Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 78.949 | EURUSD 1.26862 | EURJPY 100.155 | AUDUSD 1.01899 | NZDUSD 0.79766 | USDCAD 1.01791 | EURCHF 1.20096 | USDCHF 0.94667 | GBPUSD 1.5724 | EURGBP 0.80674 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Asia recovered some of the previous day’s losses however, it was only slight in a very quiet market moving from just above 1.2570 to around the 1.2610 mark early Europeans sold into it but UK figures helped to drag the Euro along that is till the Spanish auction where we saw an offering of the 12mth of 3b, the auction went well with 3.39b being taken up but then it would be at 5.074%, one supposes that is safe for the moment, this however, set the 10yr to a new high of 7.28% which the market did not like, moving to the day’s lows just below 1.2570 also not helped by the ZEW survey, indications that the Germans may be willing for a closer fiscal union seemed to fly in the face of their resent stance however, time will tell on that, the market began to rally from then onwards peaking just above 1.2720 where we ran into willing sellers, moving it down into the close below 1.2700. While G20 said nothing it seems that France had a lot to say over what they would say, as above I think Germany will have more to say about that over the coming days.
·        GBP: Another quiet session in Asia for the cable moving from the opening area 1.5660 to above 1.5680 and holding steady for the session, with good CPI and RPI figures hitting the cable made a move lower touching 1.5620 before EUR rumours started to kick in dragging the Sterling higher moving it up towards the 1.5760 area highs for the day.
·        JPY: A very quiet day right across the board with a range of 78.84-79.13, moving down from the highs slowly through Asia trading on the lows during London and finally ranging during NYK. Dull doesn’t quiet say it.
·        AUD: A steady rise for the Oz over the day with nothing of note data wise it traded slightly high during Asia but was taken for a ride during London moving from the 1.0115 area to eventually tip 1.0200 a couple of times during NYK.
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Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 2.80% | C 3.00% | P 3.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y May A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.10%Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M May A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y May A 3.10% | C 3.30% | P 3.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Jun A -16.9 | C 2.5 | P 10.8Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Jun A 33.2 | C 39 | P 44.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Jun A -20.1 | C -5.7 | P -2.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Apr A 1.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.40%Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts May A 708K | C 720K | P 717KÂ Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits May A 780K | C 730K | P 715KÂ Â
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For today
USDJPY
Topside: 79.10-79.40 (medium buy stops) 79.50-79.80 (light buy stops) 79.90-80.20 (light offers)
Downside: 78.60-78.90 (medium bids) 78.20-78.50 (light bids) 77.80-78.10 (medium bids)Â
77.40-77.70 (decent bids)
EURUSD
Topside: 1.2700-1.2730 (light offers) Â 1.2780-1.2810 (light offers)
Downside: 1.2650-1.2680 (light bids) 1.2620-1.2650 (light bids) 1.2580-1.2610 (light bids)
EURJPY
Topside: 100.40-100.70 (light buy stops)Â 100.80-101.10 (light offers)
Downside: 99.50-99.80 (light sell stops) 99.00-99.30 (medium sell stops)
AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0200-1.0230 (medium buy stops) 1.0250-1.0280 (medium buy stops)Â
Downside 1.0130-1.0160 (medium bids) 1.0090-1.0120 (light bids)
22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q1 A -1.31B | C -1.145B | P -2.763B | R -2.833B
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) May A -0.66T | C -0.36T | P -0.48T | R -0.51T
0:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Apr A -1.40% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%
0:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Apr A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%
4:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Apr A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
G20:
G20 FINAL COMMUNIQUE-EURO ZONE G20 COUNTRIES “WILL TAKE ALLÂ NECESSARY POLICY MEASURES” TO ENSURE STABILITY, IMPROVE WORKINGÂ OF MARKETS AND BREAK THE FEEDBACK LOOP BETWEEN SOVEREIGNS ANDÂ BANKS
G20 FINAL COMMUNIQUE-LOOK FORWARD TO THE EURO AREA WORKING INÂ PARTNERSHIP WITH THE NEXT GREEK GOVERNMENT TO ENSURE THEY REMAINÂ ON THE PATH TO REFORM AND SUSTAINABILITY
G20 COMMUNIQUE-WE SUPPORT PLAN TO CONSIDER CONCRETE STEPS TOWARDÂ MORE INTEGRATED FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE, INCLUDING BANKINGÂ SUPERVISION, RESOLUTION AND RECAPITALIZATION, DEPOSIT INSURANCE
G20 COMMUNIQUE-WELCOME SPAIN’S PLAN TO RECAPITALIZE BANKS, EUROGROUP SUPPORT FOR SPAIN’S FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING AUTHORITY
G20 COMMUNIQUE-EUROPEAN FISCAL COMPACT, GROWTH-ENHANCINGÂ POLICIES, STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE IMPORTANT STEPS TOWARDS GREATERÂ FISCAL AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, LEAD TO SUSTAINABLE BORROWINGÂ COSTS
EUR:
Spain to Wait for Stress Test to Formally Request Bank-Bailout Funds
IMF’s Lagarde sees seeds of recovery for Europe
U.S. Geithner encouraged by Europe’s crisis plans
Hollande says worth exploring ESM bond buys
No silver bullet for Europe crisis-Obama
CNY:
China Vice Premier Li urges economic reform Xinhua
China Advisers Propose Easing Property Regulations in First-Tier Cities – Report
JPY:
Japan May Trade Deficit Y907.3B; Expected Deficit Y520B
BOJ May minutes: Europe woes may require action, a few members say
Toyota to cut capacity in Japan again-NIKKEI
Moody’s: consumption tax agreement positive for Japan
AUD:
Australia job vacancies up 3.4% in May-government
NZD:
NZ annual current account deficit worsens as trade fades
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·        EUR: Early trading was very quiet with little movement holding around the 1.2690 area, then we had the NZ number with 7 straight months of deficit and slowly sellers appeared as USD became king for the day, we slowly moved down to the 1.2662 level to set the low and we have remained in a range between the low and 1.2680 since. As you can see from the communique not awe-inspiring is it.
·        GBP: 1.5708 low on the NZD and G20 news and that was all she wrote, we did see some light EURGBP selling going through but that seems to be tempered with yesterday’s inflation news, high was made after the 6am cut off at 1.5731 area.
·        JPY: The Yen was dominated by carry trade selling with the NZDJPY cross in particular under pressure after the deficit number, this flowed into the AUDJPY this caused a drag on the USDJPY taking it from the 79.08 level back down to below 79.00 to touch just below the Japanese favourite number 78.80, from this support area we ticked up slowly to 78.90 but it was slow going.
·        AUD: While the NZD data effected the general direction of the Oz moving it from above 1.0192 down to 1.0170 the move was tempered as AUDNZD buyers moved in either taking new longs of cutting out old shorts, this said the Oz started to recover against the USD moving steadily back above 1.0180 as London moved into the market.
·        Overall: Very few surprises and although we saw the comments from G20 there was nothing to surprise really or that hadn’t been hinted to by the French during yesterday’s session, saying that one would suspect that the Germans will have more to say on the way the French wish to spend their money particularly in light of them deviating from their austerity plans, but that maybe for another day.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M May C -0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y May C 2.20% | P 2.40%
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Bank of England Minutes C 0—0—9 | P 0—0—9Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Change May C -3.0K | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -13.7KÂ Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate May C 4.90% | P 4.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Apr C 8.20% | P 8.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW Survey (Expectations) Jun P -4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories C -1.0M | P -0.2MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
16:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision C 0.25% | P 0.25%Â
18:15    USD      Fed Bernanke Press Conference                                                       Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.13 | 78.791
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26901 | 1.2662
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 100.359 | 99.816
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0193 | 1.0167
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7980 | 0.7945
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0195 | 1.0177
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20108 | 1.20094
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94858 | 0.9464
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5729 | 1.5710
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8069 | 0.80575
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Good luck
Andy