Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

Asian open and NYK Close

USDJPY 8040-80.55 80.444 | EURUSD 1.2555-58 1.25699 | EURJPY 101.00-10 101.097 | AUDUSD 1.0050-80 1.00649 | NZDUSD 0.7895-79.05 0.79059 | USDCAD 1.0245-1.0255 1.02447 | EURCHF 1.2005-1.20015 1.20086 | USDCHF 0.9560-0.9570 0.9553 | GBPUSD 1.5565-1.5575 1.55858 | EURGBP 0.8060-0.8070 0.80645 |

 

Weekend News

EUR:

Greece Seeks at Least Two-Year Extension to Bailout Targets
Merkel Parries Push for Euro Debt Plan as Growth Outline Agreed
German Referendum on Europe Is Possible, Schaeuble Tells Spiegel
CNY/USD:

Chinese Investment in U.S. Set to Double, China Daily Says
China, U.S. Cities, Companies Sign $3.4 Billion Contracts
CNY:

Chinese Officials Are Falsifying Data to Mask Slowdown, NYT Says
NOK:

Norway Oil Workers Shut Platforms as Mediation Talks Fail 
Asia:

KKR Secures $3 Billion for Asia Buyout Fund Targeting $6 Billion
JPY:

More Than 60 DPJ Lawmakers Oppose Japan Tax Bills, Yomiuri Says
Honda Motor to Shift Export Bases to U.S., Nikkei Reports
SEK/JPY:

Swedish retailer IKEA eyes investment in India
NATO/USD:

U.S. Denounces shooting down of Turkish F-4 Phantom by Syria as tensions rise.

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: A slow Asian session was followed by a drop on the London open as German IFO failed to sparkle, Asia’s high of 1.2560’s was followed in London by the low of the day just below 1.2520on the news, London recovered putting it back into the Asian range as bargain hunters appeared. NYK came in buying on the back of S&P’s opening higher and risk was back on but to be honest comments from a market stall holder in Pettycoat lane could have moved it there was that much interest out there before the weekend. The Euro rallied above 1.2580 on a couple of occasions during NYK before finishing the day just above the Asian range.

·         GBP: Cable struggled throughout the day’s session with no news to mention it stayed in a tight range around the 1.5600 level until the last few hours of NYK session when it dropped lower some late selling on the IMM chased the market lower but shorts cutting positions moved it higher towards the close recovering some of the losses to leave it at the bottom of that 1.5580 range.

·         JPY: The rise continued throughout the session Asia taking it as low as the 80.00 level before moving it to above 80.50 while that set the high for a good portion of the day the market struggled to move below 80.20 as USD buying in the pairing continued for most of the day. NYK moved it a little higher and the market went out around the 80.40 area.

·         AUD: Having fallen over the previous 24hrs on a long squeeze out, the market was less inclined to do much more than trade sideways, from the Asian highs of 1.0065 the market moved with the Euro on the IFO numbers but gradually recovered to the 1.0060 area over the next few hours pushing over the balance of the NYK session to above 1.0070 before settling slightly into the close.

·         Overall: The market seems a bit ticked off from being caught short then caught long, short term and medium term players seemed to be disinclined to do anything meaningful into the weekend and a dull day was had by all and not just Asia.

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

EUR        German IFO – Business Climate Jun A 105.3 | C 105.6 | P 106.9    

EUR        German IFO – Current Assessment Jun A 113.9 | C 112 | P 113.3 | R 113.2

EUR        German IFO – Expectations Jun A 97.3 | C 99.8 | P 100.9 | R 100.8

CAD       CPI M/M May A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%        

CAD       CPI Y/Y May A 1.20% | C 1.50% | P 2.00%              

CAD       BoC CPI Core M/M May A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%      

CAD       BoC CPI Core Y/Y May A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 2.10%          

 

For today

USDJPY
Topside: 80.60-80.90 (light buy stops) 81.00-81.30 (decent buy stops)  81.50-81.80 (light buy stops)
Downside: 80.00-80.25 (light sell stops) 79.50-79.80 (light bids) 79.00-79.30 (light bids) 78.50-78.80 (light bids)

EURUSD
Topside: 1.2570-1.2600 (medium offers) 1.2610-1.2640 (medium buy stops) 1.2650-1.2680 (light buy stops) 
Downside: 1.2470-1.2500 (light sell stops) 1.2420-1.2450 (medium sell stops) 1.2380-1.2410 (medium sell stops)

EURJPY
Topside: 101.20-101.50 (light offers)  101.70-102.00 (light buy stops)
Downside: 100.50-100.80 (light bids) AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0060-1.0090 (light offers) 1.0100-1.0130 (medium buy stops) 1.0150-1.0170 (medium buy stops)
Downside: 1.0000-1.0020 (medium bids) 0.9950-0.9980 (medium sell stops) 0.9900-0.9930 (light sell stops) 

 

AUD:

Russia To Allocate 1% Of Reserve Into AUD -Sources

CNY:

Qatar seeks $5 bln investment quota in China- report

Beijing VAT Tax Plan Still Lacks State Council Backing – Report

China should raise home ownership tax – think tank

JPY:

Moody’s: Japan’s Tri-Partisan Consumption Tax Deal Is Credit Positive

Japan PM support rebounds after tax deal

JPY/EUR:

Toyota to supply hybrid technology to BMW-Nikkei

GBP:

BoE’s Miles wants more QE to kick start economy FT

EUR/MXN:

AB InBev in talks to buy rest of Modelo-source

 

·         EUR: Opened off slightly from Friday’s close with no real news to mention the Euro continued to decline slowly through the session one supposes the impasse between Germany and the group wanting European bonds continues, it moved from a high of 1.2557 steadily down touching just above 1.2526 but no real volume seen.

·         GBP: Opened slightly stronger moving above the 1.5590 level in early trading before settling into a narrow range around the 1.5580 level into the London session.

·         JPY: Quiet early part to the session trading up above 80.80 however, fixing supply pushed it lower and it continued to slide after the fix trading down to a low of 80.20 on very quiet trading.

·         AUD: Opened slightly weaker and continued in that vein for the most part having moved up to 1.0053 in early trading it drifted off touching briefly below 1.0020 before recovering a little moving into London.

·         Overall: no big news to effect the market over the weekend and no data over the session to set it alight kept the USD up against most of the pairings.

 

 

 

Today’s data

Consensus = C  Previous = P Timings GMT

14:00     USD       New Home Sales May C                345K | P 343K    

 

Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Highs   Lows

USD/JPY               80.63 |  80.191

EUR/USD             1.2565 | 1.25283

EUR/JPY               101.10 | 100.51

AUD/USD            1.0055 | 1.0019

NZD/USD             0.7905 | 0.7859

USD/CAD             1.0273 | 1.0255

EUR/CHF              1.20119 | 1.201

USD/CHF             0.95859 | 0.95631

GBP/USD             1.5595 | 1.5551

EUR/GBP             0.8076 | 0.8038

 

Good luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.