light buy stops) 1.0370-1.0400 (light offers)Â
Downside : 1.0220-1.0250 (light sell stops) 1.0180-1.0210 (mixed net light sell stops)Â
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
23:50   JPY     Current Account (JPY) Feb      Â
1.178TÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.66TÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.12T
01:30   CNY    PPI Y/Y Mar    Â
-0.3%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%
01:30   CNY    CPI Y/Y Mar    Â
3.6%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.20%
Obviously a very quiet day with Euro’s and AUD dropping slightly on the back of the CNY numbers with a slight rise in the CPI number we saw both pairs dropping Euro’s moving lower to test through the 1.3050 level that has been the sticking point however, technically it don’t count. AUD traded about 30 tics lower falling just below 1.0260 for a brief while but recovering close to its start point. Cable moved down 30 tics with the Euro’s bottoming out just below 1.5840. Â USDJPY traded down to below 81.25 before recovering finding bids from importers willing to pay above 81.00 and reset hedge positions, exporters were not seeing playing which seems unusual.
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
14:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â BOC Business Outlook Survey
                      Â
23:01Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance MarÂ
-12%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -13%
Ranges as of 6am London time
                              Bid         Offer     High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.408Â Â 81.417Â Â 81.58Â Â Â Â 81.19
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30661 1.30677 1.3105Â Â 1.3033
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.369 106.393 106.85Â Â 106.173
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02850 1.02870 1.03Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0257
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81740 0.81780 0.8194Â Â 0.8153
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99650 0.99670 0.9985Â Â 0.9945
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20121 1.20158 1.2019Â Â 1.20091
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91927 0.91949 0.9214Â Â 0.91651
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.58680 1.58710 1.5898Â Â 1.5836
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82325 0.82350 0.8244Â Â 0.82305
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26050 1.26060 1.2638Â Â 1.2603
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.84600 8.85000 8.8505Â Â 8.8378
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.59250 7.59990 7.603Â Â Â Â 7.5825
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Regards
Andy Harrison
Night Risk Manager
Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594
[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com
LMAX, Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London W11 4AN
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