Daily FX Rambles

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

USDJPY 79.857 | EURUSD 1.28245 | EURJPY 102.411 | AUDUSD 0.99583 | NZDUSD 0.7784 | USDCAD 1.00359 | EURCHF 1.20116 | USDCHF 0.93653 | GBPUSD 1.60914 | EURGBP 0.79699 

 

Harry Hindsight

As the Greek tragedy continues, the fall in Euro’s moved into a new stage, moving firmly down from the 1.2900 where it initially held last week to make 3month lows struggling at 1.2830 during the NYK session one supposes the IP numbers for Eurozone didn’t help however, there seemed to be some protection of the 1.2800 level holding the market and although we had an attempt into the close it failed to move much beyond the 1.2818 level. GBP the story of the day here was safe haven movements and in particular EUR/GBP selling which was being sold throughout the day but accelerated once the NYK session came in moving down through the 80.00 level before hitting support around the 0.7965 level, Cable held above 1.6050 during the Asian/London session but surged strongly during the early part of NYK trading above the 1.6100 level topping out at 1.6120before slipping slowly back below the figure on the close as Euro’s came under extreme pressure. With Euro’s moving lower and uncertainty in Europe adding to the Chinese concerns and an expected dovish RBA minutes AUD was always going to remain under pressure and as soon as London settled down they pushed it through the parity level triggering stops on the way for an initial low in the mid 0.9960’s, having broken down the market paused with one brief attempt at regaining parity before giving up and moving into the close with a new low below 0.9960. USDJPY was steady throughout the day with the biggest move seen just before the NYK opening again safe haven movement seems to be the suspect but with Exporters sitting on the bid below 80.00 and Importers on the offers above one can expect moves to be contained in tight ranges with this particulars day 79.68/80.17 larger than other days but still nothing special to note.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus=C | Previous=P | Revised=R 

NZD     Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q1 A -1.50% | C -0.40% | P 2.20% | R 1.80%

JPY      Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Y/Y Apr A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P 0.60% | R 0.50%

AUD     Home Loans Mar A 0.30% | C -1.70% | P -2.50%

CHF      Combined PPI M/M Apr A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%   

CHF      Combined PPI Y/Y Apr A -2.30% | C -2.00% | P -2.00%  

EUR     Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar A -0.30% | C 0.60% | P 0.50% | R 0.80%           

For today

JPY
Topside: 80.20-30 (light offers), 80.45-65 (light stops), 80.80-81.20 (light offers)
Downside: 79.55-65 (light-medium bids), 79.20-40 (medium stop zone), 78.80-79.10 (light bids)

EUR
Topside: 1.2850-75 (light offers), 1.2875-95 (light-medium stop buyers), 1.2920-40 (light offers)
Downside: 1.2795-1.2815 (light stop sellers), 1.2770-90 (medium stop loss zone), 1.2745-65 (light bids)

EURJPY
Topside: 102.85-103.05 (light stops), 103.50-70 (light stop buyers), 104.25-45 (light 2-way interest)
Downside: 101.90-102.10 (light 2-way interest), 101.45-65 (light-medium stops), 101.15-35 (medium bids) AUD
Topside: 1.0010-30 (light stop buyers), 1.0080-1.0110 (light-medium stop buy zone)
Downside: 0.9920-40 (light stop sellers), then bit of a gap till 0.9800-30 (medium bids)

Euro’s remained in a fairly tight range with a couple of attempts to move down through 1.2800 being absorbed by barriers and or support towards the 1.2810/15 area, one suspects barriers as each attempt lower has been defended from 20/25 downwards, with sellers above the 1.2830 level it could be the same buyers selling averaging to improve their defence, even so one suspects the defence could be short lived. GBP remained in a tight range just below the 1.6100 peaking a couple of times above but no near resistance levels one suspects for the moment Euro’s is dominating it’s movement. AUD early Euro selling dominated the AUD moving in line we saw AUD initially hold its closing level before the RBA minutes were released focusing on weaker growth over the past 4 months and continuing expected weak growth and low inflation, but all in all not really telling us anything we didn’t already know and indicating the usual watch and wait. AUD moved down to trade below 0.9950 for the first time this year, with Moody’s downgraded Italian banks outlooks negative seemed to have more effect on the AUD than the Euro, or maybe it was just an opportune moment to push the AUD through 0.9950, whichever, the above news does indeed put pressure on the Australian banking system adding to funding pressure. USDJPY if you though yesterday’s movements were tight then 79.82/92 more or less covers it a tic or two either side for the full range but generally it’s been a 6 tic market 82/88. Dullsville.JP

 

Today’s data

Consensus = C                              Previous  = P

05:00    JPY      Consumer Confidence Household Apr C 40.9 | P 40.3    

05:30    EUR     French GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.00% | P 0.20%       

06:00    EUR     German GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.10% | P -0.20%    

08:30    GBP     Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Mar C -8.400B | P -8.772B  

09:00    EUR     Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) C -0.20% | P -0.30% 

09:00    EUR     German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) May C 19.4 | P 23.4 

09:00    EUR     German ZEW (Current Situation) May C 38 | P 40.7         

09:00    EUR     Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) May C 11.7 | P 13.1         

12:30    USD     CPI M/M Apr C 0.10% | P 0.30%           

12:30    USD     CPI Y/Y Apr C 2.30% | P 2.70%

12:30    USD     CPI Core M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.20%   

12:30    USD     CPI Core Y/Y Apr C 2.30% | P 2.30%    

12:30    USD     Empire State Manufacturing May C 8 | P 6.56    

12:30    USD     Advance Retail Sales Apr C 0.20% | P 0.80%     

12:30    USD     Retail Sales Less Autos Apr C 0.20% | P 0.80% 

13:00    USD     Net Long-term TIC Flows Mar C $19.4B | P $10.1B         

14:00    USD     Business Inventories Mar C 0.50% | P 0.60%     

14:00    USD     NAHB Housing Market Index May C 26 | P 25     

Ranges as of 6am London time

                             High | Low

USD/JPY             79.94 |   79.814

EUR/USD             1.2838 | 1.2814

EUR/JPY             102.588 | 102.248

AUD/USD             0.9986 | 0.9945

NZD/USD             0.7779 | 0.7752

USD/CAD             1.0039 | 1.002

EUR/CHF             1.20136 | 1.20095

USD/CHF             0.9372 | 0.9357

GBP/USD            1.6103 | 1.6087

EUR/GBP            0.7975 | 0.7965


Good luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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